Fantasy Football Takeaways: George Pickens Leads The Utilization Report For Week 13

Let's follow the data to identify the top waiver wire options, trade targets, upgrades and downgrades for Week 13 based on what we learned last week.

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1. George Pickens is in his sweet spot in Dallas.

In life, sometimes we need a change of scenery. Not every role or job is right for everyone. We all have strengths and weaknesses. Sometimes we mesh better with certain people and environments.

The goal is to find your sweet spot—that place where your talent and passion intersect with an organization's goals, strategy, and mission. When you find that place, it is a beautiful thing. Work doesn't feel like work. You excel at being you. And your company and the marketplace benefit because you are performing at a high level. Never stop until you find that spot, y'all!

After years of being misused or underutilized by the Steelers, George Pickens has found his sweet spot with the Cowboys and Dak Prescott. Dallas is using Pickens at every level of the field in an offense willing to embrace the passing game.

Pickens' catchable targets per game are up 25% versus last season (5.1 vs. 6.4). His 1.4 endzone targets per game—a 100% increase over last season—ranks second behind only Davante Adams. The Cowboys' offense reaches the red zone on 35% of their drives, the sixth-most in the NFL. That is a massive improvement over the 26% with the Steelers in 2024.

Pickens ranked 38th in fantasy points per game (12.3) and 23rd in Utilization Score (73) last season in Pittsburgh. Those numbers have skyrocketed to 19.7 (third) and 85 (sixth) in Dallas through 11 games in 2025.

Pickens' historical Utilization Score comparisons have averaged 17.7 fantasy points, with 88% finishing as top-12 WRs.

WR1 to WR6 performers: 41%
WR7 to WR12 performers: 47%
WR13 to WR18 performers: 13%

We rarely get two WRs from the same team in the top 12 in fantasy points per game, but there is a realistic shot with Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. At a minimum, we should have two top-18 options.

Will this be a long-term answer in Dallas? That is hard to say because Jerry Jones will need to pay up in a big way, given Pickens' production this season. But we can figure that part out later—for now, all we care about is the 2025 fantasy season.

Pickens is a mid-range WR1.

2. TreVeyon Henderson held onto the RB1 role in Rhamondre Stevenson's return.

From Week 9 to 11, with Rhamondre Stevenson out of the lineup, Henderson had an 83% snap share. He handled 67% of the rushing attempts and posted a 13% target share on a 74% route participation rate. Over that span, he had an 89 Utilization Score with 24.3 fantasy points per contest.

The snaps came down in Week 12 with the return of Stevenson, but the rookie held onto the majority of the work despite a fantasy box score dip to 11.1 points. Henderson had a 64% snap share, 67% rush share, and a 13% target share. He notched a 78 Utilization Score.

It's only a one-game sample, and we can't rule out a larger role for Stevenson as he gets healthier. However, it is a positive data point for Henderson. He finished the day with 22 combined opportunities between eight attempts and four targets.

Henderson's historical Utilization Score comps have averaged 15 fantasy points, and 95% of them have performed as top-24 RBs.

RB1 to RB6 performers: 13%
RB7 to RB12 performers: 23%
RB13 to RB18 performers: 33%
RB19 to RB24 performers: 27%
RB25 to RB30 performers: 3%

The Patriots will be without their starting left tackle, Will Campbell, and starting left guard, Jared Wilson, for an extended stretch. Campbell could be placed on IR for at least four games due to an MCL sprain. Wilson has a high-ankle sprain and is week-to-week.

On the bright side, the Patriots have a good schedule based on fantasy boost allowed to opposing RB units.

Week 13: Giants (+7.7)
Week 14: Bye
Week 15: Bills (+2.8)
Week 16: Ravens (+1.2)
Week 17: Jets (0.0)

Henderson is a mid-range to high-end RB2.

3. Kyle Monagai was the Bears RB1 after a D'Andre Swift fumble.

D'Andre Swift fumbled on the fourth drive of Chicago's Week 12 game against the Steelers. After that fumble, Monangai dominated the backfield. Below are Monagai's data points before and after the fumble:

Snaps: 39% → 63%
Attempts: 33% → 69%
Routes: 44% → 50%

After the fumble, Swift only handled 15% of the rushing attempts but retained a 39% route participation and played the majority of the two-minute offense snaps at 63%.

It's hard to know whether this will be a one-game warning shot at Swift or if this could be the excuse Ben Johnson needed to hand the reins over to the rookie. Both backs have been effective this year, each with their own strengths.

Swift vs. Monangai advanced data:

PFF Run Grade: 70.4, 74.3
Yards per attempt: 4.6, 4.7
Yards after contact: 2.6, 2.8
10-plus yard attempts: 14.8%, 10.1%
Missed tackles forced: 14.8%, 17%
Targets per route run (TPRR): 18%, 9%
Yards per route run (YPRR): 1.28, 0.69

The backs complement each other well, leaving the door open to a tighter split moving forward. Monangai has already improved his standing on early downs, taking over 33% of the rushing attempts in the two games before Week 12. The team has confidence in him, and taking over the lead early-down role isn't out of the question.

Scenario 1: The backfield returns to the recent splits before Week 12.

In this scenario, Swift reclaims 55-60% of the work on the ground and is the primary passing-down back. Monangai handles the rest of the work in the run game but is limited in his passing-down role.

Swift is a mid-range RB2, and Monangai is an RB4.

Scenario 2: The splits tighten towards a 1A/1B timeshare.

In this scenario, the two backs split the rushing work near evenly, with game script driving who leads the team each week. Monangai gobbles up opportunities inside the five-yard line, but Swift still gets some and handles the majority of passing-down opportunities.

Both backs are mid-range to low-end RB3s, similar to what we saw from the Seahawks with Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet for much of 2025.

Scenario 3: Monangai becomes the lead back.

In this scenario, Monangai takes over the majority of the rushing duties with Swift operating as a change-of-pace option and handling the two-minute offense.

Monangai upgrades to low-end RB2 territory with upside, and Swift falls to high-end RB4 status playing a role similar to Tyjae Spears but in a more potent offense.

Final takeaway: I will close the gap in the workloads in the rest-of-season projections to better mirror Scenario 2, given Monangai was already gaining ground in recent weeks. We can adjust from there after Week 13. He is available in 44% of Yahoo leagues.

4. Kenneth Walker's role has grown over the last three games.

Walker has averaged 13.7 points with a 63 Utilization Score over the last three contests. Over that span, he has improved his snaps and rushing attempts in each game.

Snaps: 41%, 51%, 64%
Attempts: 34%, 48%, 61%

In the last two games with a snap share north of 50%, Walker's Utilization Score has surged to 73 with 16.6 fantasy points per game. He has RB9 and RB15 performances.

If that Utilization Score holds, it would be significant for Walker's rest-of-season outlook.

Using that Utilization Score, Walker's historical comps have averaged 14.1 points with 84% reaching top-24 RB status.

RB1 to RB6 performers: 7%
RB7 to RB12 performers: 19%
RB13 to RB18 performers: 26%
RB19 to RB24 performers: 33%
RB25 to RB30 performers: 16%

Walker UPGRADES to low-end RB2 territory and offers borderline RB1 upside if the small-sample trend continues.

5. Is Michael Wilson's two-game breakout real?

In two games without Marvin Harrison Jr., Wilson has averaged 27.7 fantasy points (third) with a 96 Utilization Score (tied for second). Over that span, he leads the NFL with 16 targets and 185.5 air yards per contest.

This is truly amazing stuff, and the intensity of Wilson's breakout is something that we can't ignore. Still, quantifying what this means for the rest of the season isn't easy. First, Wilson had done virtually nothing over the first 2.5 years of his career as a starter. Before the last two games, his underlying numbers have been pedestrian.

PPR points per game: 7.6
Targets per game: 4.4
Target share: 13.7%
TPRR: 13.8%
Air yards per game: 50.1
YPRR: 1.07

Historically, those numbers are well below WR5 territory, based on data from 2011 to 2024.

Second, we are dealing with a tiny sample of two games. While this example isn't as strong, it works for illustrative purposes: Kendrick Bourne in Weeks 5 and 6 this year. Over that period, Bourne had a 91 Utilization Score with 21.7 points per game. He ranked fifth in both categories over that span.

Since then, Bourne has fallen back to earth as Jauan Jennings, George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall have gotten healthy. From Weeks 7 to 11, Bourne has averaged 4.8 points with a 27 Utilization Score. Quentin Johnston is another good example—he was looking like a year-three WR1 breakout over the first four games, averaging 19.9 points. Since then, he has averaged 8.5.

My point isn't that Wilson's breakout isn't real. It could be. But we also see some wild things in small samples, even from non-elite talents like Bourne. That means we should consider the possibility that variance is a significant factor when evaluating the low-end of Wilson's rest-of-season outlook. The tendency across our industry is to latch onto the most recent performances—and again, that isn't always a bad thing. Sometimes it works out, but many times it doesn't.

The big takeaway here is that there is a wide range of outcomes with Wilson.

Scenario 1: Wilson's breakout is real, and he is a WR1.

The good news for Wilson is that Years 2 and 3 are when WRs most often break out (76%). As a third-year player, Wilson could be hitting his stride.

It is worth noting that 71% of WR1 breakouts have come from players who already had a WR2 finish (13.5 to 15.9 PPR points per game) or a WR3 finish (11.5 to 13.4) on their resume.

Before this season, Wilson has posted WR5 (8.7 PPG) and WR6 (7.9 PPG) campaigns. Breakouts from that range are rare, but they have happened. Since 2011, four of 28 WRs (14%) who emerged as WR1s in Year 2 or 3 had a WR5 or worse finish as their previous best fantasy finish.

The return of Marvin Harrison Jr. will be the test. Even if Harrison isn't the prospect we thought he was, do we believe he disappears? That wasn't the case before his injury; it was actually the opposite, with Wilson as the odd man out. That being said, head coach Jonathan Gannon is now on record affirming that Wilson will get more opportunities going forward.

There is an outside chance that Wilson is a long-term WR1. However, the odds that Wilson remains on a heater for the next several weeks with Jacoby Brissett are slightly better.

Scenario 2: Wilson's breakout is real, but he isn't a WR1.

While morphing into a Year 3 WR1 hasn't been easy for players with Wilson's profile, rising to WR2 status has been more attainable. Since 2011, 43% of Year 2 and Year 3 WR2 breakouts had a previous best finish of WR5 or lower. Davante Adams is one example.

The return of Harrison represents a similar hurdle in this scenario, but if the Cardinals' offense remains hot, Brissett could support three potent fantasy weapons.

Wilson entering WR2 territory the rest of the way is a more reasonable outlook on his rest-of-season ceiling. This scenario would place his floor in WR3-WR4 territory.

Scenario 3: Wilson's breakout isn't real.

In this scenario, Wilson reverts to a near-unusable fantasy asset for the rest of the season. His breakout would be attributed to small-sample variance, similar to Bourne. While no one wants to hear this, Scenario 3 is more likely than Scenario 1.

Final takeaway: As usual, I take the middle ground on these scenarios based on my experience working with this kind of data—this stuff isn't easy to predict, y'all! Wilson is a strong WR2 while Harrison is out, but is a WR3 to WR4 when he returns.

The beauty is that you get to make your own choice. That is why I provide you with the three scenarios. They are all possible to varying degrees.

6. Utilization Score Under & Overperformers

The Utilization Score is made up of the fantasy data points that have historically correlated the most strongly with future fantasy success. It is a similar but different concept compared to expected fantasy points. How it differs:

Accounts for snaps and routes in addition to attempts and targets.
Accounts for catchable targets and catchable air yards.
The underlying role accounts for ~75% of a player's Utilization Score.
Uses fantasy points per game (PPG) as a proxy for talent (i.e., has the player done something with their opportunities). Fantasy PPG is worth ~25% of a player's Utilization Score.

Underperformers are candidates for positive regression, making them potential buy-low targets. Overperformers are candidates for negative regression, making them sell-high options.

Saquon Barkley | RB | Eagles (positive regression candidate)

85 Utilization Score for the season
92 Utilization Score over the last four games
17.2 PPG over the last four games
Utilization Score comps: 19.1 PPG
Rest-of-season range of outcomes:
- RB1 to RB6: 72%
- RB7 to RB12: 20%
- RB13 to RB18: 8%

Javonte Williams | RB | Cowboys (positive regression candidate)

83 Utilization Score for the season
73 Utilization Score over the last four games (fantasy points are down, but not opportunities)
11.9 PPG over the last four games
Utilization Score comps: 16.4 PPG
Rest-of-season range of outcomes:
- RB1 to RB6: 23%
- RB7 to RB12: 40%
- RB13 to RB18: 30%
- RB19 to RB24: 7%

Kyren Williams | RB | Rams (negative regression candidate)

78 Utilization Score for the season
71 Utilization Score over the last four games (losing opportunities)
15.5 PPG over the last four games
Utilization Score comps: 14.4
- RB1 to RB6: 8%
- RB7 to RB12: 21%
- RB13 to RB18: 26%
- RB19 to RB24: 34%
- RB25 to RB30: 11%

CeeDee Lamb | WR | Cowboys (positive regression candidate)

87 Utilization Score over the last four games
14.8 PPG
Utilization Score comps: 18 PPG
- WR1 to WR6: 59%
- WR7 to WR12: 37%
- WR13 to WR18: 4%

DJ Moore | WR | Bears (negative regression candidate)

55 Utilization Score over the last four games (Bears rotating skill players more)
12.4 PPG
Utilization Score comps: 10 PPG
- WR19 to WR24: 1%
- WR25 to WR36: 10%
- WR37 to WR48: 37%
- WR49 to WR60: 40%
- WR61 or below: 12%

7. Utilization Score Trends

Trending Up

Sean Tucker | RB | Bucs: Tucker has improved his Utilization Score by 14 points over the last four games. Over that span, he has surpassed Rachaad White as the primary ball carrier with 49% of the rushing attempts and a 54 Utilization Score. Over the last two games, he has handled 59% and 50% of the attempts with a 67 Utilization Score. Tucker is a mid-range RB3 with upside while Bucky Irving is out. Irving could return this week, but Tucker is now the preferred handcuff, and he may force a three-way committee.
Christian Watson | WR | Packers: Watson has upped his Utilization Score by nine points during the last month. In a near full-time role (84% route participation) over the last three outings, he has a 68 Utilization Score with 12.3 points per game. His historical comps have averaged 13.1 points with the majority (43%) performing as WR3s.
Theo Johnson | TE | Giants: Johnson has increased his Utilization Score by four points since Week 9. He has averaged 10.9 points with an 79 Utilization Score over that stretch. His historical comps have averaged 11.7 points, with 89% securing a top-12 campaign.

Trending Down

Jaylen Warren | RB | Steelers: The Steelers have reverted to a split backfield over the last two games. Some of this could be due to Warren's calf injury, but Kenneth Gainwell has played well on his opportunities. Warren remains the primary ball carrier, but Gainwell is working in more and is leading the way on pass downs. Warren's Utilization Score is down seven points over the last four outings. His Utilization Score in healthy contests now sits at 69. Warren's historical comps have averaged 13.3 points, with 58% finishing as low-end RB2s or high-end RB3s.
Justin Jefferson | WR | Vikings: The J.J. McCarthy experiment continues to spiral, and his supporting cast is swirling the drain. Over the last four games, Jefferson's Utilization Score has fallen by four points. His score over that span is 73 with 11.1 PPG. The intent to get Jefferson the ball (34% target share) remains strong, giving him a chance to rebound, but this is one of the worst passing environments in the NFL. Jefferson's historical comparisons have averaged 14.4 points, with 13% finishing as WR7-WR12s, 28% as WR13-WR18s, 29% as WR19-WR24s, and 21% as WR25-WR30s. Damn. McCarthy was placed in concussion protocol on Monday, so we could see Max Brosmer under center.
David Njoku | TE | Browns: Njoku's Utilization Score has plummeted 11 points since Week 8. He is a part-time TE with a 52% route participation rate, playing mostly behind Harold Fannin Jr. His Utilization Score for the season is a 55, and sits at 38 over the last four games. Njoku's historical comparisons have been of the low-end TE2 variety.

8. Waiver Wire Roundup

RB

Kyle Monangai: See No. 3 above. Monangai is available in 44% of Yahoo leagues.
Kenneth Gainwell: Gainwell has delivered 29.5 and 18.2 fantasy points over the last two games. Warren's calf injury opened the door for more opportunities, and Gainwell kicked it in. While expecting that sort of production the rest of the way is unrealistic, Gainwell is a premium pass-catching back. He ranks fourth in TPRR (25%) out of backs with at least 175 routes. That trails only Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey and De'Von Achane. Arthur Smith is a game-plan-specific coach, so predicting Gainwell's weekly Utilization isn't easy. However, his historical Utilization Score (60) comps have averaged 12.6 points with 52% securing a top-24 finish. The majority of his comps have been low-end RB2s or high-end RB3s (55%). Gainwell is a high-end RB3 with contingent RB1 upside if Warren misses time. He is available in 46% of leagues.
Devin Neal | Saints: Alvin Kamara suffered an MCL injury in Week 12 and could miss extended time. Given the Saints' record (2-9) and the fact that Kamara has another year remaining on his contract before the team has an out, it won't be surprising if we don't see him again this season. After Kamara's exit, Neal played 88% of the snaps but only accounted for 35% of the rushing attempts, with Taysom Hill leading the team at 40%. Neal posted an 80% route participation rate and a 19% target share. Audric Estime was inactive and could figure into the ground attack in the coming weeks. Neal is the frontrunner for RB1 duties with Kamara out, and we can't rule out a larger workload on the ground. Neal should be rostered in deeper formats as an RB3 with upside. He is available in 97% of leagues.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Commanders: Rodriguez took over the lead position in a three-way committee with 47% of the rushing attempts in Week 11. With Washington on bye in Week 12. Rodriguez was dropped in many leagues. Rodriguez is a low-end RB3 who could move up the ranks if his role expands. He is available in 84% of leagues.
Dylan Sampson | Browns: Quinshon Judkins missed some reps in Week 12 after being evaluated for a concussion. Sampson saw his largest rush share (27%) since Week 1, and continued to shine in the passing game with 29% TPRR. Of RBs with at least 150 routes, Sampson ranks second in TPRR at 26% on the season. Should Judkins miss any time, Sampson would be a borderline RB2 with upside. He is available in 89% of leagues.
Raheem Mostert | Raiders: Ashton Jeanty suffered an ankle injury at the end of the Raiders' Week 12 game. It isn't believed to be serious, but Mostert is the RB2 in Las Vegas. Mostert would be an RB3 with RB2 upside if Jeanty misses time and is available in 99% of leagues.
Malik Davis | Cowboys: Jaydon Blue has been inactive for three straight games, with Davis taking over the RB2 duties in Dallas. Should Javonte Williams miss any time, Davis would be the favorite for RB1 duties. Davis is available in 99% of leagues and is an RB6 stash option in deeper formats.

WR

Jayden Higgins | Texans: Higgins has improved his route participation in each of the last four contests (43%, 53%, 57%, 68%). Over the last three games, he has a 21% target share, 12.8 PPG, and a 66 Utilization Score. The Round 2 2025 NFL Draft pick has the inside track on the WR2 duties for the Texans the rest of the way and could be a late-season breakout. Higgins Utilization Score comparisons have averaged 12.8 points, with the majority operating as WR3s. However, if his role continues to improve, the ceiling is in the WR2 range. He is available in 78% of leagues.
John Metchie | Jets: Metchie stepped into a full-time role in Week 12 with a 91% route participation rate and a 27% target share. He finished the day with a 71 Utilization Score and 18.5 fantasy points. The 2022 second-round draft pick has failed to make an impact to this point, but is in line for the biggest opportunity of his career as a starter with the Jets. Metchie is a WR4 who could surprise with WR3 production down the stretch and is available in 99% of leagues.
Jayden Reed | Packers: The Packers opened the 21-day practice window on Reed. The third-year player will likely frustrate us with his playing time, but he is a high-end playmaker in an offense in need of an underneath and intermediate target earner with Tucker Kraft out for the season. Reed will be a WR4 upon his return, but offers WR2 upside if his role expands. He is available in 64% of leagues.
Adonai Mitchell | Jets: Similar to Metchie, Mitchell has an opportunity to see the most significant playing time of his career. In Week 12, he registered an 85% route participation rate and a 27% target share with 185 air yards. Mitchell only generated 6.2 fantasy points, but he offers significant upside. Yes, he has been a maddeningly inconsistent WR to this point in his career, but he has the traits to get hot and could surprise in the fantasy boxscore—especially if the Jets decide not to bring Garrett Wilson back. Mitchell is a boom-bust WR5 with WR2 upside, should things finally click. He is available in 98% of leagues.
Chimere Dike | Titans: With Calvin Ridley out for the season, Dike is locked into 3WR sets. In Week 12, Tennessee's fourth-round draft pick notched a 90% route participation rate and 19% target share on his way to 15.4 points and a 67 Utilization Score. If your league rewards special teams points to WRs, you picked up another six points on his punt return for a TD. Elic Ayomanor was out due to injury, so deciphering Dike's role moving forward is a bit shrouded. However, he may be the team's WR1 the rest of the way. Dike is a WR4 and is available in 86% of leagues.
Parker Washington | Jaguars: Washington has averaged 11.3 points with a 57 Utilization Score in three games without Brian Thomas in the lineup. Thomas appears on track to return in Week 13, which clouds Washington's outlook along with the arrival of Jakobi Meyers and the return of Brenton Strange. In a Jaguars offense with a struggling QB that wants to run the rock (-4% dropback rate over expected in four games since the bye), that isn't a great recipe. However, Washington could be a top-two option for Jacksonville the rest of the way. Washington is a mid-range WR4 and is available in 60% of leagues.
Luther Burden | Bears: Burden has taken over the WR3 role in Chicago over the last two weeks with a 61% route participation rate and a 17% target share. He needs more playing time to enter fantasy lineups, but the trend is in the right direction. Burden is a WR5 with WR2 contingent upside if the team gives him more playing time or if he leapfrogs DJ Moore on the depth chart. He is available in 89% of leagues.

TE

Brenton Strange | Jaguars: Strange returned to the lineup with a bang, delivering 14.3 fantasy points and an 81 Utilization Score. Strange is a high-end TE2 with low-end TE1 upside. He is available in 87% of leagues.
Colston Loveland | Bears: Loveland's playing time has been volatile over the last three games, but he played ahead of Cole Kmet in Week 12 with a 68% route participation rate. Loveland notched a 73 Utilization Score and 14.9 fantasy points. Loveland is a mid-range TE2 with high-end TE1 upside if he ever secures a full-time role. He is available in 57% of leagues.

Utilization Bytes Ahead Of Week 13

Running Back

Aaron Jones | Vikings: Jones remained the RB1 in Week 12 with a 66% snap share, but Jordan Mason was more involved in the rushing attack. Jones had handled 69% and 73% of the attempts in the previous two games, but that fell to 47% in Week 12. Jones remained active in the passing attack with a 22% target share. Jones has a 78 Utilization Score in three games since returning to the lineup. His historical comparisons have averaged 14.7 points.
Derrick Henry | Ravens: Baltimore is using heavy-personnel groupings and pounding the rock (see Team Trends below), with Henry as the centerpiece. He has delivered 20.2 and 22.8 fantasy points in the last two outings. He gets the best RB matchup in fantasy in two of his next three matchups, with two dates with the Bengals. Henry has averaged 16.9 points per game since Lamar Jackson returned to the lineup. He is a low-end RB1.
Emanuel Wilson | Packers: Wilson handled 74% of the rushing attempts, bogarting 28 totes with Josh Jacobs out in Week 12. Wilson notched a 75 Utilization Score and 26.5 fantasy points. Chris Brooks was active on passing downs, but Wilson was the clear-cut RB1 on the ground. Wilson is a mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside in games without Jacobs.
Kareem Hunt | Chiefs: Hunt has averaged 17.7 attempts and two targets in three games without Isiah Pacheco. Over that span, he has averaged 15.2 points per contest with a 78 Utilization Score. Based on that sample, Hunt's historical Utilization Score comparisons have averaged 15 points per game with a 36% operating as RB1s and 60% as RB2s. Hunt is a mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside without Pacheco in the lineup.
Tyrone Tracy | Giants: In four games without Cam Skattebo, Tracy has averaged 14.5 attempts and 3.5 targets. He has a 68 Utilization Score with 12.2 fantasy points per contest. He notched a season-high 82 Utilization Score in Week 12 with 16 points. He collected a 71% snap share and a 72% route participation rate, also season highs. Tracy's historical comps have averaged 13.1 points with the majority finishing as low-end RB2s or high-end RB3s (60%).
Woody Marks | Texans: Marks has disappointed fantasy managers with 6.1 and 7.9-point fantasy outings over the last two games. However, he has taken over as the clear-cut RB1 in Houston over the last three contests with a 72% route participation rate and a 74% rush share. He has a 67 Utilization Score over that timeframe. His historical comparisons have averaged 12.9 points with 58% finishing as low-end RB2s or high-end RB3s.

Wide Receiver

Chris Olave | Saints: Olave has averaged 15.4 points with a 79 Utilization Score in three games with Tyler Shough at QB. In the two games since the departure of Rashid Shaheed, he has a 91 Utilization Score with 18.7 points per game. He has averaged 10.5 targets and 150.5 air yards in those two games. Olave's historical Utilization Score comparisons have averaged 16 PPG, with 53% reaching WR1 territory and 40% finishing as WR2s. He is a borderline WR1.
Emeka Egbuka | Buccaneers: Egbuka dudded again with 6.2 points in Week 12 against the Rams. The most interesting part about the rookie is that his targets (10 per game) and air yards (114 per game) from Week 7 to Week 12 are higher than Weeks 1 to 5 (7.6 and 107). The difference? His catchable targets and air yards are down. His catchable target rate over the last five games is at 48% compared to 76% to start the year. Egbuka's Utilization Score now sits at 75 for the season. His historical comparisons have averaged 14.8 PPG with 22% finishing as low-end WR1s and 55% securing WR2 finishes.
Mitchell Tinsley | Bengals: Tinsley flashed this preseason, and we saw it again in Week 12 with Ja'Marr Chase suspended and Tee Higgins leaving the game with a concussion. Tinsley beat Christian Gonzalez for a TD, making him only the second opponent to do so in 2025. He finished the day with an 18% target share on a 77% route participation rate. Tinsley is the favorite to start opposite Chase in Week 13, with Higgins ruled out for a Thanksgiving matchup against the Ravens. Tinsley is available 99%+ if you are in a SICKO league and need help.
Rome Odunze | Bears: The Bears are rotating their WRs over the last three games. Odunze has route participation rates of 83%, 78%, and 82% in those games, which isn't ideal—especially on a team running the ball more (see Team Trends below). Odunze's historical Utilization Score (70) comparisons have averaged 13.8 points. The majority have finished as WR2s (46%) or WR3s (34%).
Stefon Diggs | Patriots: Diggs saw a season-high 89% route participation rate in Week 11, but he returned to part-time status with a mark of 54% in Week 12. That was a season low. The New England offense remains a mystery. Diggs is by far their No. 1 target earner with a 24% TPRR, but his playing time is unpredictable. Diggs is a mid-range WR3 with high-end WR2 upside should he ever secure a full-time role.
Wan'Dale Robinson | Giants: Robinson has a 77 Utilization Score with 14.2 PPG since the loss of Malik Nabers. In Week 12, he registered his highest air yards total (185) of the season with Jameis Winston pushing the ball downfield. Robinson is a high-end WR3 with WR1 upside in games with Winston.

Tight End

Hunter Henry | Patriots: Henry faced the worst TE defense in the NFL in Week 12 against the Bengals. He responded with his best performance of the year with 24.5 points and a 98 Utilization Score on nine targets (32%). Henry's Utilization Score now sits at 70 for the season. His historical comparisons have averaged 10.3 points per game, with the majority finishing as low-end TE1s.
Mike Gesicki | Bengals: Gesicki returned to the lineup in Week 12 and led the TE room with a 67% route participation rate. Last season in games without Tee Higgins, Gesicki averaged 13.4 points with a 77 Utilization Score in five games with Joe Burrow. With Higgins out this coming week, the veteran TE could see a larger workload. Gesicki is available in 98% of leagues.

Team Trends

We now have five weeks of data for most teams, making it a good time to examine team-level trends that affect fantasy production. You can find the data across all 32 NFL teams in the Team Styles tab of the Utilization Report tools.

Redzone Drive Rate vs. Touchdowns Drive Rate: Percentage of drives that reach the red zone versus how often the team is scoring a touchdown per drive. Large deltas indicate room for positive or negative regression.
- Chiefs: 15% (45% vs. 30%, up one spot)
- Saints: 13% (26% vs. 13%, up two)
- Cardinals: 12% (35% vs. 23%, down two)
- Packers: 12% (39% vs. 28%, down one)
- Panthers: 12% (32% vs. 20%, pre MNF)
- Jaguars: 12% (33% vs. 23%, even)
Dropback Over Expected (DBOE): How often teams pass the ball compared to their peers when considering the score differential over the last five weeks:
- Raiders: 8% (Chip Kelly fired)
- Cardinals: 8%
- Colts: 6%
- Chiefs: 5%
- Bengals: 4%
- Rams: 4%
  ——
- Buccaneers: -6%
- Panthers: -6%
- Giants: -6%
- Jaguars: -7%
- Dolphins: -8%
- Ravens: -9%
- Jets: -11%
- Commanders: -12%
- Other notable DBOE trends:
  - Bears: -4% DBOE in seven games since their bye week
  - Cardinals: 6% DBOE in six games with Jacoby Brissett as the starter
  - Titans: 3% DBOE in five games under Mike McCoy
  - Jaguars: -4% DBOE in four games since their bye week
  - Vikings: 0% DBOE in four games since J.J. McCarthy's return
  - Lions: 4% DBOE in three games with Dan Campbell calling plays
  - Saints: -6% DBOE in three games with Tyler Shough as the starter
  - Packers: -10% DBOE in the last two games with Jordan Love nursing an AC joint that occurred in the second quarter of Week 11
  - Commanders: -13% DBOE in the last two games with Marcus Mariota as the starter
  - Giants: -13% DBOE in two games under Mike Kafka
  - Falcons: -6% DBOE in the first game with Kirk Cousins as the starter (with Drake London out)
Neutral Playclock: Teams that are leaving more or less time on the playclock when the score is within three points (neutral situations) over the last five weeks. The NFL average is 8.3 seconds.
- Cowboys: 13.2
- Saints: 10.6
- Bengals: 10.2
- Chargers: 10.1
- Lions: 9.9
- Buccaneers: 6.5
- Jaguars: 6.2
- Cardinals: 4.6
Play action pass rate: Teams that are utilizing play action the most per dropback over the last five weeks, which adds value to WRs and TEs on a per-route basis in fantasy:
- Rams: 44%
- Bears: 35%
- Colts: 34%
- Dolphins: 34%
- Ravens: 32%
- Lions: 32%
- Commanders: 31%
- Chargers: 30%
- Seahawks: 29%
- Cowboys: 28%
  ——
- Browns: 21%
- Falcons: 21%
- 49ers: 19%
- Saints: 18%
- Bengals: 16%
Additional Team Trends:
- The Ravens have utilized 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE → 3 WRs) on a league-low 26% of plays since Lamar Jackson returned to the lineup in Week 9. The trend began before Rashod Bateman's injury. They have used 21 personnel (2RB, 1 TE), getting their fullback, Patrick Ricard (aka, Pancake Pat), involved on 21% of plays—the second-most, behind the 49ers (46%) over that period. Baltimore has used 22 personnel (2 RBs, 2 TEs), a league-leading 18%. The Ravens are opting to play bully ball down the stretch.
- The Rams have historically been one of the most 11-personnel-heavy teams in the NFL. Over their first seven games of 2025, they ranked second at 75%. In four games since their Week 8 bye, that has fallen to 57%. Over that span, they have used 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs) on 36% of plays. Even the 3TE King, Arthur Smith, can't keep up with that. The Steelers rank second at 19%.
- The Seahawks have deployed 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE) on 50% of plays in two games with Rashid Shaheed. That is a 15 percentage-point increase over their average in the first nine games.

Players Mentioned in this Article

GeorgePickens
WRDAL
PPG
8.77
MichaelWilson
WRARI
PPG
7.03
KennethWalker
RBSEA
PPG
10.58
Proj
16.67
TreVeyonHenderson
RBNE
PPG
8.93
Proj
7.35