Fantasy Football Week 1 DraftKings DFS Picks: Bo Nix-Courtland Sutton Stack And More
Geoff Ulrich provides advice, strategy and recommendations for Week 1 of the fantasy football season, targeting DFS Picks for DraftKings.
Week 1 of the NFL season is here, which means it's time to switch your focus from those season-long redrafts to daily fantasy lineup building.
Today’s goal? Picks for DraftKings GPPs and the Fantasy Football Millionaire.
I’ll be breaking down a couple of my favorite stacks here every week—and also going through each specific play below—while also highlighting a few GPP “Island” and “Min-Price” plays that I think offer great 5x plus blowup potential, with (hopefully) lower ownership.
These plays and salaries will be specific to DraftKings and their salary cap contests.
However, since we’re also relying on the FantasyLife+ projections, tools and advice, the specific game matchups and correlations (aka–game stacks) are things you can apply to lineup building across the DFS industry.
Hint: Use Code GRIND for 20% off a FantasyLife+ subscription today
If you'd like my favorite plays and GPP targets that are specific for FanDuel, you can also find that here.
Let’s dive in. Week 1!!
DraftKings Week 1 NFL DFS Picks
The Broncos ONSLAUGHT
- Bo Nix (6300)
- Courtland Sutton (6000) AND Marvin Mims (4500)
- Comeback Play: Calvin Ridley (5000) or Elic Ayomanor (3100)
In our weekly projections this week, Bo Nix (6300) has the third-highest ceiling rating on the main slate this week. It makes sense when you look at the matchup. Nix was a beast at home last year (2.5 TDs per game and a 102 passer rating in Denver) and is playing as an -8.5 favorite with Denver having a 25.5 implied team total.
He’s also attached to a head coach in Sean Payton who loves running up the score in these spots vs weaker competition.
Despite all this positivity, I don’t see Denver’s passing game being popular in GPPs this week ... at all. Rushing QBs like Justin Fields and Drake Maye are under 6k, and it doesn’t take too much to get up to a Jayden Daniels (7000) or Joe Burrow (6900) either.
At receiver, despite some talent behind him, I fully expect Sutton to be the main target for Nix again, making him the easy correlation play I’d target first. L'Jarius Sneed figures to shadow, but he’s been working back from a long injury layoff and is still not practicing in full, so it’s a matchup I can see Sutton winning early in the year.
Marvin Mims is the home run play we all love at Fantasy Life, and should draw secondary coverage.
If we do get the pop from Denver, it should also help Calvin Ridley to fulfill Ian Hartitz’s prediction of leading the league in targets this season. Even in a poor matchup against Pat Surtain, Ridley has value this week at just 5000, given the cheap price, the potential for lots of garbage-time action and a higher target volume.
🥵 Alternative Stack—HotAtlanta
- Michael Penix (5600)
- Drake London (6600) AND Kyle Pitts (4300)
- Comeback Play: Mike Evans (6600) or Emeka Egbuka (4600)
Some quick notes on Penix and Atlanta below.
- Potential for condensed target share with Mooney potentially injured/out
- Pitts (avg 4.3 rec and 67 yards in six games vs TB) and London (avg 7.0 rec and 94 yards vs TB in six games) have dominated Tampa Bay
- Strong rush defense by Atlanta, but a weaker secondary (3rd most FPG to WRs in 2024), making it a great spot for Evans or Egbuka to benefit from a pass-friendly game plan
- Potentially season-low salaries on Penix, London and Egbuka
🏝️ The “Be Early” Island Targets
- TreVeyon Henderson (5500)
- Jameson Williams (5500)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (5800)
I expect the Patriots to deploy a ton of TreVeyon Henderson from the get-go this season, especially as a receiver. They don’t have a true alpha No. 1 WR, their O-Line is still bad (ranked 29th by PFF), and their other RB has fumbling issues and doesn’t have nearly the receiving profile or big-play ability that Henderson does.
Williams has been getting great reviews all camp, and new Lions OC John Morton has been talking about wanting to take more deep shots to Williams this season. While a lot of people will likely be looking to get exposure to this game via the starting RBs, Williams has blowup potential and should come with far less ownership.
I’m going to nominate JSN for the most mispriced player on this slate. A condensed target share, an accurate QB, and a home game against a secondary that has dealt with injuries all offseason? Sign me up. It all speaks to the explosive upside Freedman laid out for JSN perfectly in his Week 1 Rankings column.
🌑 Moonshots near the Min:
- Dontayvion Wicks (3400)
- Jaylin Noel (3100)
- Hunter Renfrow (3200)
Renfrow is suddenly the starting slot WR for the Panthers, and it’s almost like no one cares. Starting slot receivers almost always have value, but especially in full PPR formats, and even more especially against weak secondaries like Jacksonville (5th most FPG allowed to WRs in 2024).
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Christian Kirk is hurt and going to sit out a game. That means rookie Noel should get some slot work and see more of the field against the Rams. Noel has sub-4.4 speed and, as Ian Hartitz pointed out in his Texans preview, has strong comps and was a consistent winner on deep targets in college.
Wicks’ range of outcomes for Week 1 is massive. He could be very limited (calf) or even sit. Or, with Jayden Reed also playing through injury, he could end up being the focal point of the passing game vs. a Lions secondary that bleeds receptions and big plays to WRs (2nd most FPG to WRs in 2024). It’s all on the table for the Separation King.
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