WR Rankings For Week 1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Could Explode On Sunday

This is my 10th season writing the weekly piece now known as Freedman Favorites, which this year will be split into four separate positional breakdowns (QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs).

In the olden days, my articles were intentional tomes. I tried to cram into them every actionable insight I could find.

Now, I strive for brevity—for the sake of my readers, editors, family, and sanity. I enjoy beating dead horses, but not everyone shares my sickness.

For the past few years, not unlike a '90s rock band playing an unplugged set, I've steadfastly endeavored to strip everything down to its essential purple core. (Yes, that's a Stone Temple Pilots reference.)

Instead of talking about all the players in a slate, I now focus on the guys I like. And instead of giving you 5-8 data points on a player, I now give the 2-3 most important.

The older I get, the more valuable I realize time is—and I don't want to waste it for anyone with a piece longer than necessary.

With that in mind, let's get into the Week 1 WR edition of Freedman's Favorites.

But first, as always, some notes.

Freedman's Favorites From His Wide Receiver Rankings for Week 1

In this piece I highlight some WRs I expect to perform better than they usually do. Basically, these are guys I'm upgrading this week.

Rankings, Projections & Newsletter: I think of this piece as a companion to my weekly rankings and my weekly projections, which is where any updated opinions will manifest after article submission. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Access: To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

Schedule: I plan to abide by the following rankings and projections schedule this season.

Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
Sun AM: Revise rankings
Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better. Not bad.

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Cohesion: While my positional breakdowns are published separately, I think of them as comprising one larger whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 1 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).

Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Tight Ends (to be released)

Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Malik Nabers (Giants) at Commanders

I like Malik Nabers a lot this season: I have him projected for an NFL-high 167 targets this year—and that might be too low.

Last year as a rookie he was the No. 1 WR in target share (35%) and No. 2 in Utilization Score (91, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). With that elite usage, he had 109-1,204-7 receiving on 170 targets in 15 games.

He's still competing for targets with WRs Wan'Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton, and he still has HC Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka overseeing the offense, so I don't see why his utilization would decrease—and it might increase if he manages to become even more dominant in his second season.

And his QB situation has improved with the addition of Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Jaxson Dart this offseason.

So I like Nabers this year—and I especially like him this week against the Commanders, who last year were No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.125, per RBs Don't Matter).

Lining up most out wide to the right, Nabers is likely to face off most with rookie CB Trey Amos, who might be a fine cover man one day, but right now he has zero snaps of NFL experience.

Good luck to him.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs. 49ers

I'm skeptical of both QB Sam Darnold and OC Klint Kubiak, but with WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett no longer on the team, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a real chance to build on last year's 100-1,130-6 receiving breakout campaign.

The 49ers defense could bounce back this year with the return of DC Robert Saleh, but the secondary could be vulnerable in the first month. This offseason, the 49ers lost CB Charvarius Ward and SS Talanoa Hufanga in free agency, and FS Malik Mustapha (knee, PUP) is also out.

And that means the 49ers are starting rookie CB Upton Stout in the slot, where for much of the game he'll be tasked with defending Smith-Njigba, whom I expect will repeatedly put the third-rounder in a blender.

Last year, he had 15-163-0 receiving on 20 targets in two games against the division rival 49ers.

A 10-target game with 100+ yards feels well within the range of outcomes.

Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers) at Falcons

In July, Emeka Egbuka was one of my favorite 2025 fantasy bench picks, but since then, he has seen his average draft position drastically shoot up (per our ADP Draft Grid).

Late July ADP: 117.4 (WR48)
Current ADP: 86.8 (WR38)

There's not much to dislike about the rookie Egbuka.

He entered Ohio State as a five-star recruit. He enjoyed a sophomore breakout in his first season as a starter (74-1,151-10 receiving, 11-87-2 rushing). And as a senior he led the National Champion Buckeyes in receptions (81) on his way to another 1,000-10 receiving campaign.

Then, he got Round 1 draft capital in April.

Now, with WRs Chris Godwin (ankle) and Jalen McMillan (neck, IR) on the sideline, Egbuka gets the chance to start right away—and in his NFL debut he faces the Falcons, who last year were No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+4.7).

Although this game has a moderate total of 46.5, I think it could shoot out. Since 2003, Week 1 divisional indoor overs are 20-11 (25.9% ROI, per Action Network).

Xavier Legette (Panthers) at Jaguars

I doubt that Xavier Legette is actually a good player, and about a week ago I highlighted him as one of the worst fantasy draft picks you can make … but he's now without WRs Adam Thielen (traded) and Jalen Coker (quad, IR), so he could see an influx of targets.

On top of that, WR Tetairoa McMillan—as great as he might be one day—is playing in his first NFL game. For at least Week 1, the gap between McMillan as the No. 1 WR and Legette as the No. 2 might be relatively small.

Plus, it's common for second-year WRs to enjoy marked year-over-year improvement. Maybe we'll see that from Legette this season.

Last year, the Jags were No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (55.8%, per FTN), and I doubt that WR/CB Travis Hunter—this year's No. 2 overall pick—will play enough on defense to make a significant difference in the secondary.

Finally, new Jags DC Anthony Campanile has never called plays before in the NFL.

The Deep Route

DJ Moore (Bears) vs. Vikings: Moore has 2,426 yards and 15 TDs from scrimmage in his two-year Bears tenure, and last season the Vikings were No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (30.8). I expect Moore to line up most against CB Jeff Okudah, who has allowed an abominable 10.0 yards per target.

Matthew Golden (Packers) vs. Lions: The Round 1 rookie could see extra target volume with WR Jayden Reed (foot) uncertain. The Lions last year were No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (28.9), and they lost DC Aaron Glenn this offseason. With HC Matt LaFleur, the Packers at home are 33-20 ATS (19.4% ROI).

Jakobi Meyers (Raiders) at Patriots: "How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!". Meyers is coming off a career-best 87-1,027-4 receiving campaign, and in the slot, he'll get to go against CB Marcus Jones, who has allowed 8.5 yards per target for his career.

Rashid Shaheed (Saints) vs. Cardinals: Last year, Shaheed was the No. 2 WR with a 50% share of air yards, and the Cardinals were No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (49.7%). Perimeter CBs Will Johnson and Max Melton have three NFL starts between them.

Josh Downs (Colts) vs. Dolphins: The Colts benefit from playing this game in the domed confines of Lucas Oil Stadium (vs. the debilitating Miami heat of Hard Rock Stadium), and Downs gets a boost with QB Daniel Jones (vs. inaccurate QB Anthony Richardson). The Dolphins could struggle with coverage given that they have four new starters in the secondary, including Day 3 rookie slot CB Jason Marshall, against whom Downs will likely run the supermajority of his routes.

Hollywood Brown (Chiefs) vs. Chargers (in Brazil): No. 1 WR Rashee Rice (suspension) is out, and Brown has the opportunity to seize target share in his absence. Last year the Chargers were No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (20.5%).

Rashod Bateman (Ravens) at Bills: The Ravens are road dogs, but last year the Bills were No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (49.3%), and for his career, QB Lamar Jackson as a road dog is 9-3 ATS (45.7% ROI). I'm not worried about the Ravens getting points outside of Baltimore.

Abbreviations

Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
Against the Spread (ATS)
Over/Under (O/U)
Team Total (TT)
Moneyline (ML)
Return on Investment (ROI)
Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
Expected Points Added (EPA)
Success Rate (SR)
Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Short Down and Distance (SDD)
Long Down and Distance (LDD)

Players Mentioned in this Article

EmekaEgbuka
WRTB
PPG
8.54
JaxonSmith-Njigba
WRSEA
PPG
11.78
Proj
15.73
MalikNabersIR
WRNYG
PPG
15.03
XavierLegette
WRCAR
PPG
3.66