Week 10 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Can Caleb Williams Shine in the Rain?
Fantasy

Week 10 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Can Caleb Williams Shine in the Rain?

Chris Allen compiles the Week 10 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet, filled with a look at the news, weather reports, rankings inspection and planning ahead.

I can’t think of a week with more buzz heading into the weekend.

Well, the setup is still the same. Injuries will likely shift the offensive structure of a couple of teams. Defensive matchups may upgrade or downgrade the projection for some of our stars. We’ve even got another international game. But for Week 10, the backdrop of the trade deadline adds some intrigue. 

We’ve got a few squads with talent additions and others with voids after Tuesday. To go with the “normal” chaos, we have to reconsider who may or may not be on the field. But don’t worry. Even as things continue to change, the team and I have all of the rankings, projections, and content you need to get your roster ready for Sunday morning.

Week 10 NFL News Update: The Latest and Greatest

It was almost too quiet on Friday afternoon. I mean, don’t get me wrong. I’ll take a day with a minimal amount of extra storylines to follow on Saturday. However, we’ve still got a few issues to monitor.

A late-week lower-body injury for a WR who relies on timing routes? Great. And he was going to face a defense allowing over 30 PPR PPG to opposing receivers? Even better. Actually, the worst part is that even if Tetairoa McMillan has to sit out on Sunday, our rankers (and I) don’t have any confidence in the remaining pass catchers.

image.png 

The jump from a consensus top-50 option to the triple digits says it all. At least Rico Dowdle doesn’t carry an injury designation after a quad contusion sidelined him for Wednesday’s practice. His availability ensures some clarity for the Panthers’ backfield. But we still don’t have much for New England’s rushing attack.

TreVeyon Henderson moved into the RB1 role in Week 9, and we fantasy managers still came away unsatisfied. His opportunities as a receiver were compelling, but Terrell Jennings got the goal-line work. Dwain and Freedman already assumed New England would roll with two RBs this week. But the projections don’t look very favorable for the former Buckeye.

image.png 

Never mind that the Bucs’ rush defense has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, and they’re coming off their bye. Henderson, operating out of a 60-40 split without short-yardage carries, drops his value even in a condensed backfield. But stop by on Sunday morning with your roster questions so Ian and I can help you sort through them. Until then, be sure to check out the latest injury updates from Adam and Jorge.

The Week 10 Weather Report

We’re back! Well, kind of. I figured the fall/winter months would bring us some inclement conditions. I’m not that worried, though.

  • Game: Giants @ Bears
    • Conditions: Wind, 20 mph (max), slightly across the stadium
  • Game: Browns @ Jets
    • Conditions: Rain, 62% chance (max), 0.02 inches per hour

BLUF: I’m still playing the primary options in both contests, but I’m lowering expectations in Chicago. Pass catchers like Rome Odunze and DJ Moore are viable, but I’d find replacements for Colston Loveland (with Cole Kmet back) and Olamide Zaccheaus.

Normally, I’d preach patience when it comes to games at or near 20 mph. Especially in this case, where the direction of the wind lessens the chance for a cross breeze.

image.png

However, each QB behaves differently when the weather becomes a factor. And what changes, whether it be play volume or efficiency, should be something we take into account. Coincidentally, we’ve seen Caleb Williams play with the winds whipping across Soldier Field before.

image.png

In that game against the Saints, Chicago’s pass rate over expectation fell to -10%. He attempted just 26 passes (fewest of the season). But, OK. You’ll look at the final score and think the game script was the reason. I’ve got two counterpoints. 

One, PROE accounts for the situation, including the score. Plus, even Williams’ passing rate while the game was still in a neutral state was at its lowest point of the season (42.4%). New York is just as susceptible to the pass as they are to a strong running game. And the Bears have both. HC Ben Johnson could make things easier by having Williams keep his passes short (averaged 8.5 air yards per attempt against the Saints), but the wind and projected game flow may shrink the receiving pie for his pass catchers.  

Exploiting the Ranks, aka I Hope I’m Wrong

I’m always looking for spots in the ranks where fantasy managers may have some questions. The first area came in the Bucs’ backfield.

image.png

Tuesday’s news out of Tampa was the opposite of what most expected to hear. Bucky Irving has yet to take on contact and has been ruled out for what will be his fifth missed game. I expect Rachaad White to shoot up the ranks due to his projected bump in touches, but his inefficiency with the ball in his hands should have anyone pause if they’re looking to start him.

  • Adj. Yards after Contact per Rush: 2.28, 21st (out of 21 RBs since Week 5 – min. 50% rush rate)
  • Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 9.3%, 20th
  • Yards per Route Run: 0.86, 14th 

Not to mention, the Patriots have yet to allow an opposing rusher over 50 yards. It’s hard to dismiss a rusher with 18 touches in their projection. However, lowering expectations and starting high-upside receivers around White can balance out your squad. But finding one might be tough.

image.png

I kept Quentin Johnston in the clip as his outlook for Week 10 should have him down in Tier 4, too. Justin Herbert’s aDOT fell to 5.5 air yards after opening the season over 9.0 per game. But he’s not the only one with warts.

Rome Odunze’s coverage matchup will siphon looks away from DJ Moore. J.J. McCarthy hasn’t cracked 160 passing yards in a start, limiting Jordan Addison’s ceiling. Even Romeo Doubs may be in a pickle as more defensive attention may be coming his way with Tucker Kraft’s absence. Dwain does have some hope for Jameson Williams, but nobody stands out once we get deeper into the ranks.

Planning Ahead

On the bright side, we’ve got only two teams heading into their mid-season break next week. However, the skill players we’ll be missing have been some of our top performers.

In retrospect, I could’ve just said we’ll need to pull any Colts or Saints players from our lineups after Monday night. But, at least for me, seeing the names and positions forces me to check what depth I have on my squads. In any case, Danny has some thoughts on how to mitigate the one-week lapse in production. As always, I’ll complement his call-outs with a few notes of my own.

  • Quarterback: J.J. McCarthy or Aaron Rodgers
    • “After a suspicious, weeks-long injury saga, J.J. McCarthy (47%) returned last week to lead the Vikings to a huge road win over the Lions. The second-year QB threw 2 TD passes and ran for another while leading a low-volume passing attack (14-for-25, 143 yards). McCarthy gets the privilege of Baltimore's third-worst defense in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.”
    • “Aaron Rodgers (38%) has a tough road matchup with the Chargers this week, but he'll be very live in Weeks 11-12 with the Bengals coming to town, followed by a roadie against the Bears. Rodgers is QB20 on the season, but lit up the Bengals for 4 touchdowns and 24.6 fantasy points in Week 7.”
    • (Chris’ Notes) I lean toward Rodgers over the Vikings’ QB1 simply because we’ve seen the Steelers go up against Cincinnati’s defense before. To Danny’s point, not only did Rodgers complete 4 TD passes, but he notched his second-highest down-to-down efficiency rate of the season against my Bengals (50.0% passing success rate). I’m always wary of in-division rematches, but facing a defense this bad shouldn’t matter. So, unless we see something different out of McCarthy (he passes more in a potential negative game script against Baltimore), Rodgers should project as the better option.
  • Running Back: Trey Benson
    • “If available, Trey Benson is worth a roster spot coming out of the Cardinals' Monday night win over the Cowboys. The former second-rounder has missed five games after a meniscus trim but could return to the practice field this week or next. Arizona has been utilizing the likes of Bam Knight and Michael Carter with little success, leaving a James Conner-esque workload on the table for Benson when he returns.”
    • (Chris’ Notes) My only issue is that Benson has yet to practice. HC Jonathan Gannon has noted Benson is progressing toward a return, but we haven’t even gotten a limited session out of him. But he has a legitimate chance to command the Cardinals’ backfield. Even against the Cowboys, Bam Knight split the totes with Emari Demercado (8 to 9) until the game was out of hand. Demercado ultimately won the war (54% of the attempts), but Knight won the battle for the money touches (50% goal-line carry rate). Assuming we get more positive news out of Arizona, Benson is a viable stash for Week 11.
    • (Chris’ Notes Part II) We should also be looking to hoard some of the contingent RBs should their starter go down. Blake Corum, Brian Robinson Jr., Bhayshul Tuten, Kenneth Gainwell, Tank Bigsby and Ray Davis come to mind.
  • Wide Receiver: Troy Franklin
    • “Troy Franklin (50%) didn't come through for fantasy managers a week after posting the overall WR1 finish, but saw another 10 targets and continued to be a factor in the red zone with a two-point conversion. Over the past three weeks, Franklin has led the team with a 24% target share with3 TD catches and 2 two-point conversions. The second-year receiver has demonstrated reliable volume (7.1 targets per game) and big-play ability with 4 scores and 3 two-point conversions this year.”
    • (Chris’ Notes) I still don’t trust the Broncos’ passing game, but Franklin’s opportunities are hard to dismiss. And it’s not just the amount; he’s drawn 37 targets in his last four games, including 9 on Thursday night against the Raiders. The type also matters. Bo Nix has looked to his former college teammate on 32% of his play-action attempts, making Franklin fantasy-viable due to his more-efficient targets.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Rome Odunze
    RomeOdunze
    WRCHICHI
    PPG
    12.83
  2. DJ Moore
    DJMoore
    WRCHICHI
    PPG
    7.45
  3. J.J. McCarthy
    J.J.McCarthyQ
    QBMINMIN
    PPG
    10.66
  4. Caleb Williams
    CalebWilliams
    QBCHICHI
    PPG
    14.98