Week 11 Bold Predictions: Jaylen Warren Does Damage
Danny Cross shares his bold predictions for Week 11, including a big game for Jaylen Warren against the Bengals.
The bold predictions were largely amiss last week, but we reserve the right to assume Dalton Kincaid was on his way to a respectable day before checking out with an injury.
We watched the tape and got better, so let's get to the Week 11 bold predictions.
Bold Predictions For Week 11 Fantasy Football
Jaylen Warren Runs (and Catches) All Over Cincinnati
Steelers running back Jaylen Warren has been a fantasy boon for managers who drafted the fourth-year man looking for RB depth and a little passing-game upside. Pittsburgh's selection of Kaleb Johnson in the third round of the NFL Draft appeared to be a passing of the early-down torch from Najee Harris to the rookie. But that was not to be, and Warren has run with the gig to the tune of 688 rushing + receiving yards and three scores (RB18).
This week, Warren gets a second shot at a Cincinnati Bengals defense that is so abysmal it deserves a congressional investigation. What the FBI would find is the fact that their first two draft picks this year—DE Shemar Stewart and LB Demetrius Knight—have the worst run-defense grades on the team, according to PFF. Stewart has only managed two solo tackles through six games, while Knight ranks among the league leaders in missed tackles with 11. Bengals safety Jordan Battle (13 missed tackles) and rookie linebacker Barrett Carter (10) have also been real bad.
Add it up, and the Bengals are PFF's worst-graded run defense and the fourth-worst tackling unit. They're allowing a league-worst 33.2 fantasy points per game to running backs, over 6 points more than the next-worst team against the position. And it's not just touchdowns hurting the cause—they've allowed a league-high +44.5 rushing yards boost to the position (next worst: +22.5) and 5.1 receptions per game (third-most). Cincinnati is particularly susceptible to backs scoring through the air, allowing 0.4 receiving TDs per game to the position, tied for the worst mark in the league.
Warren is uniquely qualified to go nuts on the Bengals. The 5-foot-8, 215-pound back does not go down easy, ranking 11th at the position with 27 missed tackles forced, and his 3.15 yards after contact per attempt ranks 20th. Warren is handling the vast majority of the Steelers' rushing work with 71% of the team's carries, and he's hanging around for enough Aaron Rodgers check-downs to secure 10% of the passing attempts. His 23 receptions rank 15th among running backs.
Backup Kenneth Gainwell has been tagging in for third-down work, but it usually doesn't take that many tries to make something happen against the Bengals.
When these teams matched up in Week 7, Warren had little trouble posting an RB7 finish without the help of a touchdown. As Rodgers tossed four passing TDs in the high-scoring affair, Warren quietly grinded out 127 yards on 16 carries (7.9 YPC), catching four of five targets for another 31 yards.
Pittsburgh let the first matchup with the Bengals slip away in part because Rodgers unnecessarily tossed a moon-ball interception with the team leading early. As the Bears showed two weeks ago when rookie RB Kyle Monangai rushed for 176 yards on 27 carries (6.8 Y/A) against Cincinnati, the safest way to put Joe Flacco, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins away is to hand the rock to a competent back and reap the consistent rewards. Warren should have no trouble doing significant damage on the 20+ touches he's likely to receive this week.
Bold prediction: Jaylen Warren racks up 150 all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
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Tre Tucker Reenacts Week 3
Back in Week 3, a man named Tre Tucker went nuclear, catching three touchdown passes and putting up 145 receiving yards on eight catches against the Washington Commanders. His 40.9 fantasy points still stand as the highest tally of the season at the position.
Since that time, the Las Vegas Raiders' third-year man has been a consistent part of the Vegas offense but has little to show for it. The speedster has seen 26 targets and four carries over six games, with a measly average of 3.5 catches for 40.7 receiving yards per game with no scores. The drought has brought his season-long average down to 11.9 PPG (WR35), which doesn't help much since he hasn't finished inside the position's top 24 since Week 6.
Still, Tucker has a shot at a bigger role and more lucrative work in the coming weeks. First, the team traded top receiver Jakobi Meyers last week, leaving Tucker as the No. 1 option on the outside. Second, tight end Brock Bowers returned with a bang two weeks ago, helping Geno Smith produce his second-highest passing total of the season.
The Raiders are struggling badly to run the ball, coming in with PFF's third-worst rushing grade and seventh-worst run-blocking grade. Even with talented first-rounder Ashton Jeanty handling the carries, the team's 87.4 rushing yards per game ranks fourth-worst in the league. They've only cracked 100 yards on the ground in three of nine games.
The Dallas Cowboys have been the cure for what is ailing passing offenses all season, and they have been particularly generous to wide receivers. Dallas has allowed an astronomical 1.8 passing TDs to WRs per game—no other team is above 1.3. They've allowed the highest fantasy point boost (+8.2) to the position and the second-most fantasy points.
The Raiders' defense has let things get out of hand three times this year, giving up 31 points to the Chiefs, 40 to the Colts, and 41 to the Commanders. The Cowboys' offense is more than capable of putting the Raiders' offense into comeback mode early, meaning plenty of opportunities for Tucker to take advantage.
Bold prediction: Tre Tucker scores twice en route to a top-six fantasy finish.
Christian Watson Emerges from the Packers' Clown Car of Receivers
Christian Watson's return couldn't have come at a better time for the Green Bay Packers. Before making his season debut after recovering from an ACL tear, fellow WR Jayden Reed had already hit the injured list with surgeries on his foot and shoulder. In Week 9, the team lost star tight end Tucker Kraft for the season, and rookie receiver Matthew Golden hurt his shoulder. Last week, the Packers' leading receiver Romeo Doubs checked out early with a chest injury.
Along the way, Watson has settled into a familiar role, drawing four looks in every game and catching eight total passes for 188 yards. The veteran has been shockingly efficient: His 25.9 average depth of target leads the league, yet his 2.11 yards per route run ranks 21st at the position. The volume hasn't spiked, as the Packers have been slowly easing him back with a 65% route rate in Week 8 followed by 75% and then 83%. It's safe to assume Watson will get as much run as he can handle in Week 11 considering his three-week ramp-up and the state of the Green Bay receiving room.
A trip to New York might just provide a high point for Watson in 2025. The Giants have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and a +3.2 point boost to the position. Through 10 games, New York has allowed five top-10 fantasy receivers, six top-24 WRs, and another four WRs in the top 36. The Giants' defense has allowed 32.2 points per game over their last four, all losses.
Green Bay will be inclined to run the ball against a defense allowing the second-most rushing yards per game. But after sputtering over the past two weeks to the tune of 20 total points and two losses, Matt LaFleur & Co. should take this opportunity to get the passing offense back on track, too. Watson has proven capable of putting up fantasy points even on small workloads when the deep shots hit. This week, he has little competition for looks and a solid shot at finding the end zone for the first time this season.
Bold prediction: Christian Watson scores a long TD and posts a top-10 fantasy finish.
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