Week 12 Bold Predictions: Jared Goff Lights Up the Giants

A potential clean sweep of bold predictions last week was derailed when Jaylen Warren left with an injury and Tre Tucker couldn't quite bring down a second touchdown catch. At least Christian Watson got the job done with a pair of TDs.

Let's see if the injury gods will ease up and let us pass or fail on our own accord this week. Here are the Week 12 bold predictions.

Jared Goff Lights Up the Giants

Lions QB Jared Goff hasn't quite lived up to the QB8 season he delivered last year when he posted 37 passing touchdowns and finished fifth in the MVP voting. Currently the QB16 in points per game, Goff has only finished inside the position's top 12 twice in 10 games. One of those happened to be the overall QB1 performance back in Week 2 when Goff threw five touchdown passes against the Bears.

Still, fantasy managers were hoping for more out of Dan Campbell & Co. after the team led the league in scoring last year with 33.2 points per game.

The thing is, the Lions are still scoring plenty of points, sitting fifth in the league to date with 29.2 PPG, and Goff isn't that far off the pace of last year's 4,629 passing yards. The veteran's current 249 yards per game (ninth in the league) and 21 passing TDs (second) come out to 4,233 and 36 over the full season. This would be the first time in three years that Goff finished below 4,500 yards passing, but he's been as efficient as ever, boasting a 110.8 QB rating that is right in line with the 111.8 he delivered last season, and ranking fifth in completion percentage and sixth in passing EPA.

The good news for fantasy managers is that the Lions have absolutely smashed weak defenses this year while playing more small-ball in close games. All three of Goff's performances this year with more than two passing TDs came against bottom-seven defenses in fantasy points allowed to QBs (Bears, Bengals, Commanders).

And that's where the New York Giants come in.

New York has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and the sixth-highest fantasy boost (+3.1 points). Their 1.7 touchdowns per game allowed ranks 10th on the season, and they've been even worse of late: Since Week 6, every QB room they've faced has scored two or more touchdowns. Even Malik Willis got in on the action with a garbage time score last week.

This looks like a get-right spot for a passing offense coming off a tough outing against the Eagles on Sunday night. Look for Campbell to squint at his playsheet long enough to find a few explosive plays through the air and reestablish the Lions' offense as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Bold prediction: Jared Goff throws four TD passes, finishes as QB1.

Woody Marks Turns Back the Clock to Week 4

Woody Marks has been a bit of an enigma this season, breaking out for 27.9 fantasy points (RB6) in Week 4 only to frustrate fantasy managers with middling usage (and performance) over the next month. Houston had a bye in Week 6 and then proceeded to give the rookie either 10 or 11 carries and 3-5 targets in each of the next three weeks, resulting in RB16, RB15, and RB47 finishes.

Something cool has occurred over the last two weeks, however. Marks appears to have put Nick Chubb in the rear-view mirror, handling 78% of the rushing attempts and 67% of the short-down-and-distance snaps. The box scores tell the tale: 32 carries and four targets for Marks, eight carries and three targets for Chubb. Marks's workload over those two weeks was good for the 14th-best expected fantasy points per game (16.1) at the position.

The best part for Marks managers? The Texans won both of those games, signaling a much stronger role for a rookie who looked destined for a pass-catching role behind an (aging) veteran for most of the year.

Marks was an excellent pass-catcher in college whose 1.22 yards per route run ranks 17th among running backs this season. The Texans' passing-down role was never going to belong to Chubb or Dare Ogunbowale for long after Houston traded a 2026 third-round pick in order to select Marks in the fourth round last year. But if Marks continues to out-carry Chubb at anywhere near the 32-8 rate he has over the last two weeks, fantasy spikes are going to happen sooner rather than later.

Houston hosts the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night, offering an ideal scenario for Marks to formalize his stranglehold on the Texans' RB1 role. The Bills have allowed 27.1 PPR points per game to running backs this year, second-worst to only the horrendous Bengals. And the 1.4 rushing TDs Buffalo has allowed per game is a massive outlier—only three other teams have allowed a full 1.0 per game on average.

Look for Marks to follow in the footsteps of Buccaneers running back Sean Tucker, who scored three times against the unit last week—twice on the ground and once through the air.

Bold prediction: Woody Marks goes for 120 yards and two scores.

Hunter Henry Goes Off

Stop us if you've heard this before: The Bengals' defense is real bad. For fantasy purposes, it's the worst unit against both running backs (+10.4 point fantasy boost) and tight ends (+7.9). And QBs tend to have a fine time as well (+5.5).

Shockingly, the gig has been less lucrative to opposing wide receivers, in part because it's so easy to run the ball against Cincinnati, and the unit actually boasts one (1) solid cornerback in DJ Turner. The Bengals start two rookie linebackers who happen to rank last and third-last in PFF defense grade. Things are not good in the land of chili and spaghetti.

All of this is to say, secondary pass-catchers have earned their highlight reel moments against Cincinnati, and Hunter Henry is the latest to receive his invite to the party. On the year, Henry is running routes on 75% of Patriots pass plays, and his 16% target share ranks second on the team to only Stefon Diggs (24%).

The Patriots are 7-point favorites on the road in a matchup with a 50.5-point betting total, tied for the highest on the slate. There will be opportunities a la Week 3 when Henry caught eight passes on 11 targets for 90 yards and two scores. Last week against the Steelers, only Darnell Washington caught passes among the Pittsburgh tight ends, but three weeks ago, the Pittsburgh TE room scored four times against the Bengals.

Here are the tight end performances against Cincinnati from Weeks 5-9:

Sam LaPorta: 5-92-1
Brock Wright: 2-9-1
Tucker Kraft: 2-43-1
Darnell Washington: 3-2-1
Jonnu Smith: 3-28-1
Pat Freiermuth: 5-111-2
Mason Taylor: 5-34-1
Colston Loveland: 6 catches-118 yards- 2 TDs

Ten touchdowns allowed to tight ends in five games. Kinda makes a fella wonder about an Austin Hooper anytime TD as well…

Bold prediction: Hunter Henry scores twice en route to a top-three fantasy finish.

Week 12 Bold Predictions: Jared Goff Lights Up the Giants

Jared Goff Lights Up the Giants

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Woody Marks Turns Back the Clock to Week 4

Hunter Henry Goes Off

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