Week 12 QB Rankings: Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts and More Quarterback Upgrades

It's Week 12.

If you're not listening to 1970s quadraphonic electronic soundscapes while researching dropback rates and team matchups, you're not grinding hard enough.

Let's get into the Week 12 QB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

• Favorable betting factors and situational spots
• Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
• Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, my Week 12 fantasy football rankings, and my weekly projections, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 12 fantasy football plays.

• Week 12 RB Rankings
• Week 12 WR Rankings
• Week 12 TE Rankings

To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

QB Rankings For Week 12 Fantasy Football

Week 12 Matchup Upgrades: Drake Maye vs. Bengals & Jalen Hurts vs. Cowboys

Some defenses are so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever QBs they face.

Essentially, they're "flow chart" defenses. If a QB is facing one of them, I aggressively move him up my rankings. If not, I carry on with my life.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Cowboys and Bengals are the league's biggest flow chart defenses for QBs.

• Bengals: No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.274) and defensive pass DVOA (46.6%)
• Cowboys: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+5.6)

Let's ride.

Drake Maye (Patriots) at Bengals: The Pats have three extra days of rest off Thursday Night Football, and Maye is the No. 1 QB in completion rate (71.9%), AY/A (9.4), and composite EPA + CPOE (0.206). Maye is No. 2 in MVP odds (+190, Caesars), and the Bengals could be without EDGE Trey Hendrickson (hip) and CB Cam Taylor-Britt (foot).

Jalen Hurts (Eagles) at Cowboys: The Eagles are an NFC-best 8-2, Hurts has a career-high 8.4 AY/A, and he had 24.3 fantasy points against the Cowboys in Week 1. Even in the midst of a down rushing year (7.3 carries per game vs. 9.9 in 2021-24), he's still the No. 1 QB among current starters in designed rush share (18%) and goalline rush share (56%, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

Week 12 Scoring Upgrade: Jared Goff vs. Giants

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so we need to bump up the QB."

As 10.5-point home favorites in a game with a 49.5-point over/under, this week the Lions are No. 1 in implied team total (30 points).

Upgrade warranted.

Jared Goff (Lions) vs. Giants: Goff was terrible last week (37.8% completion rate, 6.2 AY/A), but it was his second straight road game, and he was outdoors in cold weather. This week he's back indoors, where Goff is 47-23-1 ATS (28.3% ROI, per Action Network). On top of that, the Lions have had the league's best home-field advantage over the past five years (+8.13, per NFElo). The Giants could be without four defensive starters in EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (shoulder), DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (toe), CB Paulson Adebo (knee) and SS Tyler Nubin (neck).

Backup QBs Who Might Start in Week 12

A number of backup QBs might draw starts this week due to injuries to the starters. Here are the backups who catch my eye.

Davis Mills (Texans) vs. Bills: No. 1 QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) has been ruled out for Thursday Night Football, so Mills will draw his third straight start. The Texans are at home for their third game in four weeks, and Mills has been functional in his two recent games (566 yards and three TDs passing, 5-34-1 rushing).

Mason Rudolph (Steelers) at Bears: No. 1 QB Aaron Rodgers (wrist) might miss this week. I'm not thrilled about the prospect of starting Rudolph. (I would never consider him in Guillotine Leagues™, for instance.) But he could be streamably serviceable against the Bears, who are dealing with injuries to LB T.J. Edwards (hand) and CB Tyrique Stevenson (hip).

The Dropback

The best of the rest.

Jacoby Brissett (Cardinals) vs. Jaguars: Brissett has passed for 250+ yards and two TDs in each of his five starts this year, and his 20-78-1 rushing in those games is nothing to sniff at. Since Week 6, Brissett has three games of 20+ fantasy points, and at this point, he looks like a low-end QB1. The Jags could be without three defensive starters in EDGE Travon Walker (knee) and CBs Greg Newsome (ankle) and Jourdan Lewis (neck). Although they're 2.5-point underdogs, I have the Cardinals rated as a four-star bet in our Fantasy Life Game Model.

Bryce Young (Panthers) at 49ers: Young just passed for 448 yards and three TDs … and now he's facing a 49ers defense that allowed Jacoby Brissett to throw 452 yards and two TDs last week. The 49ers are beyond beat up without EDGEs Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Mykel Williams (knee, IR), Yetur Gross-Matos (knee, IR) and LB Fred Warner (ankle, IR)—and EDGE Robert Beal (concussion) and LB Tatum Bethune (ankle) might also be out.

Tyler Shough (Saints) vs. Falcons: Shough looked good in Week 10 (282 yards and two TDs passing, 11.9 AY/A), and he might be just as sharp out of the Week 11 bye. The Falcons could be down three defensive starters in EDGE Leonard Floyd (hamstring), DT Zach Harrison (knee) and CB Mike Hughes (neck). I hate saying this, but Shough might be a viable desperado Week 12 streamer.

Notes For My Week 12 QB Rankings

Byes: This week, the Chargers, Broncos, Dolphins, and Commanders are on bye.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings and projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
• Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
• Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
• Sun AM: Revise rankings
• Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 12 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long Down and Distance (LDD)

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