Week 12 RB Rankings: TreVeyon Henderson, Derrick Henry and More Running Back Elevations
Matthew Freedman presented his running back rankings for Week 12, featuring his favorite plays like TreVeyon Henderson, Derrick Henry and more.
It's Week 12.
If you're anything like me, this is officially the point in the year when you start thinking about making holiday plans and buying presents for people you barely know and hardly like—oops, I mean, "family."
You know, all that annoying stuff that gets in the way of thinking about fantasy football.
Stay strong, my friend.
Focus on the prize.
Let's get into the Week 12 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series, my Week 12 fantasy rankings, and my weekly projections, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 12 fantasy football plays.
To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Week 12 Running Back Rankings for Fantasy Football
Week 12 Matchup Upgrades: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Giants & TreVeyon Henderson vs. Bengals
Some defenses are so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever RBs they face.
Essentially, they're "flow chart" defenses. If an RB is facing one of them, I aggressively move him up my rankings. If not, I carry on with my life.
Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Giants and Bengals are the league's biggest flow chart defenses for RBs.
- Giants: No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.148) and defensive rush DVOA (16.6%)
- Bengals: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+10.4)
Let's ride.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs. Giants: Gibbs hasn't been quite as explosive this year (5.2 yards per carry, 7.8 yards per target vs. 5.6, 8.2 last year), but he still has a dominant 1,066 yards and 10 TDs in 10 games. On the defensive front, the Giants could be without EDGEs Kayvon Thibodeaux (shoulder) and Chauncey Golston (neck) and DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (toe).
TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots) at Bengals: Henderson has three extra days of rest off Thursday Night Football, and last week he had 93 yards and 3 TDs on a position-high 93% snap rate. If RB Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) misses another game, Henderson should continue to dominate, and EDGE Trey Hendrickson (hip) seems unlikely to suit up for the Bengals.
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Week 12 Scoring Upgrade: Derrick Henry vs. Jets & David Montgomery vs. Giants
Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so we need to bump up the RB."
As double-digit home favorites, the Lions are No. 1 in implied team total (30 points) followed closely by the Ravens at No. 2 (29)
Upgrade warranted.
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs. Jets: Henry won't finish this year with numbers anywhere close to last year's (2,114 total yards, 18 TDs), but in four games since the Week 7 bye he has 398 yards and 3 TDs on 78 carries and 7 targets. The Jets defense is vulnerable without recently traded DT Quinnen Williams.
David Montgomery (Lions) vs. Giants: There's room in this offense for both Jahmyr Gibbs and Montgomery to go off. In six wins this year, Montgomery has 418 yards and 4 TDs from scrimmage plus a three-yard TD pass and a two-point conversion. The Lions have had the league's best home-field advantage over the past five years (+8.13, per NFElo).
Home Favorite RBs in Week 12
In general, I want to be heavy on RBs at home and getting points. Among those guys, here are those who stand out to me.
Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs. Panthers: He hasn't had great efficiency this year (3.7 yards per carry, 7.6 yards per target), but McCaffrey is the No. 1 RB in Utilization Score (98, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). With that usage, he has a league-high 1,439 scrimmage yards as well as 11 TDs. McCaffrey should benefit from an extra day of rest entering Monday Night Football, and the Panthers might be without LB Trevin Wallace (shoulder).
D'Andre Swift (Bears) vs. Steelers: Despite sharing work with No. 2 RB Kyle Monangai, the veteran Swift still has 572 yards and 3 TDs on 78 carries and 15 targets in five games since the Week 5 bye. The Steelers are No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (0.007).
Kareem Hunt (Chiefs) vs. Colts: No. 1 RB Isiah Pacheco (knee) has missed the past two games, and in those contests Hunt has a 70 Utilization Score on a 77% rush share and 59% route rate. The Colts should be fresh off the bye, but the status of EDGEs Tyquan Lewis (groin) and Samson Ebukam (knee) is still uncertain.
Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs. Falcons: Kamara had maybe his best game of the season in Week 10 (115 scrimmage yards), and he should be rested off the Week 11 bye. The Falcons are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (45.3%) and might be without EDGE Leonard Floyd (hamstring) and DT Zach Harrison (knee) on the DL.
Backup RBs Who Might Start in Week 12
A number of backup RBs might draw starts this week due to injuries to the starters. Here are some who catch my eye.
Emanuel Wilson (Packers) vs. Vikings: No. 1 RB Josh Jacobs (knee) exited last week early, and Wilson is locked in as the backup behind him. The Packers are 6.5-point favorites at home, where HC Matt LaFleur is 35-23 ATS (15.7% ROI, per Action Network).
Sean Tucker (Buccaneers) at Rams: The dude was the No. 1 RB in fantasy last week (33 points, 140 yards and 3 TDs from scrimmage). If No. 1 RB Bucky Irving (foot) is out yet again, Tucker should play ahead of Rachaad White.
Kenneth Gainwell (Steelers) at Bears: No. 1 RB Jaylen Warren (ankle) exited last week after 18 snaps, and in his stead Gainwell dominated as the lead back (105 yards, 2 TDs) … just as he did in Week 4 (134 yards, 2 TDs), when Warren was a surprise injury inactive. Gainwell should be added on waivers, and if Warren misses Week 12, Gainwell will be a strong option, even in Guillotine Leagues.
The Checkdown
The best of the rest.
Chase Brown (Bengals) vs. Patriots: No. 2 RB Samaje Perine (ankle) missed almost all of Week 9 and failed to play last week out of the bye. Without him, Brown has put up 239 yards on 29 carries, 22 targets and a 95 Utilization Score. The Pats could be without DTs Milton Williams (ankle, IR) and Joshua Farmer (ankle) and LB Christian Elliss (hip). Even though they're 8.5-point underdogs, I have the Bengals as a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life Game Model.
Woody Marks (Texans) vs. Bills: Marks is now the No. 1 RB in Houston. Since the Week 6 bye, in five games he has 63 carries and 16 targets, which he has leveraged into a respectable 305 yards and 2 TDs. The Bills are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (25.6).
Notes For My Week 12 RB Rankings
Byes: This week, the Chargers, Broncos, Dolphins and Commanders are on bye.
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings and projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 12 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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