Week 14 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Lamar Jackson Update and Weather Impacts
Fantasy

Week 14 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Lamar Jackson Update and Weather Impacts

Chris Allen reviews all the pertinent news and information impacting fantasy football, like injury updates, advantageous matchups, weather and more.

Friday’s news dump came with plenty of information that will have fantasy managers scrambling for roster adjustments (more on that in a bit), but we did get a couple of positive updates ahead of Sunday for the Week 14 Cheat Sheet.

Week 14 Top Fantasy Football Storylines

Lamar Jackson’s Week 14 practice designations of LP and DNP had the real and fantasy football media speculating not just on the health of the Ravens’ QB1, but Baltimore’s playoff chances amid the team’s struggles. Luckily, a mishap during Wednesday’s drills led to Jackson’s absence, but he’s on track to suit up on Sunday. Though his availability only erases so much uncertainty.

It’s no stretch to say that this is the worst span of Jackson’s career. His passing success rates over his last four games (43.3%, 40.0%, 41.7% and 40.0%) rank inside the Bottom 30 of his 96 starts since 2019. But you don’t need nerd stats to see something is off about the two-time MVP winner. You can see it while watching him live. His 29.3 rushing yards per game are a career-low mark. But maybe with his back against the wall, and against a defense that just gave up the sixth-most rushing yards of any team all season, Jackson and the Ravens can get their sights set back on the playoffs. Unfortunately, Washington can’t say the same.

Honestly, Jayden Daniels’ return is only a positive for the folks rostering him. Marcus Mariota literally just took one of (if not the) best defenses in the NFL down to a final play in overtime last week in primetime. The Commanders have averaged 35.8 yards per drive with Mariota and 32.8 with Daniels as the starter. It’s not a knock against the second-year QB, but the risk of yet another setback should be on everyone’s mind.

I mean, it’s not like the Vikings rank first in blitz and pressure rate on the season. Also, there’s no way DC Brian Flores has sent five or more pass rushers on more than 50% of the dropbacks of any QB he’s faced with a hint of mobility, like, I don’t know, say, Jalen Hurts (57.7%), Lamar Jackson (60.6%) and Caleb Williams (66.7%). But no, I’m sure HC Dan Quinn and OC Kliff Kingsbury know what they’re doing.

Anyway, hey, not like the subject was on my mind, but have you looked at our updated injury report? Coincidentally, Daniels is part of Adam and Jorge’s discussion (for this week! We can’t predict future ailments!), but there may be some other guys you want to check in on ahead of Sunday.

Who’s Got the Best Matchups?

We’ve got four teams on bye, and the weight of the playoffs is adding a bit more pressure. So, I’d understand if fantasy managers would want other options or confirmation that they’re making the right roster decision. Luckily, the crew had some thoughts on players in positive matchups at each position.

Quarterback

From Dwain:

Jayden Daniels (Commanders) at Vikings: Daniels has been named the starter after missing three games with an elbow injury. While injuries have derailed his fantasy season, the second-year QB has still averaged a respectable 19.6 points in four full games. The Vikings have been the third-hardest matchup for QBs with a -4.2 fantasy boost per our DvP tool. When you pair that with unknowns about involvement in the rushing attack coming back from injury, it's challenging to push Daniels too high in the ranks. Still, even with deductions for the matchup and injury, he carries the No. 3 Xfinity Best ceiling at 24.4 points. Daniels is a boom-bust borderline QB1.

Running Back

From Freedman:

Blake Corum (Rams) at Cardinals: This is more or less a reminder that Corum is one of the best handcuffs in fantasy. If No. 1 RB Kyren Williams were to suffer an injury, Corum—even in Guillotine Leagues—would be an immediate high-end fantasy starter. He should be added on waivers where available. Since the Week 8 bye, Corum actually has more of the team's goal-line carries than Williams (56% vs. 44%).

Wide Receiver

From Yours Truly:

Christian Watson (Packers) vs. Bears: On the season, Jordan Love’s 8.5 air yards per attempt rank 12th amongst all starters. Those deep shots are fun when they hit, but tough to predict. So, it’s no surprise to see Watson sitting at 29th out of 54 WRs in catchable target rate over the last month. However, how he wins pokes at a specific weakness of Chicago’s.

  • Receiving Yards Allowed (to WRs since Week 6): 157.0, 7th most
  • Explosive Pass Rate Allowed: 20.3%, 8th most
  • PPR PPG Allowed: 44.5, 7th most

A.J. Brown, on top of dropping a 12-132-2 statline on the Bears, got behind the secondary for a 33-yard score. DeVonta Smith took a corner route for 30 yards on his own explosive touch. It’s a recurring problem for HC Ben Johnson’s defense. In fact, the only team not to record a reception on a throw of at least 15 air yards in the last two months is Pittsburgh. So, between Watson’s opportunity share and Chicago’s lapses in coverage, Watson should be a staple of fantasy rosters in Week 14.

If You Need Help …

For some of us, we need more than just our stars performing well. A random outlier result from a bench player or waiver-wire add will be the key to our success. Admittedly, those aren’t the best bets to make, but phrases like “better to be lucky than good” and “a win is a win” come to mind when talking about a playoff run. Nobody cares about how you got there. The result is all that matters. And if you’re looking for some help from the list of likely free agents, we’ve got a couple to consider.

Adonai Mitchell, Jets

Jonathan advocated for the new Jets WR in his late-week streamers piece. My knee-jerk reaction to the recommendation was that we’re chasing points. But this is why we look at opportunity and not just results:

Everything is breaking right for the ex-Colt with minimal target competition and a somewhat more competent passing game now that Tyrod Taylor is leading the offense. Mitchell's role in the offense has grown each week, and he most recently posted an elite 97 UR Score in Week 13.

“In Fantasy Life's Week 14 projection, Mitchell sits at WR26, putting him right on the WR2/WR3 borderline and a solid starting option if you need to stream a WR to help get you into the playoffs this week.

In my own portfolio of teams, Mitchell was my most-added player this week, and I will be starting him in several spots. Garrett Wilson is eligible to return from IR next week, but there is a chance his absence could be longer, and the Jets could choose to shut him down for the year with their season effectively over. For as long as Wilson is out, Mitchell should project as a startable fantasy asset. The Jets also have a decent schedule with the Dolphins, Jaguars, Saints and Patriots still on the docket. None of those pass defenses are particularly strong.”

Blake Corum, Rams

At this point in the season, I’ll take anything at RB. Sorry, Bijan Robinson managers, I need some points from Tyler Allgeier. Oh, you wanted Travis Etienne to score? So sorry, but I’ve got Bhayshul Tuten on my roster, and I’m looking for a win. Backups can be more than just guys you stash on your bench until a starting opportunity comes along. And, as Gene pointed out in his Rest-of-Season rankings article, the Rams’ RB2 could be your starting RB2:

“People have been waiting for Blake Corum to break out and possibly even take over in this backfield, but clearly a takeover is not coming. What we have seen, though, is a legitimate role emerge for him. Over the past five weeks, he has received 13 carries twice, eight carries and seven carries twice. That includes a week 13 top-20 performance. Corum has the ability to wrestle targets away from Kyren Williams in this offense, and he has proven that he can be effective. It is surprising that he is rostered in only 16% of leagues across platforms. If you are a fantasy manager who needs to take a big swing, he may be the answer.”

The Week 14 Weather Report

The winter weather is here! Well, kind of. The forecast shows a couple of games with some snowfall coming for the Midwest, but, of course, Florida had to one-up everyone with some rain.

  • Game: Colts @ Jaguars
    • Conditions: Rain, 78% chance (max), 0.12 inches per hour
  • Game: Saints @ Buccaneers
    • Conditions: Rain, 60% chance (max), 0.02 inches per hour
  • Game: Titans @ Browns
    • Conditions: Snow, 55% chance (max), 0.1 inches per hour
  • Game: Bengals @ Bills
    • Conditions: Snow, 55% chance (max), 0.2 inches per hour

BLUF: Fantasy managers should be watching the forecast for the IND-JAX game. If the rain persists at the forecasted rates, it will affect play volume and passing efficiency. I’d consider options with stable volume like Brenton Strange and Tyler Warren only. As of right now, I’m not making any changes to my lineups for the snow games.

First off, to add context, it’s not like the weather models are indicating rainfall will start right before kickoff. In other words, there’s less of a chance that things will completely clear up. Per the forecast, precipitation will start the morning of the game.

The key thing to notice here is the “Amount” column. Essentially, this helps measure how much rain and a larger number means more. Now, compare those numbers to what might happen after kickoff.

It’s been a while, but Week 7 between Washington and San Francisco during the 2019 season comes to mind. The game featured a total of 33 passing attempts and three field goals. Jimmy Garoppolo went to the intermediate parts of the field with George Kittle (10.6 air yards per target) and Kendrick Bourne (13.3), benefiting from the aggression. Meanwhile, Case Keenum looked to Terry McLaurin no farther than two air yards down the field. As I’ve often said, the elements affect each QB differently, so we don’t need to avoid every option. But someone like Brian Thomas Jr., who requires more precision-based routes, becomes a receiver I’d like to replace.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Lamar Jackson
    LamarJackson
    QBBALBAL
    PPG
    13.63
  2. Jayden Daniels
    JaydenDanielsQ
    QBWASWAS
    PPG
    11.72
  3. Blake Corum
    BlakeCorum
    RBLARLAR
    PPG
    5.43
    Proj
    5.49
  4. Christian Watson
    ChristianWatson
    WRGBGB
    PPG
    7.76