Week 14 QB Rankings: Upgrade Jacoby Brissett, Jared Goff and More

It's Week 14.

For most leagues, this is the end of the fantasy regular season.

But in the words of Gandalf: "The journey doesn't end here."

Whether you're bound for the playoffs or destined for the consolation bracket: "White shores, and beyond, a far green country under a swift sunrise." 

Let's get into the Week 14 QB Rankings edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

• Favorable betting factors and situational spots
• Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
• Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
   

For process notes regarding this series and my Week 14 fantasy rankings, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 14 fantasy football plays.

• Week 14 RB Rankings
• Week 14 WR Rankings
• Week 14 TE Rankings
   

To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

Week 14 Quarterback Rankings

Week 14 QB Rankings Matchup Upgrades: Jared Goff vs. Cowboys & Tyrod Taylor vs. Dolphins

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Cowboys and Dolphins are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for QBs.

• Cowboys: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+6.4)
• Dolphins: No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (52.7%)
   

Bang a gong.

Jared Goff (Lions) vs. Cowboys: Over the past two weeks, the Cowboys have impressively secured respective 24-21 and 31-28 wins over the Eagles and Chiefs … and yet in victory, the Cowboys still allowed top-two fantasy performances to QBs Jalen Hurts (30.0 fantasy points) and Patrick Mahomes (29.4). Although WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) and Kalif Raymond (ankle) might be out, Goff with the Lions at home is 27-15-1 ATS (22.5%, per Action Network), and the Lions have had the league's best home-field advantage over the past five years (+7.58, per NFElo).

Tyrod Taylor (Jets) vs. Dolphins: Long gone are the halcyon days of 2015, when Taylor secured a surprise Pro Bowl bid as a first-year starter—but the guy can still play football. Last week he put up 21.3 fantasy points against a respectable Falcons defense, and in his three starts he has a floor-protecting 21-111-1 rushing with an elite 13% scramble rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). The Jets are home for their second straight game, and although the Jets are 2.5-point underdogs, Taylor for his career when getting points is 25-12-3 ATS (27.8% ROI). He's the Week 14 waiver wire streamer.

Scoring Upgrades for Week 14 QB Rankings: Matthew Stafford vs. Cardinals & Jordan Love vs. Bears

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the QB."

This week, the Rams are No. 2 in implied team total (28.5 points) while the Packers are No. 5 (25.5).

Upgrade warranted.

Matthew Stafford (Rams) at Cardinals: Although he disappointed last week (two INTs in a 31-28 loss), Stafford still has an obscene 3,073 yards and 32 TDs passing (to four INTs) in 12 games. The Cards are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (51.3%) and could be without CB Max Melton (heel).

Jordan Love (Packers) vs. Bears: Love hasn't had the most consistent of campaigns, but his 8.4 AY/A is a near-elite mark, and just last week he put up 23.8 fantasy points on 234 yards and four TDs passing. With HC Matt LaFleur, the Packers at home are 36-23 ATS (17.1% ROI), and the Bears might be missing three starters—CB Tyrique Stevenson (hip) and LBs Tremaine Edmunds (groin, IR) and T.J. Edwards (hand)—in the back seven. It's Toyotathon time. While the game total is 44.5 points, I have the over projected as a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life Game Model.

Week 14 QB Rankings Defensive Injury Upgrades: Dak Prescott vs. Lions & Tua Tagovailoa vs. Jets

Here are a couple of QBs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) at Lions: In three games since the Week 10 bye, Prescott has been sensational with 942 yards and eight TDs passing (to two INTs) and a rushing TD. The Lions are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.2) and could be without two secondary starters in CB Terrion Arnold (shoulder, IR) and FS Kerby Joseph (knee).

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) at Jets: I normally don't like to use Tagovailoa on the road, but the Jets are No. 32 in defensive dropback DVOA (37.3%), they traded away CBs Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter about a month ago, and CB Jarvis Brownlee (hip) and FS Tony Adams (groin) might be out.

Indoors Upgrades for Week 14 QB Rankings: Jacoby Brissett vs. Rams & J.J. McCarthy vs. Commanders 

In general, I want to be heavy on QBs playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature, or precipitation. Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Jacoby Brissett (Cardinals) vs. Rams: The matchup is tough, but Brissett has passed for 2,188 yards and 13 TDs (with four INTs) and added 26-114-1 rushing in his seven starts. His indoor/outdoor splits this year aren't massive (7.7 AY/A vs. 7.1), but they do exist.

J.J. McCarthy (Vikings) vs. Commanders: I wouldn't dream of starting McCarthy in Guillotine Leagues™, but I'll say this about him … he's not Max Brosmer, who had a -0.32 AY/A last week. I expect McCarthy (concussion) to return to action against the Commanders, who are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.258) and without CBs Marshon Lattimore (knee, IR) and Trey Amos (leg, IR). McCarthy has been more productive in the dome than outdoors (174.8 yards passing per game vs. 115.0).

Notes Regarding My Week 14 QB Rankings

Byes: This week, all Patriots, 49ers, Panthers, and Giants are on bye.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish rankings
• Thu AM: Refresh rankings
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
• Sat PM: Update rankings
• Sun AM: Revise rankings
• Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
   

Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long Down and Distance (LDD)

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