Week 14 TE Rankings: Will Dalton Kincaid be Able to Take Advantage of a Great Matchup?

It's Week 14.

In the words of Peter Steele: "Everything dies."

Let's get into the Week 14 TE edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series and my Week 14 fantasy rankings, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 14 fantasy football plays.

To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

Week 14 Tight End Rankings for Fantasy Football

Rank	Tight End	Team	Opponent
1	Trey McBride	ARI	LAR
2	Brock Bowers	LV	DEN
3	Tyler Warren	IND	JAX
4	Travis Kelce	KC	HOU
5	Brenton Strange	JAX	IND
6	Kyle Pitts	ATL	SEA
7	Jake Ferguson	DAL	DET
8	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	CIN
9	Mark Andrews	BAL	PIT
10	Oronde Gadsden	LAC	PHI
11	Juwan Johnson	NO	TB
12	Zach Ertz	WAS	MIN

Week 14 Matchup Upgrades: Dalton Kincaid vs. Bengals & Dallas Goedert vs. Chargers

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Bengals and Chargers are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for TEs.

Bengals: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+8.6)
Chargers: No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (22.8%)

Bang a gong.

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) vs. Bengals: Kincaid (hamstring) last played in Week 10, but he practiced on a limited basis every day last week before being a questionable gameday inactive, so I'm optimistic he'll return to action this week. Kincaid has been efficiently elite this year (12.4 yards per target, 11.1% TD rate), and of all the team's pass catchers, he's No. 1 on the season with a 66 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). The Bills are No. 1 in implied team total (28.75 points).

Dallas Goedert (Eagles) at Chargers: I'm not wild about Goedert. I definitely wouldn't start him in Guillotine Leagues, because he has done little in four games since the team's Week 9 bye (10-114-0 receiving, 17 targets), but he still has an 89% route rate over that span, he has 9.0 yards per target in QB Jalen Hurts' five years as a starter and his matchup is advantageous. This is a decent spot for a bounceback.

Week 14 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Brenton Strange vs. Colts & Kyle Pitts vs. Seahawks

Here are a couple TEs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.

Brenton Strange (Jaguars) vs. Colts: Strange has had back-to-back top-5 fantasy finishes on 8-138-1 receiving and 9 targets since returning from injury in Week 12, and he could see more usage this week if WR Parker Washington (hip) is out. The Colts are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (13.1). Strange looks like a mid-range TE1.

Kyle Pitts (Falcons) vs. Seahawks: No. 1 WR Drake London (knee) has missed the past two weeks, and in his absence Pitts has had 9-107-0 receiving on 13 targets with a 91% route rate and 25% target share. The Seahawks are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (15.3%).

Week 14 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Darren Waller vs. Jets & Zach Ertz vs. Vikings

Here are a couple TEs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Darren Waller (Dolphins) at Jets: Waller had just 3 targets in his Week 13 return to action, but he still put up 47 yards, and in his five games he's the No. 5 TE in air yard share (20%) and No. 2 TE in end zone target share (50%). With a soft upcoming schedule, Waller might be a skeleton key for the fantasy playoffs, and his matchup this week is also kind: The Jets are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (22.1%), and FS Tony Adams (groin) is questionable. Waller should be added via waivers where available.

TE Zach Ertz (Commanders) at Vikings: Even with the return last week of No. 1 WR Terry McLaurin, the veteran Ertz had 10-106-0 receiving on 13 targets. He's the No. 4 TE in air yard share (22%), and the Vikings could be without FS Theo Jackson (neck).

Notes for my Week 14 TE Rankings

Byes: This week, all Patriots, 49ers, Panthers and Giants are on bye.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

Tue AM: Publish rankings
Thu AM: Refresh rankings
Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
Sat PM: Update rankings
Sun AM: Revise rankings
Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 p.m. ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a longtime profitable player prop better.

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
Against the Spread (ATS)
Over/Under (O/U)
Team Total (TT)
Moneyline (ML)
Return on Investment (ROI)
Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
Expected Points Added (EPA)
Success Rate (SR)
Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Short Down and Distance (SDD)
Long Down and Distance (LDD)