Week 2 Fantasy Football Mismatch Report: Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl Rematch And More Potential Shootouts
Ian Hartitz explores the fantasy football mismatches for Week 2, starting with the Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl rematch and other games with shootout potential.
Football at its core is a game that features teams attempting to exploit mismatches against each other. This is accomplished through smart X's and O's strategy as well as by simply having some beastly Jimmys and Joes to lean on in the personnel department. While none of us alleged fantasy experts should be confused as professional coaches, we do largely attempt to accomplish the same goal while prepping for any given week: Identify and exploit the biggest mismatches to our advantage.
This brings us to today's goal: Breaking down some of the week's biggest mismatches in an attempt to get an edge in fantasy football land.
A lot of this will be done through my weekly Mismatch Manifesto charts that combine commonly-used matchup metrics in an attempt to turn things into a one-way street as opposed to always having to go, "Offense ranks x, defense ranks y." To put the following data simply: Blue is good for the offense in question, and red is bad. Cool? Cool.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Note: This is part of a Week 2 Fantasy Football Mismatch series featuring:
- Top Running-Game Matchups
- Kyler Murray Blowup Spot
- Will the Raiders let Geno Smith cook?
- Justin Fields and the Jets offense continue to fly high
Get your popcorn ready for the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl rematch
We don't need fancy numbers to explain why Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts squaring off in a rematch of last year's Super Bowl blowout is exciting, but hey, why not provide some anyway?
The following chart denotes every offense's matchup in combined EPA per play based on their Week 1 performance.
Now, it'd make sense if the return of stud Eagles DL Jalen Carter leads to a better defensive performance than what we saw against the Cowboys. Additionally, the expected absence of Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy (shoulder) won't help the cause of Patrick Mahomes and company, who reminder, failed to score a TD until there were just 34 seconds left in the third quarter the last time these squads matched up.
Ultimately, expecting Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce to lead an explosive passing attack might feel like wishful thinking. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts and this passing game looked rather awesome last February—perhaps this rematch will help them get out of a relative Week 1 funk that featured underwhelming performances from A.J. Brown (1-8-0) and DeVonta Smith (3-16-0) alike. Philly will need its star receivers to take their game to another level should TE Dallas Goedert (knee) fail to suit up.
Vegas is relatively optimistic about this game still producing a decent number of points: The Eagles-Chiefs' 46.5-point game total is tied for the third-highest mark of the week. So yay!
Underdog watch: There are seven teams with an on-paper advantage in combined EPA per play, yet are underdogs in the betting markets: Jets (+6.5), Bears (+6), Patriots (+1.5), Jaguars (+3.5), Colts (+1.5), Buccaneers (+2.5) and Raiders (+3.5).
Blowout alert: The 49ers, Cardinals and Rams rather easily boast the largest expected offensive advantages in combined EPA per play.
Shootout city: Other than the Chiefs-Eagles matchup, Bills-Jets, Browns-Ravens and Chargers-Raiders boast the highest game-wide numbers.
This could be ugly: Rams-Titans and Broncos-Colts profile as the two matchups that could feature the most total offensive despair.
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