Week 2 Fantasy Football Mismatch Report: RB Advantages For Christian McCaffrey, James Conner And More
Ian Hartitz identifies the fantasy football mismatches for Week 2, highlighting running backs James Conner, Christian McCaffrey, Javonte Williams and more.
Football at its core is a game that features teams attempting to exploit mismatches against each other. This is accomplished through smart X's and O's strategy as well as by simply having some beastly Jimmys and Joes to lean on in the personnel department. While none of us alleged fantasy experts should be confused as professional coaches, we do largely attempt to accomplish the same goal while prepping for any given week: Identify and exploit the biggest mismatches to our advantage.
This brings us to today's goal: Breaking down some of the week's biggest mismatches in an attempt to get an edge in fantasy football land.
A lot of this will be done through my weekly Mismatch Manifesto charts that combine commonly-used matchup metrics in an attempt to turn things into a one-way street as opposed to always having to go, "Offense ranks x, defense ranks y." To put the following data simply: Blue is good for the offense in question, and red is bad. Cool? Cool.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Note: This is part of a Week 2 Fantasy Football Mismatch series featuring:
- Justin Fields and the Jets offense continue to fly high
- Kyler Murray Blowup Spot
- Will the Raiders let Geno Smith cook?
- Will the Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl rematch shoot out?
The Mount Rushmore of best RB run-game matchups
The following chart denotes every offense's combined *RB* rush yards before contact from Week 1.
The Cowboys, Chiefs, Cardinals and Jets stand out as possessing the week's best matchups on the ground. Of course, the numbers aiding the former two squads are being heavily influenced by:
- The Eagles losing all-world DT Jalen Carter to Spitgate before he could play a single Week 1 snap.
- Miles Sanders ripping off a 49-yard run that featured 37 yards before contact.
That said: It's reasonable to still trust Javonte Williams in this spot after the Cowboys' lead RB dominated the backfield's usage in Week 1. Overall, the ex-Bronco posted the position's seventh-best Utilization Score on his way to posting an RB5 overall finish. There wasn't a ton of explosion on tape, but hey, give Williams credit for pushing several piles and gaining some tough yards—he's in a winnable spot against a tough Giants defensive line that nevertheless allowed the Commanders to rush for 220 yards on 32 carries last week (6.9 yards per pop!).
The other big takeaway here is that James Conner is set up to SMASH in this spot. Overall, nobody has allowed more rushing yards *before* contact to opposing RBs than the Panthers (2.06) dating back to Week 1 of last season, a flaw that was (again) on display in Week 1 against Travis Etienne (16-143-0) and the Jaguars.
Now, it's fair to be at least a little bit concerned about Trey Benson's involvement in this offense. The Cardinals utilized more of a 60/40 split during their Week 1 win over the Saints. Per Fantasy Life Utilization numbers …
Ultimately, Conner profiles for 15+ touches as a 6.5-point home favorite against a defense that hasn't shown any ability to slow down opposing RBs for the better part of the last calendar year. That's enough to earn must-start treatment in my book, even if season-long RB1 aspirations could be tough to reach if Benson stays so involved.
More RBs with plus matchups on the ground: Feature the 49ers and Broncos, led by Christian McCaffrey (duh) and … probably J.K. Dobbins? That was the case in Week 1 at least. Of course, Sean Payton can never simply make his backfield's clear-cut situations to read, as second-rounder RJ Harvey lost a lot of pass-game opportunities to Tyler Badie. Give the rookie credit for largely making the most out of his touches, but for now Dobbins is the only recommended start out of this backfield.
Tough sledding ahead: Things aren't looking too great for the Steelers, Lions, and Raiders this week in the whole "open up big run lanes" department. The former and latter squads join the Bengals as the only three teams to average *negative* RB rush yards before contact in Week 1. Luckily, Ashton Jeanty's every-down workhorse role should lead to better days ahead even in the absence of a dominant offensive line emerging in Vegas, but it's a bit tougher to be optimistic about an individual party in Pittsburgh considering Arthur Smith is back on his bullshit.
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