Week 3 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Kenneth Walker, Chig Okonkwo and More

Quick Sunday morning updates:

• Tucker Kraft is expected to play
• Kevin O'Connell added some context to how good Carson Wentz could be
• Quinshon Judkins expected to start for the Browns
• Catch me and Ian Hartitz on YouTube live at 10amET for a giant Q&A. All we do is answer your questions. 

Now on to everything else!

I dreaded asking my parents to go places when I was a kid.

If I didn’t do my homework before the request, the decision was in God’s hands. I needed to know where I was going, who would be there, what time I’d get there and leave, how I’d get there, what we’d be doing—everything. An ‘I don’t know’ was unacceptable. Last-minute requests? I still hear them laughing. But every once in a while, I’d get a yes. And on my way back to my room, I’d ask the same question:

Is this real?

I’ve uttered the same phrase about ten times this week. We only have two data points, and in some cases, they don’t jibe. Justin Fields went from looking like Lamar Jackson in Week 1 to Tavaris Jackson against the Bills. Detroit returned to its high-scoring ways against the Bears. However, with all of the narrative shifts and changes in production, our ranks and projections are my first stop to help me get my roster set for Week 3.

The Latest and Greatest Fantasy Football News

Friday’s news dump hit us with the biggest case of ‘what’s real,’ as Seattle prepares to host the Saints.

I read Field Yates’ post, and all I could think of was the ‘Turntables’ bit from The Office. Remember, it was Kenneth Walker who spent the backend of the preseason with a foot injury. Zach Charbonnet got more touches and looked poised to force a timeshare. Now, Walker has the backfield all to himself against a defense allowing the sixth-most PPR PPG to opposing rushers. So let’s figure out where to rank him as the rest of the crew adjusts to the news:

As of this writing, Walker already had RB2 value before Charbonnet’s potential absence became a reality. Our projections (brought to you by Xfinity!) had Walker down for 11.3 attempts and 2.4 targets with a similar workload for Charbonnet. If the veteran absorbs 75.0% of the available carries, Walker’s in store for 20.2 attempts. Combined with a light receiving role, I’d look at his usage similar to the RBs currently in Tier 2:

In either case, be sure to watch the latest updates throughout Saturday. The easy part of the Seahawks’ situation is that we have (semi) confirmation that a player will miss the action in Week 3. However, for the Packers, we may have to wait until Sunday for more news.

If anyone from the Packers’ pass-catching corps was going to benefit from Jayden Reed’s upcoming stint on IR, it was Tucker Kraft. At 17.2 PPR PPG, Kraft was the leader in the TE clubhouse. His 21.0% target share through two games ranked seventh-most. But if you’re looking for a potential replacement, Freedman has an option with plug-and-play potential for Week 3:

“Among Titans pass catchers, Okonkwo through two weeks is No. 2 with an 81% snap rate and 79% route rate. Those numbers—along with his 18% target share—make him a borderline TE1, but he's not at all valued that way in the supermajority of leagues...

"Framed differently: We have an opportunity to trade for him and acquire him via waivers before he goes off, which could happen this week against the Colts, who last year were No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+3.7).”

Don’t forget, I’ll be live Sunday morning with Hartitz to talk through all of these situations, answer all the questions you can throw at us, and how we can adjust our rosters. Meanwhile, Adam and Jorge got you covered with the latest injury news:

• RBs
  • D’Andre Swift (quad)
• WRs
  • Xavier Worthy (shoulder)
  • Emeka Egbuka (hip/groin)
• TEs
  • Tyler Warren (toe)
  • Evan Engram (back)

The Week 3 Weather Report

I’ve got my fingers crossed that Week 3 gives us another light week on the weather front. In any case, I’ll be thorough and highlight a few games to monitor ahead of Sunday.

• Game: Cowboys @ Bears
  • Conditions: Rain, 35.0% chance, 0.02 inches per hour (max)
• Game: Texans at Jaguars
  • Conditions, Wind, 14 mph (max), in the direction of the stadium

BLUF: Unless things change, I’m not worried about either of these games.

Let’s go back to Week 1, where I noted the Patriots’ game had a shot to feature some rain. The forecast projected 0.05 inches per hour. Based on past studies, the precip rate only increases the chance for unpredictable events like fumbles or interceptions due to less grip on the ball or worsened field conditions. With even lighter showers on the radar in Chicago, I’m approaching the game the same way (start Rome Odunze!). The (potential) for wind in Jacksonville carries a similar level of concern (i.e., none).

Two key factors to consider when reading a post about wind in the area of a game are wind speed and direction. The first will help set expectations on play volume, as velocities over 20 mph can alter game plans. However, the direction can also have an effect.

Think about it like you’re playing golf. A breeze with or against you will change how much power you put into the swing, depending on your lie. Wind blowing across your intended shot can alter your stance. I just wind up slicing the ball anyway. So, seeing the path of the wind going in the direction lessens any chance of drops in accuracy. Regardless, I’ll do another sweep of the forecasts (13 games outdoors!) later tonight and have any pertinent updates ready for the live show on Sunday morning.

Week 3's LINKS!

• Fantasy Life's weekly rankings
• WR/CB matchups (by yours truly)
• An updated rundown of RB handcuffs
• Freedman's bold predictions, best plays at each position, and more
• Dwain's rankings risers and fallers & Utilization data

I Hope Everyone Else is Wrong

Granted, the Walker/Charbonnet news will shake up the ranks. However, when I was first going through the list of RBs, one of the mid-tier rushers stuck out.

One of these players is averaging more than 20.0 PPR PPG. The number of RBs in the image that has a UR Score of 89 or higher is one (arbitrary cutoff, but roll with the bit here). A single RB of the five is running behind an above-average offensive line in run block win rate.

It’s Javonte Williams.

I’d want Williams over every RB near him in the ranks, except for Josh Jacobs. Not only does he have the opportunity to compete with his peers (and perform better than them). But Dallas’ RB1 has the best situation of the bunch.

• Williams: Bears (opponent), 28.6 (FPPG allowed to RBs), 7.4 (fantasy boost)
• Kamara: Seahawks, 28.6, 2.3
• Brown: Vikings, 23.2, 0.9
• Jeanty: Commanders, 14.7, -2.3
• Jacobs: Browns, 11.8, -4.3

The Cowboys/Bears game has a projected total of 50.5 points (the most relative to the other RBs). Plus, Williams’ workload aligns with the other RBs in Tier 3. I may be overestimating the number of fireworks that go off in Soldier Field, but I’d elevate an RB like Williams for Week 3.