Week 5 Fantasy Football Under-the-Radar Advantages: Josh Allen Rolls the Patriots, Prime RB Mismatches and More

Football at its core is a game that features teams attempting to exploit mismatches against each other. This is accomplished through smart X's and O's strategy as well as by simply having some beastly Jimmys and Joes to lean on in the personnel department. While none of us alleged fantasy experts should be confused as professional coaches, we do largely attempt to accomplish the same goal while prepping for any given week: Identify and exploit the biggest mismatches to our advantage.

This brings us to today's goal: Breaking down some of the week's biggest mismatches in an attempt to get an edge in fantasy football land.

A lot of this will be done through my weekly Mismatch Manifesto charts that combine commonly-used matchup metrics in an attempt to turn things into a one-way street as opposed to always having to go, "Offense ranks x, defense ranks y." To put the following data simply: Blue is good for the offense in question, and red is bad. Cool? Cool.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Week 5 Fantasy Football Matchup Advantages

Get ready for some fireworks in Buffalo

The Patriots' Sunday night clash against the Bills features the week's two biggest on-paper mismatches in terms of combined explosive play rate.

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First up: This Patriots' run game is set up quite nicely against a Bills defense that is one of just four teams to allow triple-digit rushing yards in every game this season. Even worse, Bills Mafia joins the Giants and Bears as the only groups allowing north of six yards per carry. Here's to hoping that DT Ed Oliver (ankle) and LB Matt Milano (pec) are healthy enough to return for this AFC East clash, although it's tough to be too over the moon about any New England RB regardless due to the muddled nature of this three-back committee.

And then we have Josh Allen and company, who are set up quite nicely through the air against a Patriots defense that ranks among the league's bottom-eight units in terms of EPA per dropback, yards per attempt, passer ratio and explosive pass play rate allowed this season. Of course, getting No. 1 CB Christian Gonzalez back last week was huge, and—similar to the Patriots—it's simply hard for us to be too confident in any individual Bills pass catcher despite the plus matchup due to the "Everybody Eats" philosophy going around in Buffalo.

More b-e-a-utiful matchups: The Seahawks, Chargers, Colts and Cowboys are also set up quite well in their quest to create big plays in the passing game. Shoutout to Sam Darnold ahead of his 2022 Panthers QB room clash against Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers; the much-maligned former alleged bust has been playing some of the best football of his career through four weeks in Seattle.

Sam Darnold among 35 qualified QBs:

EPA per dropback: +0.29 (5th)
PFF pass grade: 90.1 (3rd)
Passer rating: 106.5 (6th)
Yards per attempt: 9.1 (tied for 1st)
Completion percentage over expected: +10.4% (1st)

It's 2025 guys get it together: The Commanders, Eagles and Saints stand out as the offenses least expected to produce some explosive chunk gains through the air. Now, getting Jayden Daniels back in Washington is obviously huge, but both of his top-two WRs in Terry McLaurin (quad) and Deebo Samuel (heel) are banged up at the moment. Jesse Minter's Chargers defense has also been causing headaches for opposing QBs, as only the Vikings, Rams and Jaguars have allowed less EPA per dropback than Derwin James and company this season.

The Mount Rushmore of best RB run-game matchups

The following chart denotes every offense's combined *RB* rush yards before contact from Weeks 1-4.

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The top-four plus-matchups feature:

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery vs. the Bengals: Obviously Gibbs is capable of booming in any matchup, but don't discount Montgomery rebounding in a major way after turning nine carries into just 12 yards against Myles Garrett and company last week. Even after that performance the man is averaging a career-best 5.7 yards per carry. Gibbs is getting more pass-down work and fully cemented as a top-five RB, but Monty has 28 TDs in 32 games since joining the Lions in 2023 and continues to profile for 12-15 touches more weeks than not. That archetype is tough to complain about as a massive favorite against a Bengals defense that is 1.) Bad, and 2.) Seemingly at risk of quitting on head coach Zac Taylor if last Monday night's performance was any indication.

Jaguars RB Travis Etienne vs. the Chiefs: The NFL's only RB averaging north of six yards per carry this season, ETN has looked healthy and explosive all season long. This long TD displayed the high-end combination of speed and elusiveness that made the man such a highly-regarded RB prospect in the first place. Sure, Bhayshul Tuten is a promising young RB in his own right (and one of the best handcuffs in fantasy), but it's tough to see the Jaguars moving away from their starter as long as he keeps balling. Etienne is my RB13 on the week—the highest of any Fantasy Life alleged expert ranker.

Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins vs. the Eagles: Continues to look the part as this backfield's best RB. Sure, RJ Harvey is fine in his own right, but the season-long touch discrepancy (62 vs. 36) reflects the reality that Dobbins is the lead dog here. Hell, even Week 4's career-best performance from Harvey didn't really come courtesy of a newfound role improvement; seven of his 18 touches came after Dobbins was pulled from the game upon reaching 100 rushing yards. While I hesitate to call the Eagles a true plus matchup, DT Jalen Carter (shoulder) is banged up and they've allowed 100-plus rushing yards in every game this season. Fire up Dobbins as the mid-tier RB2 he's been all season, and Harvey as a pass-catching-friendly RB3.

Ravens RB Derrick Henry vs. the Texans: Averaging a bonkers 5.8 yards per carry—the second-highest mark of his career—yet hasn't seen more than 12 carries in a game since Week 1. Of course, that's life with a horrendous/injured defense that hasn't afforded the Ravens their usual opportunities to play with a lead; just realize Henry's slow start in fantasy land is far more volume related as opposed to anything to do with performance or the age cliff. Potentially losing Lamar Jackson (hamstring) is far from ideal, but then again maybe that finally compels the Ravens to simply let the big dog eat.

More RBs with plus matchups on the ground: Feature the Saints, Panthers and Texans. The latter backfield should be featuring a new man atop the depth chart in rookie Woody Marks, who rode a newfound lead role into 27.9 PPR points last week. He's not quite an auto-start just yet, but things are certainly moving in the right direction.

Tough sledding ahead: Things aren't looking too great for the Chargers, Vikings, Browns and Colts this week in the whole "open up big run lanes" department. I'm most concerned with Jordan Mason's outlook considering:

Expecting high-end weekly scoring upside inside this Carson Wentz or J.J. McCarthy-led "attack" feels like wishful thinking.
Zavier Scott is involved enough on pass downs to limit Mason from having a TRUE every-down role.
This offensive line just cannot catch a break: C Ryan Kelly (concussion), G Donovan Jackson (wrist) and RT Brian O'Neill (knee, week-to-week) are all kinds of banged up.

Mason and the Vikings have the toughest upcoming schedule stretch in terms of their opponents' PPR points per game allowed to the position. Good luck against Myles Garrett and company!

Could Tua Tagovailoa have all day to throw this week?

It sure looks like it based on combined Weeks 1-4 pressure rates between this week's offensive line and pass-rush matchups.

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This is certainly good news for Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane, who should be in fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes with the Dolphins passing game forced to consolidate after losing Tyreek Hill (knee) for the season. Bumps up the fantasy ranks are also deserved for Malik Washington and TE Darren Waller, who looked spry last Monday night on his way to catching two scores.

But yeah: As much as Jaycee Horn and the Panthers secondary deserves credit for allowing the NFL's fewest receiving yards to opposing WRs, this front-seven simply hasn't managed to get anything going. In fact, they're the league's worst unit in "Havoc," which measures the percentage of plays that a defense managed to produce a pressure, tackle for a loss, interception, fumble or pass breakup.

Bottom-five defenses in "Havoc:"

Saints (27.9%)
Titans (27.4%)
Ravens (27.3%)
Bengals (25.4%)
Panthers (22.2%)

QBs who could be doing their best David Bowie impressions (get it? Under pressure?): Include Jalen Hurts, Cooper Rush, Dillon Gabriel and Justin Fields. Of course, it's tough to be too concerned with Fields considering how lethal the 26-year-old talent is as a rusher. Consider: Fields' 35.8 fantasy points from *only* rushing trail just Jalen Hurts (41.9), and that's with the ex-Bears/Steelers QB only having played three games!

Guess who could have ALL day to throw this week: Well, the numbers say Jaxson Dart, Bo Nix, Jared Goff, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray could join Tua as the week's top QBs who should have clean pockets on more dropbacks than not. Here's to hoping Sunday's matchup against the Titans helps Kyler and this Cardinals passing game start getting the most out of Marvin Harrison Jr.: The second-year WR has the best upcoming schedule stretch of any player at the position.

Are the Colts willing to let Indiana Jones cook?

I hope so! Daniel Jones has the week's single-best matchup in terms of combined pass yards per dropback.

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Jones has been nothing short of marvelous through four weeks, easily setting career-best marks in pretty much any efficiency stat out there. In fact, Jones leads the entire NFL with 8.4 net yards per pass attempt, which also accounts for sacks. This is not normal!

Jones is the consensus QB8 in the Fantasy Life Rankings ahead of guys like Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield. The likes of Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman should also be started in lineups of pretty much all shapes and sizes against a Raiders defense that has generally funneled opponent production through the air.

There should also be plenty of aerial success from the: Bills, Lions, Seahawks and Chargers. I'm particularly bullish on Jameson Williams having a nice bounceback this week. Detroit certainly did its best to get him going last week: Williams led all players with a whopping 195 unrealized yards—the third-highest single-game mark going back to at least 2022! Obviously having under 50 receiving yards in three of his first four games hasn't been ideal; just realize the Lions are trying, and I wouldn't bet on the speedy fourth-year field-stretcher staying quiet for too much longer.

Local birds beware: On the bad side of things, the Titans, Commanders, Eagles and Browns profile as the bottom-four worst passing attacks. Rookie QB Cam Ward has thrown for 112, 175, 219 and most recently 108 passing yards this season. There have been a few cool/dangerous highlights featuring the No. 1 overall pick showing off his arm talent by throwing back across the field, but yeah: Things have otherwise been horrible. Just ask Cam. Now, it would make sense if this passing game improves as the season goes on—they really can't get any worse—but there are two winnable matchups ahead against the Cardinals (22nd in EPA allowed per dropback) and Raiders (24th). I guess I'm saying there's a chance!

Get your popcorn ready for Cowboys-Jets

The following chart denotes every offense's matchup in combined EPA per play based on their Weeks 1-4 performance.

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Dallas ranks first in total yards on offense … and dead last in total yards allowed on defense. This is basically the 2024 Bengals reincarnated: Every matchup has the potential to turn into a fantasy-friendly shootout—enjoy the ride!

Underdog watch: There are five teams with an on-paper advantage in combined EPA per play, yet are underdogs in the betting markets: Broncos (+3.5), Ravens (+1.5), Giants (+2), Panthers (+1.5) and the Jaguars (+3.5).

Blowout alert: The Lions, Cardinals and Colts rather easily boast the largest expected offensive advantages in combined EPA per play over the Bengals, Titans and Raiders, respectively.

Shootout city: Other than the Cowboys-Jets matchup, Bills-Patriots, Panthers-Dolphins, and Ravens-Texans boast the highest game-wide numbers.

This could be ugly: Vikings-Browns easily profiles as the week's top matchup when it comes to featuring the most total offensive despair. It is pretty hilarious that we're blessing London with Carson Wentz vs. Dillon Gabriel, but hey, sucks to suck: Shouldn't have lost the Revolutionary War!