Conference Championships Guilloteenie Draft Review: Kenneth Walker Leads RB-Heavy Start
Matt LaMarca has a round-by-round breakdown of a single-chop Guilloteenie draft for the Conference Championships, noting the results of his RB-heavy approach.
The NFL season is coming to a close, with just three games left on the schedule. Fortunately, there are still plenty of ways to get your fantasy fix. Guillotine Leagues™️ are still alive and kicking, with new contests forming daily for the Conference Championships and Super Bowl.
I recently completed a Guilloteenie draft with two of my best friends from high school, with whom I’ve been playing fantasy football for more than 20 years. We still play in a home league together, and it was a great way to introduce them to one of my favorite new ways of playing the game.
If you’re new to Guillotine Leagues, the Guilloteenie format is pretty simple. Your goal is simply not to finish last each week. With only two rounds left in the NFL playoffs, that means that single-chop leagues will feature just three teams in new startups, while double-chop leagues will feature four. Each roster will consist of eight players: one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, two flexes and one tight end. Every player that you draft has to be started, so taking a shot on a questionable player carries significant risk. You do have the potential to replace that player in free agency before kickoff, but the level of replacement players is going to be pretty low.
At the end of each week, the team with the lowest score will be chopped, and their players will be placed on the waiver wire. All of the remaining teams will be able to bid on those players in free agency.
Let’s dive into my recent draft and break down a few key takeaways. I picked second in my three-team league, so I was smack dab in the middle for each round.
Single-Chop Guilloteenie Draft Review for Conference Championships
Round 1: Surprise Early RB
1.01: Puka Nacua
1.02: Kenneth Walker (ML)
1.03: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
These should undoubtedly be the first three players off the board. Nacua and Smith-Njigba have the highest raw projections for the Conference Championships, and both players have cases to be selected first overall. Nacua has been slightly better than Smith-Njigba from a fantasy standpoint this season, but JSN’s team is favored on Sunday. That gives him a slightly better chance at playing multiple games.
However, the positional scarcity at running back pushed me toward Walker. There are only four NFL teams left to choose from, but there will have to be a minimum of six starting RBs in this contest. That leaves a really thin pool of players to choose from, much thinner than what is available at WR.
Walker is also the clear-cut No. 1 option at his position. The other three remaining teams use some sort of committee, while Walker has a chance to be a true bell cow for Seattle moving forward. With Zach Charbonnet (torn ACL) now out of the picture, Walker could step into a sizable role.
He’s been efficient all season, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and he erupted for 116 rushing yards and 3 scores last week. He’s also cracked 20+ PPR points in both previous matchups vs. the Rams this season, and those were with Charbonnet in the lineup. He’s my 1.01 in new Guilloteenie startups.
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Round 2: Double Up On RB
2.01: Kyren Williams
2.02: Rhamondre Stevenson (ML)
2.03: Davante Adams
After the top 3, there’s a drop off to the next tier of players. There are a bunch of guys you could choose from in the next round, and I once again chose to prioritize the running back position.
Stevenson is my personal No. 2 option at the position this week, so I was pretty happy to grab him after Williams. The Patriots are the biggest favorites of the week, and with the Broncos down starting QB Bo Nix, they have a really strong chance of advancing to the Super Bowl.
Stevenson also continues to prove that he’s the back to target in New England. He’s dominated the high-value touches all season, and that has continued in the postseason. He’s also had a larger workload in general than TreVeyon Henderson during the playoffs, including a 62% snap share and 55% carry share last week.
Stevenson has now posted double-digit fantasy points in seven straight games, and he’s had 15+ in four of them. He gives me a rock-solid floor at RB, while some of my competitors will be struggling to round out that position later in the draft.
Round 3: Robust RB Or Bust
3.01: Matthew Stafford
3.02: RJ Harvey (ML)
3.03: Drake Maye
Both of my leaguemates opted for QB here, and it’s hard to argue too much against that. Stafford and Maye ranked tied for second in terms of fantasy points per game during the regular season, so they’re much better options than Sam Darnold and Jarrett Stidham on paper.
Still, I’m sticking to my strategy of attacking the RB position. Not only does Harvey stand out as a solid flex option from a projections standpoint, but he also “blocks” my opponents from using him at RB later. By selecting a RB for one of my flex spots, I’m essentially forcing my leaguemates to go deeper into the position for their starters. Instead of RB6 being the last running back drafted, I’m forcing it to be RB7. That may not sound like a huge difference, but with only four NFL teams to choose from, it has the potential to be massive.
There’s definitely a chance that Harvey takes a step back this week. Not only have the Patriots been excellent against the run when at full strength this season, but there’s a chance that J.K. Dobbins returns to the lineup. The Broncos have opened his practice window, and if he’s cleared to return on Sunday, he could step back into the starting RB role.
Harvey should still have a change-of-pace role at a minimum, and he should rack up a few targets out of the backfield. Like Stevenson, he gives me a solid floor: he’s scored at least 11.6 PPR points in six of his past seven outings, with the Week 18 blowout vs. the Chargers the lone exception.
Round 4: TE Time
4.01: Kayshon Boutte
4.02: Hunter Henry (ML)
4.03: TreVeyon Henderson
We saw a trio of Patriots come off the board in the fourth round, but maybe not the ones you were expecting. The biggest curveball here was Boutte over Stefon Diggs, but Boutte did outscore him last week and was on the field for a higher percentage of pass plays. I still prefer Diggs, but it’s not ridiculous to take Boutte ahead of him.
I decided to secure the top remaining tight end in Henry. He was 13th at the position in PPR points per game during the regular season, and no other remaining tight end was inside the top 20. He’s our consensus TE1 in our Conference Championship rankings, and the Broncos haven’t been quite as effective against tight ends as they have against receivers. It results in a +1.3 xFinity boost for Henry, which is the best mark at the position.
Round 5: A WR1 With A Question Mark
5.01: Stefon Diggs
5.02: Courtland Sutton (ML)
5.03: Colby Parkinson
With RB and TE locked up, I can focus on filling out my two receiver spots and my one remaining flex spot with my next three picks. Because my two leaguemates have already selected their QBs and there are no bench spots, I can wait until my last pick to draft my quarterback.
I was hoping to grab Diggs here, but Sutton is a solid consolation prize. He was quiet for most of last week’s game vs. the Bills, but he still finished with a 23% target share and 9.3 PPR points. Sutton had a 27% target share Weeks 14-17, and with the team dealing with some injury question marks at receiver, Sutton should remain the team’s clear-cut No. 1 option. Stidham is also an above-average backup quarterback, so I’m not expecting a huge decrease in passing production from the Broncos without Nix.
Round 6: Drink of the Kupp
6.01: Rashid Shaheed
6.02: Cooper Kupp (ML)
6.03: Blake Corum
Shaheed was the second Seahawks’ pass catcher off the board after JSN went back in Round 1, but I think Kupp is the superior option. Shaheed certainly has more big-play upside, and he had his third score as a kick returner since being acquired by the Seahawks last week.
However, Kupp has been the more consistent part of the team’s passing attack. He has a better route participation and target share than Shaheed since the latter was acquired, and Kupp’s target share was above 30% last week. It was over a small sample size, with Darnold attempting just 17 passes, but it’s something that we’ve seen pretty consistently over the past two months.
Kupp caught all 5 of his targets for 60 yards vs. the 49ers, and I’m once again prioritizing his floor with this selection.
Round 7: Flex With Benefits
7.01: Tyler Ferguson
7.02: Marvin Mims (ML)
7.03: AJ Barner
Mims rounds out my starting lineup (outside of quarterback), and this shows the benefit of attacking RB early. While both of my leaguemates are going to have to roll the dice on shaky RB2s who might give them minimal production in the latter rounds, I’m grabbing a wide receiver who is coming off 20+ PPR points just last week.
I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance vs. the Patriots, but Mims certainly has the potential to be a big part of the game plan. Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant are both dealing with injuries, and if they’re sidelined vs. New England, it would leave Mims as the team’s clear No. 2 receiver. Mims had a 70% route participation and 23% target share in that role last week en route to the top fantasy score at the receiver position.
Round 8: Finally, A QB
8.01: J.K. Dobbins
8.02: Sam Darnold (ML)
8.03: George Holani
Here is where you really see the early RB strategy paying off. Dobbins and Holani are both not even on their team’s active roster at this point. That could change before Sunday, and if they’re not activated, these guys will have the opportunity to make a change on waivers. But there aren’t a ton of appealing replacements out there. The best remaining RB is probably Jaleel McLaughlin, while the rest of the Broncos’ receiving corps make up the most appealing flex options.
I finished up my build with Darnold, who is the clear QB3 this week. Darnold is still looking to prove that he can compete on the biggest stage, and it’s hard to have too much confidence with him heading into this matchup. Still, I’d much rather have him than Stidham, who hasn’t thrown a pass in an NFL game since 2023.
Takeaways
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, you need to attack RB early and often. I tried passing up the position early in a double-chop league I completed with Matthew Freedman, Brian Johnson and Nando DiFino, and as a result, I was left with Cam Akers and McLaughlin at the position. Maybe my guys at the other positions can carry me through this round, but it was clearly a mistake. My roster in this format feels much more balanced, with all eight guys capable of cracking double-digit PPR points.
Also, make sure to pay just as much attention to who your leaguemates are drafting as you do to your own team. Knowing that both guys I was drafting with had QB secured by Round 3 meant I knew I was safe to take Darnold in the eighth. You don’t have the same luxury at all the other positions—RBs, WRs and TEs can all be used in the flex—but what positions your opponents need to fill can certainly give you a blueprint for which positions you can wait on.
Finally, make sure to have fun with this. Getting to do this draft with two guys I’ve known for going on 30 years was an absolute blast. The draft took less than 15 minutes, but we haven’t stopped talking smack with one another since. Fantasy remains one of the best ways to stay in contact with your various friend groups, and Guilloteenies are a super-easy way to extend that fun into the playoffs.
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