The All-Upside Fantasy Football Draft: The Risky Players Who Can Win You a Title

This is a piece about the risky NFL players who could help you win your 2025 fantasy league.

Sexy, right?

But before we get into it, let me set expectations.

First, these guys are risky: Some of them will fail. But the guys in this group who hit could do so in a big way.

Second, starting in Round 5 or so, the risk associated with any draft pick is greatly diminished. So this list will look only at guys with a consensus average draft position in Rounds 1-4 (based on our Fantasy Life ADP Draft Board).

Naturally, some of these players are my favorite 2025 fantasy draft picks.

Let's get to it!

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Risky Players to Draft in Round 1

RB Christian McCaffrey (49ers)

I've been talking positively about Christian McCaffrey all offseason.

Last year, he was the 1.01 in all formats, and now he's widely available in the middle of Round 1.

He's definitely not without risk: Last year, he played in only four games. And in the 2020-21 seasons, he played just 10 games. Plus, he's 29 years old.

But McCaffrey is among the RBs projected for 50+ targets and RBs projected for 10+ TDs.

When healthy, he has an elite ceiling/floor combo—and he's entering the season fully healthy.

WR Malik Nabers (Giants)

I just drafted Malik Nabers in Round 1 of a 0.5-PPR three-WR mock draft (via our Draft Champion Simulator).

Last year—as a rookie—he was No. 1 at the position with a 36% target share and No. 2 with an 84% WOPR (per our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool), and he leveraged that usage into 109-1,204-7 receiving in 15 games.

I have Nabers projected for an NFL-high 167 targets.

But he's also tied to QBs Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Jaxson Dart. He has one of the league's worst pass-game situations.

We can't act as if he has no downside.

Risky Players to Draft in Round 2

RB De'Von Achane (Dolphins)

Over the past two years, De'Von Achane (calf) has been one of the league's most exciting RBs, putting up 2,496 yards and 23 TDs in 28 games.

And last year, he had an outstanding 1,151 yards and 11 TDs in his 11 games with QB Tua Tagovailoa.

But therein lies some of Achane's risk: Tagovailoa has played only one full season in his five-year career, and when Tagovailoa has been out, the Dolphins' offense has underwhelmed.

Plus, Achane is small (5'9", 191 lbs.). The Dolphins might opt to scale back his workload in an attempt to keep him healthier for the entire season.

Thanks to his explosiveness (5.6 yards per carry, 6.4 yards per target) and three-down skill set (306 carries, 124 targets), Achane has the upside to finish as the No. 1 RB overall, but his risk is apparent, especially now that he has a (albeit minor) leg injury entering the season.

RB Chase Brown (Bengals)

Chase Brown is one of my recent rankings risers.

His upside is almost too obvious to need elucidation: Without former starter Zack Moss (since released), Brown in eight games had 930 yards and six TDs on 151 carries, 44 targets, and a position-best 95 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

And his preseason usage has been indicatively positive.

Check out Dwain McFarland's excellent preseason breakdowns: Week 1, Week 2 & Week 3.

That said, Brown hasn't been notably efficient throughout his career (4.3 yards per carry, 4.9 yards per target), and his fifth-round draft pedigree affords him no job security buffer.

Even so, the Bengals are accustomed to accepting modest efficiency from workhorse backs (see 2017-23 Joe Mixon).

As noted on the first episode of the Talk Data to Me show with Dwain McFarland, what matters most for RBs is volume, and I expect Brown to get it in 2025.

Risky Players to Draft in Round 3

WR Tyreek Hill (Dolphins)

Without question, Tyreek Hill carries risk. He's 31 years old. He's tied to injury-addled QB Tua Tagovailoa. His play markedly fell off last season (1,012 scrimmage yards, 7.8 yards per target). And Hill (oblique) is already dealing with an injury issue.

Even so, I think he is one of this year's biggest ADP values.

Last year, he was a top-three fantasy pick. Now, he's a Round 3 selection.

Why?

Tagovailoa missed six games, and Hill suffered a wrist injury that bothered him all season.

And yet, despite his disappointing 2025 campaign, he has averaged 9.6 yards per target in his three seasons with the Dolphins and 9.5 for his career.

In his first two seasons with the Dolphins, he was a two-time first-team All-Pro with 3,556 yards and 21 TDs from scrimmage.

That kind of ceiling is worth shooting for in Round 3.

RB Omarion Hampton (Chargers)

Rookies are inherently risky, because we can't assume that what they did in college will automatically translate to the NFL.

On top of that, Omarion Hampton is playing alongside veteran RB Najee Harris, who has never missed a game or had fewer than 1,200 yards in any season of his four-year career.

But the Chargers selected him in Round 1. He's big (6'0", 221 lbs.) and fast (4.46-second 40-yard dash). He played well in college (3,759 yards, 33 TDs in final 25 games). He's likely to see plenty of action in a run-heavy offense under HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman.

And Harris (eye) is still dealing with a fireworks-related injury he suffered on the Fourth of July.

For good reason, Hampton is Matthew Berry's 2025 Ride-or-Die.

Risky Players to Draft in Round 4

WR Davante Adams (Rams)

The risk with Davante Adams is clear. He's not even the No. 1 WR on his team. He turns 33 years old in December. The Rams are his third team in less than a year. And QB Matthew Stafford (back) could be one big hit away from retirement.

Additionally, Adams has seen a dip in efficiency. In 2020-22, he was a three-time first-team All-Pro with 8.9 yards per target. In the two seasons since then, he's averaged just 7.0 yards per target.

But over the past two years, Adams has still been on par with No. 1 WR Puka Nacua as a producer.

Opportunities: Nacua - 10.3 | Adams - 10.2
Yards: Nacua - 93.3 | Adams - 71.2
TDs: Nacua - 0.36 | Adams - 0.52

Nacua has accumulated more yards, but he's had the benefit of playing with Stafford (and offensive HC Sean McVay), but Adams—on lesser teams—has easily been the more prolific scorer, and they've earned a nearly identical number of opportunities (targets plus carries).

Adams probably won't outproduce Nacua this season, but they both could finish as top-12 WRs in fantasy.

Most importantly, my gut agrees with my aggressive projection for Adams.

RB Alvin Kamara (Saints)

Alvin Kamara is one of my favorite Zero RB candidates.

I have him projected for an NFL-high 90 targets and absolutely love him for this season.

I see his risk: The Saints' offense could be atrocious this year. They have the league's worst QB room with Spencer Rattler, Tyler Shough, and Jake Haener. And Kamara is 30 years old.

But just once has Kamara had fewer than 1,300 scrimmage yards in a season, and last year he had 1,493 yards and eight TDs in 14 games with a position-high 93 Utilization Score.

That production was right in line with what Kamara has done throughout his career: 11,541 scrimmage yards in 115 games.

As long as Kamara stays healthy, he should still get 200+ carries and 80+ targets—and the Saints' offense might be better than expected with new HC Kellen Moore.