Week 15 QB Rankings: J.J. McCarthy, Trevor Lawrence and More

It's Week 15.

Fantasy playoffs. Holiday shopping for people who are almost strangers (a.k.a. "family"). Trying to avoid Christmas music like the plague.

It's the best time of the year. 

Let's get into the Week 15 QB Rankings edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

• Favorable betting factors and situational spots
• Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
• Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series and my Week 15 fantasy rankings, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 15 fantasy football plays.

• Week 15 RB Rankings
• Week 15 WR Rankings
• Week 15 TE Rankings

To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

Week 15 Quarterback Rankings

Matchup Upgrades In The Week 15 QB Rankings: Trevor Lawrence vs. Jets & J.J. McCarthy vs. Cowboys

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Jets and Cowboys are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for QBs.

• Jets: No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA (36.3%)
• Cowboys: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+6.6)

Bang a gong.

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) vs. Jets: The Jets secondary looks like a Picasso painting—and not in a good way. The team traded away top CBs Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter. Certain to miss this game are CB Jarvis Brownlee (hip, IR) and FS Andre Cisco (pec, IR), and CB Azareye'h Thomas (shoulder) and SS Tony Adams (groin) could also be out. The sample is small, but over the past two weeks Lawrence has played his best football of the year (9.7 AY/A, 7-41-0 rushing).

J.J. McCarthy (Vikings) at Cowboys: In his return from injury last week, McCarthy put together the most complete game of his short career (163 yards, three TDs passing on a 69.6% completion rate, 9.7 AY/A). The Cowboys could be without EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (hamstring), and McCarthy is on the positive side of his indoor/outdoor splits (172.4 yards passing per game in a dome vs. 115.0 outside). As I said last week: "I wouldn't dream of starting McCarthy in Guillotine Leagues™, but I'll say this about him … he's not Max Brosmer."

Scoring Upgrades In The Week 15 Quarterback Rankings: Brock Purdy vs. Titans & Matthew Stafford vs. Lions

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the QB."

This week, the 49ers are No. 1 in implied team total (29 points), followed by the Rams at No. 2 (28.5).

Upgrades warranted.

Brock Purdy (49ers) vs. Titans: The 49ers should be healthy and prepared coming off the bye, and Purdy's at home, where this year he has 251.0 yards passing per game (vs. 215.0 on the road). The Titans are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.186).

Matthew Stafford (Rams) vs. Lions: “How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!” Stafford is a -160 favorite to win MVP (FanDuel), he has a position-high five top-five fantasy finishes this year, and he has a #RevengeGame against the Lions, who could be without three secondary starters in CB Terrion Arnold (shoulder, IR), SS Brian Branch (Achilles, out), and FS Kerby Joseph (knee, out Weeks 7-14).

Week 15 QB Rankings - Defensive Injury Upgrades: Drake Maye vs. Bills & Lamar Jackson vs. Bengals

Here are a couple of QBs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Drake Maye (Patriots) vs. Bills: Maye has played at an MVP-caliber level this year (3,412 yards and 23 TDs passing, 81-319-2 rushing), and the Pats should be at peak capacity off the bye. The Bills could be exhausted after their 39-34 victory over the Bengals last week, and EDGE Joey Bosa (hamstring), LB Terrel Bernard (elbow), and FS Cole Bishop (undisclosed) might all be out.

Lamar Jackson (Ravens) at Bengals: Jackson looked a little more like himself last week (7-43-1 rushing), and although he didn't play well against the Bengals just two weeks ago (53.1% completion rate, 6.3 AY/A, 6-27-0 rushing), they're still No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+5.2), and EDGEs Trey Hendrickson (hip) and Joseph Ossai (shin) are injured.

Indoors Upgrades In The Week 15 QB Rankings: Dak Prescott vs. Vikings & C.J. Stroud vs. Cardinals

In general, I want to be heavy on QBs playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature, or precipitation. Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) vs. Vikings: The Cowboys should benefit from three extra days of rest and preparation off Thursday Night Football, and Prescott has passed for 1,318 yards and nine TDs (to four INTs) and chipped in 15-17-1 rushing in four games since the Week 10 bye. Prescott is on the massively positive side of his environmental splits for the year (314.0 passing yards per game indoors vs. 225.0 outdoors).

C.J. Stroud (Texans) vs. Cardinals: Stroud has looked competent in back-to-back road games since returning from injury (479 yards, 6.9 AY/A), and now he's home. The Cards are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (52.3%), and CB Max Melton (heel) might be out once again.

Notes For My Week 15 QB Rankings

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life Newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish rankings
• Thu AM: Refresh rankings
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
• Sat PM: Update rankings
• Sun AM: Revise rankings
• Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long Down and Distance (LDD)

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