Week 15 WR Rankings: Michael Wilson, Jakobi Meyers and More
Matthew Freedman highlights the biggest upgrades at the WR position in his Week 15 fantasy football rankings.
It's Week 15.
The fantasy playoffs are here. It's the season to make all those losers in your friends-and-family league understand who the real boss is.
Let's get into the Week 15 WR edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series and my Week 15 fantasy rankings, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 15 fantasy football plays.
To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Week 15 Wide Receiver Rankings
Matchup Upgrades In My Week 15 WR Rankings: Zay Flowers vs. Bengals & Jakobi Meyers vs. Jets
There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever WRs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.
Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Bengals and Jets are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for WRs.
- Bengals: No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (52.8%)
- Jets: No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA (36.3%)
Bang a gong.
Zay Flowers (Ravens) at Bengals: Flowers was abysmal two weeks ago against the Bengals (2-6-0 receiving, seven targets), but last week he rebounded (126 yards, 11 targets, one carry), and in his 10 games this year with QB Lamar Jackson, he has 746 yards on 71 targets and eight carries. He hasn't scored a TD since Week 1—but with his production, at some point the scoring will come.
Jakobi Meyers (Jaguars) vs. Jets: Following his Week 10 trade to the Jags, Meyers has been a full-time player over the past three games with 14-179-3 receiving on 22 targets and 4-12-0 rushing. No. 3 WR Parker Washington (hip) is uncertain, and the Jets—after trading away top CBs Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter—are now without CB Jarvis Brownlee (hip, IR) and also maybe CB Azareye'h Thomas (shoulder).
Scoring Upgrades In My Week 15 WR Rankings: Puka Nacua vs. Lions & Jauan Jennings vs. Titans
Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the WRs."
This week, the 49ers are No. 1 in implied team total (29 points) followed by the Rams at No. 2 (28.5).
Upgrades warranted.
Puka Nacua (Rams) vs. Lions: Nacua "coasted" with 32-403-2 receiving on 42 targets and 3-21-0 rushing in five games after returning from injury in Week 9, but last week he finally looked like the peak version of himself with 7-167-2 receiving on 11 targets. The Lions are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+6.4) and seem likely to be without three secondary starters in CB Terrion Arnold (shoulder, IR), SS Brian Branch (Achilles, out), and FS Kerby Joseph (knee, out Weeks 7-14).
Jauan Jennings (49ers) vs. Titans: Since Jennings returned to full practice in Week 8, he has a 24% target share, 35% air yard share, and 33% endzone target share, and he should be close to peak capacity off the Week 14 bye. The Titans are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (46.4%), No. 1 CB L'Jarius Sneed (quad, IR) is out, and No. 2 CB Jalyn Armour-Davis (Achilles) is uncertain.
Defensive Injury Upgrades in My Week 15 Wide Receiver Rankings: Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Colts & Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Commanders
Here are several WRs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs. Colts: Smith-Njigba has a position-high four top-five fantasy finishes this year, and he's the No. 1 WR in Utilization Score (94, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). He has leveraged his unreal efficiency (11.8 yards per target) into a league-high 1,428 yards receiving, and he has an advantageous matchup against the Colts, who are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+5.0) and likely to be without No. 1 CB Sauce Gardner (calf).
Wan'Dale Robinson (Giants) vs. Commanders: Robinson is 55-591-2 receiving on 83 targets with 2-2-0 rushing in nine games without No. 1 WR Malik Nabers (knee, IR). The Giants offense should be at its best off the Week 14 bye, and the Commanders—now without CBs Marshon Lattimore (knee, IR) and Trey Amos (leg, IR)—are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.267).
Luther Burden (Bears) vs. Browns: Without No. 1 WR Rome Odunze (foot), Burden this past week had a nice season-high 69% route rate, which he leveraged into a team-high six targets. With 9.9 yards per target and 5-27-0 rushing, Burden will break out at some point. The Browns could be without CB Denzel Ward (hip).
Jerry Jeudy (Browns) at Bears: I mentioned Jeudy last week, and he had 3-76-1 receiving on five targets, so he gets a second, obligatory callout. In QB Shedeur Sanders' three starts, Jeudy has a 92% route rate and 30% air yard share. For the Bears, CBs Tyrique Stevenson (hip) and Kyler Gordon (groin) are questionable.
Week 15 WR Rankings - Offensive Injury Upgrades: Michael Wilson vs. Texans & Ryan Flournoy vs. Vikings
Here are a couple of WRs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.
Michael Wilson (Cardinals) at Texans: WRs Marvin Harrison (heel), Xavier Weaver (hamstring), and Greg Dortch (chest, IR) were all out last week, and in their absence, Wilson had 11-142-2 receiving on 16 targets. The matchup against the Texans is tough, but in his three games this year without Harrison, Wilson has 36-445-2 receiving on 49 targets.
Ryan Flournoy (Cowboys) vs. Vikings: WR CeeDee Lamb (concussion) exited Thursday Night Football with a head injury, and Flournoy stepped up with a career-high 13 targets, which translated into 9-115-1 receiving. In Guillotine Leagues™, you shouldn't even dream about starting him, but Flournoy should be added on waivers.
Week 15 Indoors Upgrades: Nico Collins vs. Cardinals & Chris Olave vs. Panthers
In general, I want to be heavy on WRs playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature, or precipitation. Here are two such WRs who stand out.
Nico Collins (Texans) vs. Cardinals: In six games since the Week 8 bye, Collins has 35-577-1 receiving on 57 targets with 1-7-1 rushing. The Cards are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (52.3%), and CB Max Melton (heel) missed last week.
Chris Olave (Saints) vs. Panthers: Since the team traded No. 2 WR Rashid Shaheed in Week 10, Olave has a 91% route rate, 28% target share, 49% air yard share, and 67% endzone target share, which he has converted into 21-251-2 receiving on 33 targets. The Panthers are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (24.5%).
Air Yards Upgrades In My Week 15 WR Rankings: Jaylen Waddle vs. Steelers & DK Metcalf vs. Dolphins
The WRs who are targeted downfield—the guys with high aDOTs, air yard shares, and WOPRs—have an elevated chance each week of enjoying a spike performance.
You can see aDOT, air yards, and WOPR in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool. "WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.
Here are two air yard accumulators who have my attention this week.
Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins) at Steelers: In nine games this year without No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill (knee, IR), Waddle has 40-627-4 receiving on a 52% air yard share and 38% endzone target share, along with 1-21-0 rushing and eight yards passing. The Steelers are No. 6 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (29.6).
DK Metcalf (Steelers) vs. Dolphins: Metcalf went off last week with 7-148-0 receiving on 12 targets, and since the Week 5 bye he has a 46% air yard share and 44% endzone target share. The Dolphins are No. 28 in defensive dropback SR (50.7%).
Notes For My Week 15 WR Rankings
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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