Week 15 TE Rankings: George Kittle, Brenton Strange and More
Matthew Freedman released his favorite plays at the TE position for fantasy football in Week 15, featuring George Kittle, Brenton Strange and more.
In the words of the Doors: "The time to hesitate is through. No time to wallow in the mire."
Let's get into the Week 15 TE edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
Let's get into the Week 15 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series and my Week 15 fantasy rankings, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 15 fantasy football plays.
To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Week 15 Tight End Rankings for Fantasy Football
HOU TEN PHI TB CHI SEA NYJ MIN LAC NE CIN CLE
| HOU |
| TEN |
| PHI |
| TB |
| CHI |
| SEA |
| NYJ |
| MIN |
| LAC |
| NE |
| CIN |
| CLE |
Week 15 Matchup Upgrades: Brenton Strange vs. Jets & Isaiah Likely vs. Bengals
There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.
Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Bengals and Jets are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for WRs.
- Bengals: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+9.2)
- Jets: No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (21.2%)
Bang a gong.
Brenton Strange (Jaguars) vs. Jets: Strange disappointed last week (3-27-0 receiving), but he still had 6 targets, and in his three games since returning from injury in Week 12 he has a 73% route rate. No. 3 WR Parker Washington (hip) is questionable, FS Andre Cisco (pec, IR) is out, and SS Tony Adams (groin) missed last week.
Isaiah Likely (Ravens) at Bengals: Likely went off against the Bengals two weeks ago (5-95-0 receiving, 6 targets), and last week he had 4-25-1 receiving (with a second "almost" TD) on 6 targets. Since the return of QB Lamar Jackson in Week 9, Likely (26 targets, 222 yards) has essentially been a co-No. 1 TE with Mark Andrews (27 targets, 5 carries, 174 yards).
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Week 15 Scoring Upgrades: George Kittle vs. Titans & Colby Parkinson vs. Lions
Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the TEs."
This week the 49ers are No. 1 in implied team total (29 points) followed by the Rams at No. 2 (28.5).
Upgrades warranted.
George Kittle (49ers) vs. Titans: Since Week 8 (shortly after he returned from injury), Kittle in six games has 33-371-4 receiving on 39 targets, an 87% route rate, 22% target share and elite 90 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). He should be in peak form off the Week 14 bye.
Colby Parkinson (Rams) vs. Lions: With No. 1 TE Tyler Higbee (ankle, IR) on the sideline, Parkinson had a 71% route rate, 17% target share and 25% end zone target share last week. And in six games since the Week 8 bye, Parkinson has morphed into a real red-zone weapon with 4 TDs (and 19 receptions for 165 yards) on 23 targets. The Lions will be without SS Brian Branch (Achilles) and probably FS Kerby Joseph (knee), who has been out since Week 7.
Week 15 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Kyle Pitts vs. Buccaneers & Darren Waller vs. Steelers
Here are a couple TEs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.
Kyle Pitts (Falcons) at Buccaneers: No. 1 WR Drake London (knee) has missed the past three weeks, and in his absence Pitts has had 15-197-0 receiving on 23 targets with a 92% route rate, 28% target share and 37% air yard share. He's the No. 4 TE in WOPR (45%), and the Bucs might be without SS Tykee Smith (neck).
You can see aDOT, air yards and WOPR in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool. "WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.
Darren Waller (Dolphins) at Steelers: Waller hasn't been especially impressive since his Week 13 return from injury (3-60-0 receiving on 6 targets, 1-4-0 rushing), but he's still the No. 4 TE in air yard share (20%) and No. 2 TE in end-zone target share (45%). The Steelers are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (13.0), and SS Kyle Dugger (hand) missed last week.
Week 15 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Harold Fannin vs. Bears & Jake Ferguson vs. Vikings
Here are a couple TEs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.
Harold Fannin (Browns) at Bears: Oh baby, here we go! Last week Fannin had a position-high 21.4 fantasy points with a career-best 8-114-1 receiving on 11 targets, an 85% route rate and a blazing 99 Utilization Score. TEs David Njoku (knee) and Brenden Bates (ankle) are both questionable, so Fannin could once again see a large workload this week. If available, Fannin is a waiver wire priority.
Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) vs. Vikings: WR CeeDee Lamb (concussion) exited last week with an injury and is questionable. In the five games this year that Lamb either missed entirely or left early, Ferguson has 35-262-4 receiving on 40 targets. The Vikings could be without FS Theo Jackson (neck).
Notes for my Week 15 RB Rankings
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 p.m. ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a longtime profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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