Backfield Battles: De'Von Achane vs. Ollie Gordon, Jahmyr Gibbs vs. David Montgomery, and more
Paul Charchian pits three sets of backfield teammates against each other and asks: which do you want at their ADP?
Note: This column originally appeared in our FREE Guillotine Newsletter. Sign up for it here!
In today's roiling socio-political landscape, it's easy to villainize people who don't share our viewpoints—even friends and family. We create inter-family civil wars, pitting brother against brother. Families get fractured into two camps, and Thanksgiving turns into a yam-fueled fracas.
Perhaps the better way to solve these civil wars is to identify NFL teammates doing battle for our draft picks and choose a winner for our fantasy roster.
These are all good players, playing the same position on the same team. I'm here to announce a winner.
Miami RBs De'Von Achane (Round 1, Pick 18) OR Ollie Gordon (Round 8, Pick 139)
Last year, Achane was an ideal Guillotine Leagues™ player. He played all 17 games, despite a long track record of injury. He caught 78 passes, making him a PPR gold mine. He got goal-line work, even though he wasn't good at it (more below). In Tua Tagovailoa's full games, Achane never fell below 10 PPR points.
But can all those things possibly happen again? That's lightning-in-a-bottle stuff.
Achane is already nursing a calf injury. He plans to play in Week 1, but calf injuries are highly prone to aggravation. And as you know, he missed big chunks of 2023 with a variety of injuries.
And, when Tua didn't play full games, Achane was dreadful, averaging just eight PPR points per game.
Gordon appears to have usurped Miami's goal-line job. In Miami's first preseason game, the first-team offense happened to get the ball at the opposition's two-yard line. Mike McDaniel benched Achane, choosing to run Jaylen Wright four times.
Achane converted just 21% of his inside-the-five carries into touchdowns last year, one of the worst metrics in the league. He's simply not built for short-yardage work.
Who is? Ollie Gordon. 6-foot-1, 226 pounds. And he absolutely mowed down third-string opponents in the preseason.
Remember, we're just one year removed from Raheem Mostert leading the league in rushing touchdowns. That role could go to Gordon this year.
Victor: Ollie Gordon.
Detroit RBs Jahmyr Gibbs (Pick 4, Round 1) OR David Montgomery (Pick 66, Round 4)
Both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery can be very massively helpful for your Guillotine roster. But who's the better value at his respective ADP?
With Gibbs going so high, at his draft position, you've got nearly every NFL player at your disposal, including seeming locks like Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ashton Jeanty, Nico Collins and Malik Nabers.
That's not nearly the case where Montgomery is being selected. Montgomery's ADP peers all have sizable question marks. Will Jordan Mason gobble up all of Aaron Jones' (ADP 65) touchdown opportunities? Will Travis Hunter (ADP 64) stay healthy playing both ways? Will Rome Odunze (ADP 71) make a sophomore surge while Caleb Williams learns a new system?
Montgomery has no question marks. We know his role and his dependability—a critical trait in Guillotine Leagues™.
If I told you Montgomery would lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns this coming season, would you be surprised? No.
Over the past two seasons, the Lions rank No. 1 in rushing attempts from inside the five-yard line. That’s not going to change with the loss of Ben Johnson. Running at the stripe is built into Dan Campbell's DNA.
In Monty's 15 games last year, including playoffs, he finished as RB19 or better 12 times. That's bankable consistency that Guillotine players love.
Victor: David Montgomery
Washington RBs Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Pick 81, Round 5) vs. Austin Ekeler (Pick 107, Round 7) vs. Chris Rodriquez (Pick 150, Round 9)
This unique three-way battle is very different in Guillotine Leagues™ than any other way you might play.
The upside play, clearly, is Jacory Croskey-Merritt, the preseason's single biggest mover, jumping up almost 80 picks from Aug. 1 to Sept. 1. He's Washington's presumed, but unannounced, Week 1 starter. He's probably better than Brian Robinson, which, granted, isn't saying a lot. And might be really good.
But at Pick 81, Croskey-Merritt's ADP cost has grown so high, in order to make good on his cost, he's got to start immediately, get most of the carries and score the Commanders' rushing touchdowns. It might work out exactly that way in Week 1. Or Week 8. Or never.
Chris Rodriguez has jumped in value as well, but his Round 9 price point is dramatically less than Bill's or Ekeler's. So, if Rodriguez fails, he'll be less painful than the others. The third-year player has averaged an impressive 4.8 and 4.9 yards per carry, respectively. Among runners with his 35 carries—granted a very small sample size, he led all backs with a 40% avoided tackle rate last year.
Austin Ekeler is the safe pick, a priority in Guillotine Leagues™. Ekeler brings PPR safety to a position that has a lot of built-in variance. Last year, Ekeler was the Commanders' passing-down back, finding himself on the field for 77% of the team's long down-and-distance plays.
Before succumbing to injury in Week 12, that role netted Ekeler double-digit fantasy points in eight of 10 games, and only one real dud game. Ekeler isn't explosive, but with 3-4 catches per game, his PPR floor is uber solid.
Last year, Ekeler was my most-rostered player, and he helped keep me alive in September and October because of his weekly high floor. Eventually, in November, I swapped him out for guys with more upside, but that's a good problem to have.
Victor: Austin Ekeler.
