Guillotine Leagues™ Risk Profiles For Week 1: Start Romeo Doubs, Sit Keenan Allen

Survive and advance. It’s the unofficial motto of the NCAA tournament, and it applies to Guillotine Leagues™ as well. You can’t win your Guillotine League in the first week, but you can certainly lose it.

Just last year, I had the unfortunate designation of being the first player chopped in the Fantasy Life company-wide Guillotine League. Fortunately, I can rest easy knowing that there was nothing I could really do about it. My first two picks were Drake London and Chris Olave, and they combined for four catches, 29 yards, and zero scores. I was never benching either of those players, and the rest of my roster was unable to make up the difference.

That said, other situations are completely avoidable. There are plenty of fringe starter decisions on the table in Week 1 that can potentially result in your team being chopped or successfully making it to the next round. That’s what this piece is going to focus on.

Let’s take a look at a few players who were routinely being drafted in Guillotine Leagues as starters who might not be worth starting in Week 1. Additionally, let’s take a look at a few different players who were likely selected as reserves who could justify a starting spot for one reason or another.

Risk Profiles For Guillotine Leagues™ - Players To Start And Sit

Sit: Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs. Giants

This is a tricky one. On one hand, Croskey-Merritt’s stock is clearly pointing up. The team felt confident enough in their depth at running back to ultimately trade last year’s starter to the 49ers. With Brian Robinson now out of the picture, the coast is clear for someone new to assume the majority of the carries.

The Commanders also draw a favorable Week 1 matchup vs. the Giants. They’re currently listed as six-point home favorites, which makes them the fourth-largest favorites of the week. Favorites tend to perform better at the running back position than underdogs because winning game scripts tend to lead to more opportunities. If the Commanders can hold serve vs. the Giants, there’s a chance that someone is getting fed in the fourth quarter to try to put the game away.

The only real issue is that we’re not entirely sure if Croskey-Merritt is going to be that guy yet. He’s being drafted as the team’s unquestioned top back, with his ADP skyrocketing into the top-100 overall over the past few weeks. However, he still has plenty of competition for touches. Austin Ekeler is there to handle most of the pass-catching responsibilities, while the team has also talked up Chris Rodriguez all offseason. Rodriguez is a bigger running back, so it’s possible that he handles the goal-line responsibilities.

All that leaves Croskey-Merritt with a very uncertain workload vs. the Giants. Even if he gets around 50% of the carries, that doesn’t mean much if he gets minimal pass-catching and short-yardage opportunities.

Ultimately, the floor here is pretty minimal, and floor performances are what get you chopped in Week 1. You may not be in a position where you can afford to bench him if you paid an increased price tag for him in a later draft, but there’s plenty of reason to consider doing so.

Start: Ollie Gordon at Colts

Gordon is another rookie who has risen up draft boards heading into the start of the season. However, it’s much easier to see a path to relevance for him in Week 1. Jaylen Wright is expected to miss multiple weeks after having a procedure done on his lower leg, leaving only De’Von Achane above Gordon on the team’s depth chart. Achane is also far from 100% at the moment, currently dealing with a calf injury. He returned to practice this week and is tentatively expected to suit up on Sunday, but there’s no guarantee he handles his usual workload.

Even if Achane was at 100%, we’ve seen multiple players have success in this backfield in the past. Just two years ago, Achane and Raheem Mostert were both extremely productive players, with Mostert leading the league with 18 rushing touchdowns. Achane is more of a home-run hitter, so the Dolphins might prefer using a committee once again rather than making Achane a true bell cow back.

Gordon was an extremely productive college running back, and the only reason he fell to the sixth round of the 2025 Draft was the depth of the position and some poor athletic testing measurables. However, those measurables didn’t stop Gordon from leading the entire FBS with 1,732 yards in his sophomore season. He also has the prototypical size to handle goal-line carries in the NFL, which is not one of Achane’s strengths.

Ultimately, Gordon should handle a solid chunk of carries in his first professional game, and he has the potential for much more if Achane is more hurt than expected. It’s enough to make him a viable flex option in deeper Guillotine Leagues.

Sit: Keenan Allen vs. Chiefs

Allen was an extremely productive player down the stretch for the Bears last season. Over a five-game stretch from Week 12 through 16, Allen averaged 6.4 receptions and 82.4 receiving yards with five total touchdowns. Ultimately, it appears as though he’s still got some gas left in the tank.

However, Allen changed teams once again this offseason, going back to where things started with the Chargers. As far as landing spots go, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. From an opportunity standpoint, Allen should at least be on the field for a decent chunk of the game. The Chargers don’t exactly have a plethora of pass-catching options, so Allen should help in that department.

That said, Allen is going to have to take on a bit of a different role than we’ve seen in the past. Ladd McConkey has the slot targets for the team pretty much locked up, and he was a sneaky target hog last season. He had a 26% target share overall, and that figure only increased as the year progressed.

With McConkey in the slot, Allen is going to have to do most of his damage out wide. That was never a huge part of his game to begin with, and it’s a scary proposition for a player on the backside of his career. Allen just recently turned 33 years old, which is pretty ancient by NFL standards.

Ultimately, I’d rather be a bit too early on fading Allen than a bit too late. If McConkey continues to dominate the opportunities for a run-heavy offense, it might not leave as much as expected for Allen.

Start: Romeo Doubs vs. Lions

While the first three guys on this list could definitely have been drafted as starters, Doubs was definitely drafted as a reserve. There’s even a chance he wasn’t even drafted at all, with his ADP across the industry in the 200s.

However, Doubs could find himself as one of Jordan Love’s top options in the first game of the season. Christian Watson is currently sidelined with an injury (shocking, I know), while Jayden Reed is recovering from a Jones fracture. He told reporters that his status for Week 1 is uncertain, so it’s very possible that the Packers exercise some caution with him to start the year.

That leaves only rookie Matthew Golden ahead of Doubs on the team’s depth chart. Those two receivers started in the team’s last preseason contest, and they could handle the majority of the opportunities at the position vs. the Lions. While Golden has generated plenty of buzz as a sleeper, no one is paying attention to Doubs as a starter in what could be the highest-scoring game of the week. It currently has a total of 47.5, which is tied for the second-highest on the slate. Only Ravens-Bills is higher, so it’s a great spot to potentially look for some unexpected value.

Ultimately, if you have a shaky flex starter heading into Week 1, starting Doubs makes a ton of sense if Reed is ultimately ruled out.