Guillotine Leagues™ Strategy For Week 10: Can You Bench DK Metcalf?

We’ve officially reached the halfway point of the NFL season. There are just nine weeks of action left, and we’re down to just eight weeks in standard Guillotine Leagues. That means that teams are getting stronger across the board, so start/sit decisions are getting tougher. Guys who were no-doubt starters during the first month of the season will need to be scrutinized a bit further moving forward.

One bad performance can be the end of your season. Just look at Patrick Mahomes last week. He entered Week 9 as the No. 1 QB in fantasy points per game, but one subpar showing led to a mass exodus of Mahomes-led teams in Guillotine Leagues™️. He had a chop rate north of 20% in Week 9, while guys like Rome Odunze (19.4%) and Jahmyr Gibbs (18.6%) weren’t far behind.

That said, one bad start from one of your stars doesn’t have to be the end. If you can make solid decisions with the rest of your lineup, you have the potential to survive the executioner's blade.

That’s the purpose of this article. Each week, I’ll highlight a few players who stand out as risky starts in Guillotine Leagues™️. I’ll also pick a few alternates a bit further down the rankings who provide a bit more safety. Finally, Guillotine Leagues founder and guru Paul Charchian will weigh in with a few thoughts of his own.

Let’s dive in!

Week 10 Guillotine Leagues™ Strategy

Sit: Breece Hall vs. Browns

There’s waving the white flag, and then there’s what the Jets did before Tuesday’s trade deadline. While trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams might be solid long-term moves for the franchise, it undoubtedly makes them a worse team this year. It has to be hard for the remaining players in the locker room to be motivated for the rest of the season when they know that management is actively trying to lose games.

Hall was somewhat surprisingly not traded before the deadline, but it’s possible that he’s not the team’s clear bell cow back moving forward. He’s coming off his best game of the season from a fantasy perspective in Week 8, finishing with 32.9 PPR points in a comeback win vs. the Bengals, but his underlying utilization wasn’t ideal. He handled just 58% of the team’s rushing attempts and saw just 7% of the targets.

His production came primarily from a ridiculously good matchup. The Bengals’ defense has been historically bad, and Hall averaged 7.0 yards per attempt with 2 touchdowns. The Jets offense as a whole had more than 500 yards and 39 points, both of which stand out as major outliers.

This week’s matchup is the exact opposite. The Browns have been absolutely elite against the run this season. They’re second in the league in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the second-fewest PPR points per game to the position. If Hall isn’t going to get a bell cow workload in this contest, he probably won’t have the elite efficiency to fall back on. Before Hall’s eruption vs. the Bengals, he had just 7.2 and 5.9 PPR points in his previous two weeks. That’s the type of production that gets you chopped at this point in the season. I’d rather look elsewhere if possible.

Charch says: I expect the Jets to use Hall more prodigiously–after all, he’s declared his intent to leave after this season, so they may as well grind him up. But even with extra volume, it’s a brutal matchup for Hall against one of the three best run defenses, as LaMarca correctly indicated. By Week 10 in a Guillotine League, you have to be careful to monitor downside, and any runner against the Browns is a threat to dud.

Start: Kyle Monangai vs. Giants

This one feels a bit like a layup. Watching Kyle Monangai for the Bears in Week 9 made you wonder why he wasn’t playing more all season. He ran hard and efficiently, turning 26 carries into 176 yards. He also chipped in three catches and 22 yards as a receiver, bringing his total to 22.8 PPR points. While you don’t get a ton of kudos for shredding the Bengals, he undoubtedly looks like the Bears’ best running back.

It’s still TBD whether or not D’Andre Swift will be back in Week 10 after missing the last game, as he's questionable for the game. Swift has reportedly been battling this groin injury for a while, and the team held a tryout for four different running backs on Tuesday. That doesn’t exactly scream an imminent return for Swift. Even if he does come back this week, there’s no guarantee he doesn’t serve as Monangai’s backup.

The matchup vs. the Giants is also phenomenal. New York ranks dead last in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the second-most PPR points to opposing runners. Monangai is an absolute lock if Swift is out once again, and he has some flex viability even if the Bears’ “starter” returns.

Charch says: No argument here. I’ve been talking about Monangai’s upside all year, and it was gratifying to see his production as the lone starter last week. Long term, I expect a 1-2 punch with Monangai and Swift. But for this particular game, Monangai looks like a very safe play, even if Swift tries to play. Remember, groin injuries aggravate easily.

Sit: DK Metcalf at Chargers

I don’t know how Mike Tomlin does it. Every year this team outperforms its underlying metrics, and they’re on pace to finish at or above .500 for the 22nd straight year. Last week’s win over the Colts was the type of thing that only seems to happen to the Steelers. It was the second game this season where they forced at least five turnovers, which allowed them to pull off a narrow upset.

Tomlin and company have been able to squeeze some juice out of Aaron Rodgers’ right arm, but they’re doing it in a specific manner. They’re getting the ball out of his hands as quickly as humanly possible. Only Tua Tagovailoa has averaged less time to throw this season, and no QB has averaged fewer intended air yards.

That makes Rodgers a very interesting stylistic fit with DK Metcalf. He is a physical specimen who does his best work downfield. His career Average Depth of Target (aDOT) was at 12.7 yards across his first five seasons, but it’s at just 9.9 in his first year in Pittsburgh.

Metcalf also isn’t getting as many opportunities as in years past. That’s been particularly true of late. He has just a 17% target share over his past three outings, and he’s finished with 8.0 and 2.6 PPR points in two of them. Metcalf salvaged his fantasy production by scoring a TD in the third, but he still had a pretty pedestrian 7 targets, 5 catches and 55 yards in that contest.

Ultimately, if Metcalf doesn’t find the paint vs. the Chargers, it’s not too difficult to envision single-digit fantasy points. The Chargers have allowed just 0.4 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing receivers, so his odds of scoring are far less than usual.

Charch says: DK Metcalf’s lack of consistent production is baffling. In past years, Rodgers locked onto his favorite go-to receivers, notably Davante Adams. But this year, Metcalf is 39th in targets! Not cool, Aaron. I assume much of the blame goes to Arthur Smith, who loves nothing more than to send a dozen targets to his tight ends … For 4 yards a pop. Metcalf has become incredibly touchdown dependent, and as LaMarca mentioned, this isn’t a great matchup for scoring opportunities.

Start: Romeo Doubs vs. Eagles

I wrote about Doubs in our Guillotine Rankings article earlier this week, and I have zero qualms about starting him vs. the Eagles. The Eagles haven’t been nearly as intimidating on defense this year as they were in 2024-25, ranking 12th in pass defense EPA. They’ve done that despite facing an easy string of opposing offenses of late, including two matchups vs. Jaxson Dart and one vs. a banged-up Carson Wentz. The Packers will represent a clear step up in weight class.

Of course, the big selling point for Doubs is the potential opportunities. The Packers continue to see pass catchers fall by the wayside. Tucker Kraft went down with a season-ending injury last week, while Jayden Reed has yet to return to practice after landing on IR in Week 3. Matthew Golden also picked up a minor injury in their last game, while Dontayvion Wicks has missed their past two contests. It leaves Doubs as the clear No. 1 pass-game option in a solid Packers’ offense.

Doubs has had a very healthy 26% target share over his past five outings, and most of that has come with the team significantly healthier than they are right now. He’s averaged 15.8 PPR points per game during that stretch, and he’s had at least 9.8 PPR points in each outing. Doubs won’t be viable forever, but he’s definitely still usable for at least the next few weeks.

Charch says: There’s been too much agreement in this week’s article, so in order to part ways with LaMarca, I’ll highlight the error of his ways on Doubs’ outlook, both in this game and going forward. Yes, he’s the safest of the Packers receivers, but that’s not saying much. The Green Bay receiver room is a five-man clusterboink that’s only going to get worse when Reed comes back. Specific to this matchup, the Eagles have two very good cornerbacks, Quinyon Mitchell (PFF CB34) and Cooper DeJean (PFF CB4). Maybe he’ll line up against Adoree Jackson (PFF CB109) sometimes, but Doubs runs only 42% of his routes on Jackson’s side of the ball.