Guillotine Leagues™ Strategy For Week 8: Trust Brashard Smith and Tez Johnson

Week 8 feels like a bit of a turning point for Guillotine Leagues™. We’ve already lost a handful of teams, so rosters are generally getting deeper across the board.

However, Week 8 is the dreaded “Bye Week Apocalypse." Six different teams will be on bye: the Lions, Cardinals, Seahawks, Rams, Raiders, and Jaguars. That means a handful of guys who have been every-week starts this season (Jahmyr Gibbs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Trey McBride, just to name a few) are going to be out of action.

If you can get past this week, the finish line starts to come into sight. There’s still a way to go, but bye weeks will become easier and easier to fill as the season progresses. This week might be the last real hurdle in terms of finding viable replacement targets on the wire.

In addition to the bye weeks, there are also a few questionable starters that deserve benching consideration. That’s the focus of this piece each week. We’re going to highlight a few players who carry risk in Guillotine Leagues™ and highlight a few potential alternatives. These guys might be a few spots lower in our collective Week 8 rankings, but what they lack in upside they make up for in safety. Guillotine Leagues™ founder and guru Paul Charchian will also weigh in with his thoughts on my selections.

Let’s dive in!

Week 8 Strategy For Guillotine Leagues™

Sit: Rico Dowdle vs. Bills

Dowdle has been a legit week-winner for fantasy players of late. He was the No. 1 scorer at RB in Week 5, and he was No. 2 at the position in Week 6.

However, both of those games came with Chuba Hubbard out of the lineup. Hubbard returned to action in Week 7, and the two RBs split the workload pretty evenly vs. the Jets. Hubbard had a slight edge from a snap standpoint, and he played in most pass-catching situations. Dowdle had a slight edge in terms of carries, and he appears to be the team’s preferred short-yardage option.

Dowdle just barely managed to crack the double-digit PPR threshold in Week 7 vs. the Jets, but that was in a game that the Panthers were in control of throughout. He turned his 54% carry share into 17 carries, and he responded with 79 rushing yards.

What happens to Dowdle’s prospects when the Panthers run into a more negative game script? 54% of the carries could be much closer to single digits, and he doesn’t have the pass-catching work to fall back on.

That could be the case for him in Week 8. He’s taking on the Bills, and the Panthers are listed as sizable home underdogs in that contest. Buffalo has dropped two straight games, but they’re coming off a bye in Week 7. That sets up a scenario where they’re healthy, rested, and motivated to take care of business in Carolina.

Maybe this game stays closer than expected, but trusting Dowdle in this spot feels like a recipe for disaster.

Charch says: Matt’s use of “disaster” feels a tad strong. Non-No.1 running backs (Ollie Gordon, Kendre Miller, Tyler Allgeier) have scored in three of the last four games against the Bills. So even if Hubbard continues to be the “starter”, we’ve seen depth runners have success. The Bills are a weird run defense, ranking 18th in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate. But they’re also giving up the second-most yards before contact, 1.8, which could help Dowdle find his way to some easy yards. And they’re fourth-worst in run defense success rate. I think Dowdle remains flex-worthy.

Start: Brashard Smith vs. Commanders

This is definitely an aggressive call. In fact, I’m sure that Charch is going to tell you all that Smith is not a good start, below in italicized text. Smith’s been a role player for most of the season, and the Chiefs lead the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation. That doesn’t exactly scream “safe” at the running back position.

Still, Smith is coming off his most extensive workload last week vs. the Raiders. He saw 36% of the team’s snaps and 41% of their carries, and he responded with a season-high 13.1 PPR points.

That increased workload probably stems from the game turning into a blowout, but Smith’s work in the passing game has been pretty consistent. He’s earned at least four targets in three of the past four games, and he’s caught at least three passes in four straight. If he can continue to get to that threshold, he doesn’t need to do much on the ground to be a viable fantasy asset in a week with six teams on bye.

The Chiefs’ rushing attack hasn’t been particularly strong this season, so there are also opportunities for Smith to get more involved in that department. Specifically, Kareem Hunt has seen his utilization plummet in recent weeks, so it’s possible that this is a two-man committee with Smith and Isiah Pacheco moving forward.

The Chiefs also draw another solid matchup this week vs. the Commanders. They’ve allowed at least 128 rushing yards in five of their past six games, and the Cowboys hung 44 points on the scoreboard against them. They’re 27th in yards per game and 22nd in points per game allowed for the year, so the Chiefs should be able to keep their positive momentum rolling.

Charch Says: I think Matt’s baiting me a bit, but I’ll weigh in on Smith, who has become an intriguing option for Andy Reid. First, let’s give some kudos to Pacheco, who looks like a new man. His last two games were his best of the season. Pacheco has earned extra playing time, particularly if Hunt isn’t fully recovered from the leg injury he suffered last week. But at the same time, Smith needs a bigger role in the Chiefs' offense. He’s the only runner with NFL-caliber hands, and his five receptions last week are hopefully the first of many flex-worthy PPR games. For what it’s worth, the Commanders have allowed explosive receiving games to Bijan Robinson and D’Andre Swift, but obviously, those guys get far more playing time than Smith.

Sit: Kayshon Boutte vs. Browns

There is definitely optimism about what the Patriots are currently building. Drake Maye looks like the real deal at quarterback, and his confidence continues to grow on a weekly basis. They currently lead the AFC East at 5-2, and they now appear likely to make the postseason.

Boutte is coming off back-to-back solid performances, so you might be tempted to get him in your starting lineup. That feels like a mistake. Nearly all of his production has come from touchdowns, which gives Boutte a pretty steep floor.

With Stefon Diggs back to looking like a legit No. 1 receiver, there simply aren’t a ton of targets for the rest of the receivers in New England. Boutte has three targets or fewer in five of his past six outings, including just two last week vs. the Titans. That’s fine in weeks where he finds the paint, but it’s a great way to find the executioner's blade in weeks where he doesn’t. In his last three games without a touchdown, he’s finished as WR56, WR89, and WR71.

Additionally, Boutte is going to have to navigate a tough matchup vs. the Browns in Week 8. While Cleveland hasn’t been quite as dominant against the pass as they have against the run, they’re still eighth in pass defense EPA. They’ve allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing receivers, so I’d look elsewhere at the position.

Charch says: I’m the founder of the Kayshon Boutte fan club, but yeah, this is a tough spot to trust Boutte when a dud game can end your Guillotine season. In every game but one, Boutte has led the team in snaps and routes run, so he's on the field enough to make him tantalizing. After all, we all want a part of a Drake Maye offense. But Boutte’s getting just a 13% target rate, and that creates a lot of downside for Boutte. He’s far more startable in future games.

Start: Tez Johnson at Saints

I’m all in on the Tez Dispenser. We might need to work on a better nickname.

Johnson has posted back-to-back excellent showings for the Buccaneers, including 15.8 PPR points in Week 7 vs. the Lions. That was a game where Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka were both active, though Evans did leave the game with an injury. Johnson ultimately finished with a 74% route participation and 15% target share, and those types of numbers feel sustainable.

Evans is now expected to miss the rest of the season, while Chris Godwin is still not practicing. Jalen McMillan also still has no timetable for his return, so the Tampa Bay receiver room suddenly feels pretty thin.

Johnson has displayed strong chemistry with Baker Mayfield, who was playing at an MVP-level prior to last week. Maybe we can’t lean on Johnson as a starter for long, but I’m more than willing to take a chance on him vs. the Saints in Week 8.

Charch Says: For the record, I like “Tez Dispenser”. If you saw his touchdown last week, you know the kid’s got game. For a wispy-thin player, Tez plays with big-man tenacity and effort. For the near future, with Evans, McMillan and Godwin out, Tez is simply too important to the Bucs offense to be ignored by Mayfield. The Saints secondary is shockingly competent—no receiver has hit 100 yards all year—but in a six-team bye week, Tez is startable in Guillotine Leagues™.

Players Mentioned in this Article

RicoDowdle
RBCAR
PPG
6.37
BrashardSmith
RBKC
PPG
2.43
KayshonBoutte
WRNE
PPG
7.00
Proj
7.09
TezJohnson
WRTB
PPG
4.42