Guillotine Leagues™️ Week 5 Bidding Advice: Careful Spending On Lamar Jackson or David Montgomery

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding.

I spent much of the offseason urging Guillotine League™ drafters to avoid rookies because of their historically inconsistent starts to their careers—even for eventual Hall of Fame-level players.

This year, almost every rookie has been somewhere between invisible (Colston Loveland, Tre Harris, Isaac TeSlaa), bad (Kaleb Johnson) or very inconsistent (Jacory Croskey-Merritt ).

The only two rookies who've been dependable in all four games are Emeka Egbuka and Tyler Warren. Egbuka has scored or topped 85 yards in every game. Warren has topped seven catches and 70 yards in three of four games.

Overwhelmingly, avoiding rookies was a great draft-day game plan. But now, as we enter October, we're seeing rookies start to get entrenched into roles that can make them reliable Guillotine starters.

October is when many rookies make their move into consistent production. Here are some October examples from last year:

Tyrone Tracy went from averaging three rushes in September to 15 rushes in October.
Brian Thomas averaged 75 receiving yards and scored touchdowns in three of four October games.
Bucky Irving scored in three of four games between Weeks 4-7.
Jayden Daniels, already a good runner, saw his passing output jump from 224 yards per game to 278.

Guillotine Leagues™ Waiver Wire Bidding Advice Before Week 5

Running back is the least complicated position for rookies to assimilate and we're starting to see the youngsters make an impact.

Cam Skattebo had already beaten out Tracy before his shoulder injury sidelined him, and he's not looking back. Last week with Tracy out, Skattebo posted career highs in pretty much every rushing category. And even when Tracy returns, it looks like Skattebo will be the alpha runner in New York.
Quinshon Judkins took command of the Browns backfield in a matter of two weeks. The past two games, he's rushed 29 times and chipped in five receptions. He's decimated the fantasy value of Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford, who are barely on the field. Monday's trade for tackle Cam Robinson could pay immediate dividends for Judkins and the Browns.
With Najee Harris out, Omarion Hampton has surged into a dominating role for the Chargers. Last Sunday, he got 100% of the carries. Extra promising, Hampton has seen 11 targets the past two games. The Chargers offensive line is a wreck with injuries, which will add some variance into Hampton's output. But with Hampton's extraordinary volume level, he should be a safe Guillotine starter most weeks.
We finally got the breakout game we were hoping for with Ashton Jeanty. His three touchdowns were great, but his 11 (!) avoided tackles (per TruMedia) really stands out. Granted, Jeanty's big game came against Chicago, arguably the league's worst run defense. But his performance was a mandate for continued high-volume usage.
We urged you to pick up Woody Marks last week, and hopefully you did it, since his price will skyrocket after Sunday's heavy (and successful) usage. With 21 touches and 119 total yards, Marks looks like Houston's new lead back. At worst, Marks will be in a timeshare with Nick Chubb, who'll also likely retain goal-line work. He's got a shockingly favorable matchup in Baltimore this week, before going on bye the next week.

Also, be sure to listen to the CHOP Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decision.

Self-Evaluation

Over the course of this story, you'll see a lot of specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months.

Broad Bidding Strategies

There’s no single way to win a Guillotine League. But I can safely say, the clearest path to a Guillotine League championship is to survive until mid-season and have a lot of FAAB left. In short, save your FAAB. Except for the truly desperate, your goal is to conserve cash.

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

Elite players: These are guys who’ll be on your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Max your bidding on elite players at $200. No more, unless you’re already truly desperate. Remember, you're going to need eight "end-game" level players. Even if you drafted a couple end-game players, you can't pay $400 for six more.
Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another month or so. $10-$20. Be careful here. Throwing down $40 twice a week will drain your funds in short order, and most of these guys won't turn into end-game players.
Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $0-$5.

The 10 Most Chopped Players in Week 4

I'll note that I've removed Malik Nabers from the list since he won't be playing again, sadly. If you're curious, he was the fifth-most chopped player.

10. DET TE Sam LaPorta (10.7% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 63/100… shockingly low!
Upcoming schedule: @CIN; @KC; TB
Last week's median price: $66
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $25
Charch says: In a bad year for tight ends, LaPorta ranks 16th in tight end PPR scoring. That's seemingly impossible considering the Lions have rolled up 52, 38 and 34 points the last three weeks. But it highlights the danger with almost every Detroit player: There's so many great Lions, sometimes your guy doesn't get the ball. LaPorta has seen exactly (and only) four targets in three straight games.

9. PHI WR DeVonta Smith (11.7% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 59/100
Upcoming schedule: DEN; @NYG; @MIN
Last week's median price: $89
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $35
Charch says: Incredibly, the Eagles won last week's game without completing a pass in the second half, something that's only happened one other time. While that's not going to happen again, it's endemic of the Eagles' run-heavy philosophy. Philly ranks dead last in pass attempts, just 25 per game, and last in pass-play percentage. Two of Smith's next three games are potentially very difficult, against Denver and Minnesota. In fantasy points allowed to wideouts, they rank No. 7 and No. 1, respectively.

8. DAL WR CeeDee Lamb (11.8% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 70/100
Upcoming schedule: @NYJ; @CAR; WAS
Last week's median price: $97
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $30
Charch says: With his nasty high-ankle sprain, Lamb is likely to miss at least two more games and possibly much longer. In Guillotine Leagues, we can't afford to roster many players who miss a month. But because he's awesome, Lamb is the exception. So I'll bid $30 and hope I'm alive when he's healthy enough to return at 90% of his pre-injury self.

7. CIN WR Ja'Marr Chase (13.3% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 78/100
Upcoming schedule: DET; @GB; PIT
Last week's median price: $333
End-game player: YES?
Charch's recommended bid amount: $85
Charch says: This is thorny. Obviously, Chase can be fantastic. But the Bengals' brutally bad offensive line is making it almost impossible for the passing game to succeed. Cincinnati ranks 32nd in ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate and 28th in PFF's pass-blocking rankings. Chase has failed to top 50 yards in three of four games. Chase has one end zone target on the season. I don't like the Lambeau Field game coming up in two weeks.

6. LAC WR Ladd McConkey (14.2% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 55/100
Upcoming schedule: WAS; @MIA; IND
Last week's median price: $150
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $10
Charch says: I can't believe it's come to this for Ladd McConkey. I'm only recommending a $10 bid because of LA's three-way timeshare and the destruction of its offensive line. Injuries to Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt and Mekhi Becton unraveled the Chargers offense last week. McConkey has seen declining receptions and yards in all four games. McConkey remains a good player and I'm sure he'll post good games; but it'll be very tough to predict when those are coming.

5. BAL RB Derrick Henry (14.6% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 57/100
Upcoming schedule: HOU; LAR; BYE
Last week's median price: $357
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $110
Charch says: Through four weeks, Derrick Henry has appeared on this list three times! His fumbling is a concern, three in four weeks, but the bigger issue is his touchdown dependency. Because he doesn't catch, you need him to score. Or run for 100ish yards. The Ravens defense is so bad/injured, the running game is getting nullified in the second half of some games. And Henry doesn't play on most passing downs; that's Justice Hill. Is there a place for him on my roster? Heck, yeah. But will I pay a premium for the right to fret over his touchdown depenency? No.

4. PHI WR A.J. Brown (16.3% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 62/100
Upcoming schedule: DEN; @NYG; @MIN
Last week's median price: $151
End-game player: YES, I hope
Charch's recommended bid amount: $50
Charch says: Like Henry above, this is Brown's third appearance on this list in four games. And his three bad games have been brutal: WR100, WR69 and WR97. Weirdly, he's getting enough targets to be successful: 8, 10 and 8 the last three games. That kind of volume normally puts him in good games. He's a very good player on a good offense, so it's likely that he bounces back.

3. PIT RB Jaylen Warren (16.5% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 78/100
Upcoming schedule: BYE; CLE; @CIN
Last week's median price: $121
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $20
Charch says: There are two things holding me back from bidding a meaningful amount on Jaylen Warren. First, his schedule, which has a bye this week, and a brutal matchup against Cleveland the following week. Cleveland ranks No. 1 in yards per carry allowed, a miniscule 2.7. And a difficult game against Green Bay looms in four weeks. The second issue is Kenneth Gainwell, who looks terrific to my eyes. My crystal ball shows Arthur Smith ushering in a frustrating two-headed backfield, much like last year with Najee Harris.

2. DET RB David Montgomery (18% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 49/100
Upcoming schedule: @CIN; @KC; TB
Last week's median price: $102, coming off his monstrous game in Baltimore
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $30
Charch says: Montgomery is the epitome of an all-or-nothing fantasy producer, who's particularly lethal in Guillotine Leagues when you start him in the wrong week. Obviously, Cleveland was the wrong week. CHOP Podcast listeners heard our warnings about Montgomery last Thursday, but he was very difficult to bench coming off his epic game in Baltimore the week before. When Monty scores, you're fine. Going back two seasons, when he doesn't score, Montgomery averages just 37 rushing yards and 21 receiving yards.

1. BAL QB Lamar Jackson (18.9% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming schedule: HOU; LAR; BYE
Last week's median price: $372
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $35
Charch says: It's a uniquely tricky time to acquire Lamar Jackson. He's got a hamstring injury, and if you take his rushing off the table, he's Sam Darnold, a capable, but not special, fantasy producer. Early reports are expecting him to miss 2-3 weeks, which would at the earliest put him out until after the Ravens’ Week 7 bye. If you add Jackson now, you're doing so for Week 8 and beyond, something you only do with elite players. He’s definitely elite.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider them for Guillotine usage. They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

It's a rare week with a ton of running back prospects who you can acquire. Hopefully you heeded last week's advice on Woody Marks, because he's likely gone at this point.

NYG QB Jaxson Dart—Charch recommends $5
Dart was probably picked up last week, but in case he wasn't, you should feel heartened by what we saw on Sunday. Specifically, his 10 (!) designed runs. Like most rookies, he's going to have inconsistent passing production early in his career, especially without Malik Nabers. But, his rushing could/should even out those boxscores and provide serious upside. His bye isn't until Week 14, which means he'll be an option to help you through bye weeks.

TEN RB Tyjae Spears—Charch recommends $5
This happened in one of my Guillotine Leagues: Spears was drafted by someone, but that team got chopped at some point in September—honestly I don't know when. But because Spears doesn't have any stats, his name didn't go to the top of any stat lists, and people just missed him. and he was available for the taking. He walks into a timeshare, but he's got fresh legs and that will be evident later in the season.

CHI RB Kyle Monangai—Charch recommends $1
D'Andre Swift continues to look completely pedestrian, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry. He's found his way to scores in two of four games, which has masked his otherwise mundane results. But Ben Johnson knows Swift ain't "The Guy." In limited action, Kyle Monangai hasn't looked much better, but change could be coming to Chicago.

ARI RB Emari Demercado—Charch recommends $10
Demercado is on the open market (that's for you, Jorge!) and you should pick him up, both as a handcuff to Trey Benson, but also as a plausible emergency PPR helper. Benson can catch, but he's not as fluid as Demercado, who has natural hands. Demercado ran 17 routes last week, only five fewer than Benson. And Demercado crushed Benson on long down-and-distance usage, with 13 snaps, compared to Benson's 1. You're hoping for an Austin Ekeler-type role for Demercado.

BAL RB Justice Hill—Charch recommends $5
In all probability, Derrick Henry is going to be fine, and we'll see him rumbling through would-be tacklers next weekend. But in this moment of time, Henry has fumbled in three of four games and failed to top 50 yards in three straight. In the league's first bye week, Hill is a semi-viable emergency starter with 10-point PPR expectations against Houston. The Ravens defense is so battered, late-game scripts are favoring Hill over Henry. Hill has seen increasing targets in all four games.

NO RB Kendre Miller—Charch recommends $40
Kendre Miller just played his best NFL game by a mile, and it could kickstart a chain of events that leaves Miller as the Saints lead runner. For a guy who's never distinguished himself, he was the Saints best runner last Sunday, looking shockingly slippery—better than his box score (11-65-1) suggests. Per Next Gen Stats, he broke 5 tackles! I didn't physically rub my eyes in disbelief, but metaphorically I did. His impressive play could trigger the Saints to trade Alvin Kamara (hello, KC!), which would put Miller into a lead role.

CAR WR Jalen Coker—Charch recommends $1
Jalen Coker is eligible to come off IR (quad) this week, although this is on the early side of his original timetable. But the team could hasten his return due to injuries to David Moore and Xavier Legette. At full health, Coker should be the team's No. 2 receiving option, ahead of Hunter Renfrow. If Coker isn't ready yet, rookie Jimmy Horn Jr. will likely get an expanded role.

CLE WR Isaiah Bond—Charch recommends $0
Cedric Tillman has already been ruled out of next week's game with a hamstring injury, which should provide starter's minutes to rookie Isaiah Bond. He saw a team-high six targets last week, and posted career highs in receptions and yards. Coming up, it's a tough matchup with Minnesota this week, but Bond has more favorable matchups down the road against the Steelers, Dolphins and Patriots.

TB WR Chris Godwin—Charch recommends $3
I was shocked to see Chris Godwin get 10 targets in his first game back. Granted, he managed only 38 yards on those 10 targets, but with Mike Evans out, he could see similar usage next week. Anything close to 10-target workload should result in starter-worthy numbers. A word of caution, three of the Bucs' next four games are on the road, and then the Bucs go on bye.

NYG WRs Darius Slayton and Wan'Dale Robinson—Charch recommends $1 and $5, respectively
I'm already dreading talking about Malik Nabers next summer, since I'll be forced to discuss how dangerous it is to draft players coming off major knee surgery in Guillotine Leagues. But for the moment, it brings opportunity to the next men up in New York, Darius Slayton and Wan'Dale Robinson. As an outside receiver, Slayton will run more of Nabers' lost routes, which could put him in a position to find high-value targets. Robinson will be usable in spot situations against struggling slot cornerbacks. I'll note that the Giants have a brutal schedule for the next five games, including the Broncos and the Eagles twice.

MIA WR Malik Washington—Charch recommends $5
With Tyreek Hill's tragic (and hopefully not career-ending) knee injury, Malik Washington likely moves into a starter's role. He had already been getting 25-35 snaps per game before the injury. That number will increase. Washington has a lot of slot experience, which will help him walk into Hill's role. The Dolphins’ upcoming schedule isn't great, including a sneaky-tough game against Carolina this week. His next four opponents all rank top-10 in passing fantasy points allowed.

MIA TE Darren Waller—Charch recommends $5
Whaaa?! In his first game back from a year-long retirement, Waller scored twice, including a towering touchdown over Sauce Gardner on Monday night. Waller's size and athleticism makes him an ideal end zone target. But, before you overreact, know that Waller ran only 10 routes in his debut. Assuredly, that number will go up, but be aware that he could see high variance as he reacclimates to the NFL.