How Aggressively Should You Bid on Chopped Players in Guillotine Leagues?

Hey, it's Freedman.

I'm filling in on the Guillotine Leagues mailbag this week.

Let me tell you a little secret.

This piece—at least my version of it—isn't really a mailbag.

It's more of a miscellany: Freedman's random Guillotine League thoughts and how they might connect to what's happening right now in Week 5.

For more Week 5 content, check out my weekly rankings and my weekly projections as well as my Freedman's Favorites series (via my Fantasy Life author page).

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While most pieces here at Fantasy Life have a word limit—and this one definitely does—this piece also has a Freedman-imposed time limit.

I'm giving myself one hour to write it.

I don't care where I am in this article. I could be midsentence. Doesn't matter. When the alarm on my phone goes off, that's it. I'm done.

Would you believe me if I told you it took me 59 minutes to write that intro?

Yeah, my editors probably won't believe that either (Ed. Note: We do!).

So let's get into the piece.

Top 10 Most Chopped Players

Here are the top 10 most chopped players from last week (with their chop rates).

QB Lamar Jackson (Ravens): 18.9%
RB David Montgomery (Lions): 18.0%
RB Jaylen Warren (Steelers): 16.5%
WR A.J. Brown (Eagles): 16.3%
RB Derrick Henry (Ravens): 14.6%
WR Ladd McConkey (Chargers): 14.2%
WR Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals): 13.3%
WR CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys): 11.8%
WR DeVonta Smith (Eagles): 11.7%
TE Sam LaPorta (Lions): 10.7%

Of these guys, the four I most want to bid on are Warren, Brown, Henry, and McConkey.

Warren (knee) might be cheaper than he should be because he was a last-minute inactive last week and is on bye this week.

Brown is still one of the league's best WRs, and to win a championship I feel at the end of the season I need 3-4 WRs in the top eight, maybe top 12. Regardless of whether he's producing like that right now, Brown's one of those guys, and at the WR position, I want to bet on talent.

Henry has just 49 carries this year, but I expect more of the offense to flow through him moving forward with the injury to Jackson (hamstring). I want to be strategic but aggressive in pursuing him this week.

As for McConkey, he has significant target competition in WRs Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston—but just last year as a rookie he had 1,149 yards and seven TDs receiving as the No. 1 WR for his team. I expect him to bounce back as the season progresses.

New NFL Injuries

This Sunday and Monday, three big-name NFL skill-position players suffered notable in-game injuries.

QB Lamar Jackson (hamstring)
WR Malik Nabers (knee, IR)
WR Tyreek Hill (knee, IR)

I doubt Jackson plays this week, and soft-tissue injuries have a way of lingering throughout the season. I almost certainly won't place an aggressive bid on him until we've seen him return to action.

Nabers and Hill are both done for the year. In their respective offenses, Giants WRs Wan'Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton and Dolphins TE Darren Waller strike me as the guys who hit the sweet spot of "could see an increase in usage because of the injury" and "probably won't be too expensive to acquire."

Speaking of "expensive to acquire"…

Bid Aggression in Guillotine Leagues

Every Thursday, I'm on CHOP: The Guillotine Leagues Podcast with Paul Charchian and Thor Nystrom.

On the show, Charchian often talks about bid discipline and not spending too much early in the year to acquire players on waivers.

And I generally think he's right—but I also think it's possible that in some leagues people spend too much on guys in Tiers 2-3 and not enough in Tier 1.

To win your league, you need to assemble a super team.

One top-six QB
2-3 top-10 RBs
3-4 top-12 WRs
One top-four TE

That's 32 guys in the pool.

If a guy isn't in the Elite 32, he doesn't matter. You can bid on him as a stopgap if necessary, but you should be cognizant to conserve FAAB—so that when one of the Elite 32 is available, you have the ability to go heavy.

If one of those guys hits waivers early in the season—like Week 5—I don't see the point in not bidding aggressively. Get your guy.

Just be sure he's someone who actually will make a difference to your team.

Chasing Upside in Guillotine Leagues

On the Thursday show, we focus on flex-level players who carry outsized risk. In other words, the guys who might get you chopped.

And I think it makes sense on a weekly basis to focus on downside.

That said—I still think a ton of attention should be given to upside.

Big performances from a few guys can make up for poor performances across the rest of your lineup, especially early in the year when the chop line is relatively low.

And if you're going to win a championship at the end of the season, you'll need to have on your roster guys capable of putting up big numbers in any given week.

So as you're building your lineup each week, yes—be sure not to have too many guys with significant floors.

But as you're constructing your team and augmenting your roster week to week with a championship in mind, remember that the long-term chase for ceiling is probably more important than the short-term avoidance of floor.

The Most Important Piece of Guillotine Leagues Advice Ever

I've been saving this for the end of the piece. It's a doozy.

There's one thing that almost everyone gets wrong when it comes to Guillotine Leagues.

But once you solve for this—once you're locked in on this key idea—the game is easy.

Here it is.

Once you get to Week 5, the game shifts.

In fact, it shifts so drastically tha