If You Drafted Today, What Would the First 5 Rounds Look Like?

Congratulations on making it past the halfway mark, Guillotine Leaguers! I’ll be here once per week answering questions from you, the readers. If you have a specific Guillotine-related question you want answered in this column, shoot me a tweet @jakenagy98 on the former Twitter.

If you were to start a fresh Guillotine League™ today, what would your first few rounds look like?

Ah, a clever way to ask for my rest-of-season rankings, dear Reader. We now have half a fantasy season of data points with which to work, making drafters much more informed. Of course, the name of the game will still be identifying value in the later rounds. At the halfway point, all nine teams are going to be stacked. We need to draft for more upside, avoid major pitfalls (bye weeks), and fill our bench with even more upside. Check out last week’s mailbag for how you should be constructing your roster at this point in the season. Also, you can join a new Guillotine League today! We’re spinning them up all the time. Come join the fun. and if a nine-week experience is too long for you, just pick the double-chop option and be done in half the time!

In midseason Guillotine League drafts, even more so than preseason, we have to put emphasis on bye weeks (and injuries). You simply cannot take a guaranteed zero. If you do draft a player with an upcoming bye in the first three or four rounds, you need to be ready to spend big and spend early to fill those gaps, ideally with players who have had their bye already. Below, I’ve outlined my first five rounds of a hypothetical nine team Guillotine League draft, and because bye weeks are so important, I’ve included them in parentheses. You can sort of discern tier breaks when guys with looming byes or ongoing injuries are grouped together.

Round 1

• 1.01 - RB Bijan Robinson (5)
• 1.02 - WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (8)
• 1.03 - WR Puka Nacua (8)
• 1.04 - RB Jahmyr Gibbs (8)
• 1.05 - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (8)
• 1.06 - RB Christian McCaffrey (14)
• 1.07 - RB Jonathan Taylor (11)
• 1.08 - WR Ja’Marr Chase (10)
• 1.09 - WR Rashee Rice (10)

Gibbs & St. Brown would be below everybody except maybe Rashee Rice if they hadn’t already had their bye.

Round 2

• 2.01 - TE Brock Bowers (8)
• 2.02 - WR Drake London (5)
• 2.03 - TE Trey McBride (8)
• 2.04 - RB De’Von Achane (12)
• 2.05 - WR CeeDee Lamb (10)
• 2.06 - RB Josh Jacobs (5)
• 2.07 - RB James Cook (7)
• 2.08 - WR Davante Adams (8)
• 2.09 - RB Saquon Barkley (9)

I would not be mad at you for scooping Bowers in Round 1 based upon what we saw last week. The next best Tight End, Tyler Warren, has a Week 11 bye, further increasing the value of Bowers and McBride. We won’t have to wait too long for Warren, though - the value of a top tier tight end almost offsets the looming bye.

Round 3

• 3.01 - WR Justin Jefferson (6)
• 3.02 - WR Nico Collins (6)
• 3.03 - TE Tyler Warren (11)
• 3.04 - QB Josh Allen (7)
• 3.05 - RB Derrick Henry (7)
• 3.06 - RB Ashton Jeanty (8)
• 3.07 - WR Emeka Egbuka (9)
• 3.08 - RB Kyren Williams (8)
• 3.09 - RB Javonte Williams (10)

Our first Quarterback off the board is Josh Allen, who provides a unique floor-ceiling combination that can easily carry you to a championship.

Round 4

• 4.01 - QB Lamar Jackson (7)
• 4.02 - RB Bucky Irving (9)
• 4.03 - WR Garrett Wilson (9)
• 4.04 - QB Jalen Hurts (9)
• 4.05 - QB Patrick Mahomes (10)
• 4.06 - WR Tee Higgins (10)
• 4.07 - WR George Pickens (10)
• 4.08 - RB Breece Hall (9)
• 4.09 - WR Rome Odunze (5)

It starts to get pretty sketchy here! Is Bucky Irving actually coming back? Are my Jets players going to get traded to XFL? Is Rome Odunze going to get me 0 points again?

Round 5

• 5.01 - AJ Brown (9)
• 5.02 - DK Metcalf (5)
• 5.03 - Chase Brown (10)
• 5.04 - Drake Maye (14)
• 5.05 - Courtland Sutton (14)
• 5.06 - Jaylen Waddle (12)
• 5.07 - Michael Pittman (11)
• 5.08 - DeVonta Smith (9)
• 5.09 - Zay Flowers (8)

Drake Maye is the only other quarterback I would spend a high pick on. Jake Ferguson and George Kittle are typically the next highest ranked tight ends, but both have put up duds lately and have looming byes, so they miss the cut. Smith and Flowers represent the tier break of WRs with looming byes that are worth the high pick vs. WRs with looming byes that are not: Ladd McConkey, Stefon Diggs, Tetairoa McMillan, and onward.

Later Round Picks

You’re going to win your 9-week Guillotine League by identifying late-season breakouts. Who are the players that are undervalued right now, but will be league winners down the stretch? Who is this year’s Bucky Irving?

At quarterback, it’s hard not to like how Jaxson Dart has been playing lately, all while his weapons drop left and right. Dart has cleared 19 points in five of six starts, with the other outing resulting in 17 points. He’s added at least 5.0 fantasy points with his legs in four of six, providing a rock solid floor while flashing a high ceiling a few times. Dart has the third-easiest QB strength of schedule the rest of the way according to our SoS tool, but watch out for the Week 14 bye. The diet version of Dart for the desperate is JJ McCarthy, who boasts the easiest QB strength of schedule.

At running back, I like the following rookies with easy schedules and clear paths to a big workload:

• TreVeyon Henderson: GASP. Yes, the guy I told you to drop a couple weeks ago could be the breakout we need down the stretch. New England has the easiest RB strength of schedule, and Henderson looked great filling in for Rhamondre Stevenson last week.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt: The fantasy football hive mind has been touting this industry plant since the preseason and it hasn’t panned out. Maybe the sixth-easiest strength of schedule will help?
• Devin Neal: This is my personal favorite choice. Alvin Kamara looks washed and disinterested. When the Saints are 2-12, do we really think he’s going to be active week in and week out?

At receiver, I just don’t see it happening this year for preseason favorites such as Matthew Golden, Keon Coleman, and Luther Burden. Targeting the recently traded wideouts and those otherwise impacted could be fruitful: Rashid Shaheed, Jakobi Meyers, and Tre Tucker.

At tight end… just go get Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, or Tyler Warren. Next would be Jake Ferguson and Oronde Gadsden. If you want to roster Harold Fannin and Coleston Loveland for funsies, go for it.