The Most Dangerous Guillotine Leagues™ Draft Possible: Beware Christian McCaffrey In Round 1

One-time Minnesota Governor, Jesse Ventura, once said: "Until you have hunted men, you haven't hunted yet."

The former Navy Seal-turned-wrestler-turned-actor sparked controversy with the comment, especially among people who were just realizing that, yes, Minnesota had elected a wrestler as governor.

Like Jesse, in your Guillotine LeaguesTM draft, you're going to be hunting dangerous prey: men. 

Your roster is going to have some risky players. But risk management for your roster is critical. In essence, you'll want to be an amateur actuary, figuring out how much risk you can add to your roster, without putting yourself into a zone of danger. 

In a moment, I'll be listing the most dangerous players in each round of a Guillotine LeaguesTM draft, based on FantasyLife's ADP. That's not to say, these are the worst picks in each round. In many cases, these players are draftable, often with tremendous upside. 

But you need to limit your roster's overall risk profile. During your draft, keep a mental tab of how many risky players you've obtained. From the list below, I'd limit my roster to one player. 

Dangerous Players For a Guillotine LeaguesTM Draft

Round 1's Most Dangerous Player—SF RB Christian McCaffrey (ADP 10)
Last year, the most-chopped player across the 2024 season was Christian McCaffrey. The amazing thing about that statistic is that CMC was ruled out in advance of almost every game last year, so from the bench, he was chopping his managers! 

As you know, he's had a litany of injuries that have sidelined him for massive swaths of the 2020, 2021, and 2024 seasons. 

Yet when he's healthy, CMC is fantasy football's best weapon, particularly in PPR, where he's been unmatchable. 

Round 2's Most Dangerous Player—CIN WR Tee Higgins (ADP 29)
Needless to say, Tee Higgins is a really good player. But, he's not a player without risk. His ADP, currently WR12, is too high for the Guillotine LeaguesTM format, which predicates itself on reliable production. 

The problem isn't with Higgins, it's with Ja'Marr Chase. Over his four seasons, Chase's targets have exploded, and rightfully so, ballooning to 175 last year. Chase is an absolute workhorse, and often there's just not enough pigskin to go around for Higgins. 

In Higgins' last two seasons, he's played 24 games. In half of those games, he's finished as WR33 or worse.  The common denominator for those dud games is a lack of targets and receptions. In those 12 games, Higgins has averaged just 5 targets and 3 receptions. 

Round 3's Most Dangerous Player—KC WR Rashee Rice (ADP 46)
Jordan Addison's legal situation has been adjudicated, resulting in a three-game suspension to start the season. Addison's three-game suspension dropped him four rounds in my Guillotine LeaguesTM rankings because of the importance of the start of the season.

Rashee Rice's legal situation is far more serious after pleading guilty to felony charges stemming from a high-speed, hit-and-run accident that left multiple people injured. He could easily get double Addison's suspension. 

On the other hand, Rice was sitting on a monster season last year, prior to season-ending knee injury. He'd posted 24 passes for 288 yards and 3 scores across the first three games, ranking as WR3 in PPR. 

Round 4's Most Dangerous Player—DEN RB RJ Harvey (ADP 58)
An already-murky Denver running back situation took a turn on Saturday when RJ Harvey got the majority of first-team reps, including playing on 12 of 13 first and second downs. J.K. Dobbins took five third-down reps.

Depending on who you ask, Harvey either looked brilliant or foolish in that game, jump cutting to outside routes, even when the design of the play seemed to be upfield. His preseason play highlights the risk and reward that Harvey brings to the table. 

As a historical data point for Sean Payton, it took Alvin Kamara until mid-October to get more than 7 carries in a game. 

Round 5's Most Dangerous Player—TB WR Chris Godwin (ADP 79)
Of all 10 dangerous players I'm listing, this is the single most risky decision, when you combine Godwin's cost (Round 5) with his danger level. Godwin is at risk of missing the start of the season, and probably will find himself on the PUP list, which nukes his September. Even if he plays Week 1, after missing most/all of training camp, how confident would you be in starting him? 

Round 6's Most Dangerous Player—GB WR Matthew Golden (ADP 95)
Rookies are always high-risk propositions. Remember Marvin Harrison last year? Many viewed him as a slam dunk last August, and he ended up being a disaster for Guillotine LeaguesTM use (and most other formats). 

Golden has to overcome a deep Packers roster of veteran wideouts who don't need to learn Matt LaFleur's offense from scratch. 

Adding to my concern is Golden's modest college resume, which may portend a slower acclimation to the NFL. He never topped 38 receptions until last year's (still modest) 58 catches. By way of comparison, Emeka Egbuka, also a first-rounder, had 60 more catches for almost 1,000 more yards in college than Golden. 

Round 7's Most Dangerous Player—SF WR Brandon Aiyuk (ADP 118)
On Monday, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan all but confirmed that Brandon Aiyuk will start on the PUP list, saying that Week 6 could be a realistic target. In Guillotine LeaguesTM, we start eight players, so in Round 7, you need a Week 1 starter.

Over time, Aiyuk will likely return to his prior form. But how long will that take? And will your team have survived every weekly chop by that time?  

And, by the time Aiyuk has returned to 100% health, will his job have been lost to Jauan Jennings and/or Ricky Pearsall? To my eyes, Jennings looked better than Aiyuk last year (PFF agrees, ranking Jennings at WR17 and Aiyuk at WR52). Pearsall splashed at the end of last year, and the first-rounder could be a lot better as a sophomore. Keep in mind, Jennings has been slowed by a calf injury during the preseason.

Round 8's Most Dangerous Player—ATL TE Kyle Pitts (ADP 139)
At this point, why are we even talking about Kyle Pitts? I appreciate that there's something appealing about being the first person in your league history to not regret drafting Pitts. Maybe, just maybe, Pitts has always been a victim of bad quarterbacking, and Michael Penix is going to reverse Pitts' previous four years of inconsistency.  

We only saw Penix for three games last season, a small sample size, and two of those three were disastrous games for Pitts, 1-7-0 and 2-15-0.  And here's the thing, that's normal for Pitts. He's failed to hit double-digit PPR points in 20 of his last 28 games. 

Round 9's Most Dangerous Player—MIA RB Jaylen Wright (ADP157)
At this time last year, one of the biggest talking points was De'Von Achane's recurring injuries. He surprised us by playing every game last season, which left Jaylen Wright without any meaningful playing time.

But what if Achane succumbs to injury, like he did in 2023 and throughout his college years? The stylistically similar Wright would walk into Miami's starting role. 

On the first drive of last Saturday's preseason game, Mike McDaniel took out Achane at the stripe and gave the ball to Wright four straight times. Miami's crappy offensive line gave Wright nothing to work with and he got stuffed all four times.

Round 10's Most Dangerous Player—GB WR Matthew Stafford (ADP 169)
Matthew Stafford's ADP is cratering (and taking Puka Nacua and Davante Adams with him) due to his lingering back injury. At the time of this writing, he hasn't practiced yet, and he feels almost undraftable right now. 

But, optimistically, Stafford's a veteran who doesn't need preseason reps and could hit the ground running in Week 1 despite minimal training camp.

If you're dismissing Stafford's meager 2024 fantasy finish, QB19 across the full season, remember he was missing Kupp and Nacua for the first third of the 2024 season. Once those guys returned healthy, from Week 8 forward, including the playoffs, Stafford averaged 242 passing yards (QB13 per game) and 1.8 touchdowns (QB6) across a full season.

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