Week 11 Guillotine Leagues™️ Bidding Advice: Is Justin Jefferson Still a Target?

Welcome to Week 11, Guillotine Leaguers!

Compared to regular leagues, there are so many unique elements to Guillotine Leagues. There's more strategy, excitement and danger. Best of all, I love the shifting strategies that unfold over the course of the Guillotine season.

The survival techniques you implemented in September are different from October, and different again, now in November.

At this stage of the season, you can start thinking about something unthinkable in regular leagues: Dropping good players. It sounds crazy, for sure. Even though I don't know your roster, most likely, you could drop several players, even good ones, and be better for it. And you can simultaneously drain some funds from the competition who end up rostering those players.

Consider this analogy: We prune healthy trees of healthy branches, in order to make room to allow the tree to grow. Jettisoning the dead weight from your roster is kinda like that, except that trees and humans aren't really the same at all.

At this point, you're very invested in your Guillotine Leagues™️ roster. You've put over two months of work to remain alive right now. Two months! I'm going to ask you to spend 15 minutes on your roster.

Look at every single player on your roster and look at his schedule, especially noting difficult matchups. Then, set a sample lineup for each week of the rest of the season. At the end, for each player, ask yourself some key questions:

"How many more times will I start this player?"
"Is he touchdown dependent?"
"Does this guy have downside that could hurt me?"
"Is Gordon Ramsey a peculiar selection for sportsbook pitchman?"
"Is there any realistic scenario where he's an end-game player?"

The answer key for droppable players is: "few," "yes," "yes", "odd but kinda brilliant" and "no."

I don't expect you to perfectly predict the future, especially injuries. Heck, if I could perfectly predict the future, I'd have Jonathan Taylor on every one of my rosters. But, releasing yourself from the constraints of "regular league" thinking is critical to winning in Guillotine Leagues.

And pruning your roster of dead weight, even pretty good players, is a healthy exercise that your competition won't consider.

Week 11 Guillotine Leagues™ Waiver Wire Bidding Advice

I had a great text exchange with my buddy, Paul, on Monday night, in the aftermath of the Eagles-Packers game. It encapsulates everything great about Guillotine Leagues™️ in one place. The "Monday Night Sweat" is very real.

You're picking up the conversation after Eagles HC Nick Sirianni inexplicably throws a bomb from midfield on fourth-and-1 with 30 seconds on the clock, while nursing a three-point lead.

Also, be sure to listen to the CHOP Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decision.

Self-Evaluation: Do You Have a Short-Term or Long-Term Roster Problem?

Over the course of this story, you'll see a lot specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for the rest of the year.

Broad Bidding Strategies

How much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

End-game players: These are guys who’ll be in your roster for the rest of the year, even through December. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. At this stage of the season, max your bidding on end-game players at around $200. No more, unless you’re desperate.
Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another month or so. $10-$20. Be careful here. Throwing down $20 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $0-$5.

The 10 Most Chopped Players From Week 10

Great news, prices continue to fall for all players, even elite ones. Last week's most expensive player, Jonathan Taylor, went for a median price of $301. Nobody else was in the 300s. By way of comparison in Week 1, 23 (!) players went for more than $301.

In my estimation, eight of the top 10 players are end-game players.

10. KC TE Travis Kelce (14.3% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 75/100
Upcoming schedule: @DEN; IND; @DAL
Last week's median price: $6
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $15
Charch says: I was worried about Travis Kelce losing targets when Rashee Rice returned. Instead, it was the Chiefs' bye week that got him on this list. To his credit, even with Rice, Kelce has remained productive in the Chiefs offense, averaging 5 receptions for 73 yards. A lot of his production has come on plays where Kelce is wide open, perhaps because Rice is demanding defensive attention. Kelce's days of providing elite tight end production are probably past him, and I don't quite see him as an end-game player.

9. BAL RB Derrick Henry (15.5% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 64/100
Upcoming schedule: @CLE; NYJ; CIN
Last week's median price: $150
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $75
Charch says: Henry's only barely an end-game player, and ideally, just a flex player on your roster in December. He's getting a lot of use lately, averaging 21 carries over the last month, generating three wins in four games. But on Monday, John Harbaugh said that he wants to get Keaton Mitchell more involved. And rightfully so. The ongoing problem for Henry is his lack of receptions. He hasn't topped 16 receiving yards in a game this year. And that's how Henry has ended up on this list thee times this year. Weirdly, he's not breaking tackles. It feels like a typo, but Derrick Henry ranks 65th in broken tackles, tied with teammate Justice Hill, who has 130 fewer carries.

8. ATL RB Bijan Robinson (15.6% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 94/100
Upcoming schedule: CAR; @NO; @NYJ
Last week's median price: $301
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $225
Charch says: Last Sunday, Tyler Allgeier "stole" 2 touchdowns from Bijan and shockingly, we're back to bidding on a guy who's been on this list three times since Week 5. Bijan's touchdown production has been the problem. He's only had 2 rushing touchdowns and 2 receiving touchdowns. Allgeier has 6 scores. The Falcons' offense has been middling, averaging 18 points over the last five games. His upcoming schedule looks very favorable, but Carolina and New Orleans are actually sneaky-decent run defenses.

7. Buf RB James Cook (16.6% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 78/100
Upcoming schedule: TB; @HOU; @PIT
Last week's median price: $206
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $175
Charch says: I'm surprised to see Cook on this list because last week he finally broke his month-long receiving drought. His 5 catches should have been enough to keep him safe in many leagues. But at this stage of the season, 12.7 PPR points simply isn't enough from a key player. Still, Cook remains a hugely important part of the Bills offense, and he's an obvious end-game player. His remaining schedule is all over the board, with tough and easy games.

6. LV TE Brock Bowers (17% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 88/100
Upcoming schedule: DAL; CLE; @LAC
Last week's median price: $43
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $25
Charch says: The fact that tight ends are going so cheaply indicates that, by now, most teams have a solution in place for the position. Two weeks ago, Bowers put up the highest score by a tight end in two years. Then last week, he wasn't even the highest-scoring tight end on his own team. Fantasy football, man. According to the Fantasy Life Strength of Schedule, the Raiders have the hardest remaining schedule for tight ends, including a brutal five-game stretch after this week's game against Dallas: Browns, Chargers, Broncos, Eagles, Texans. As great as Brock Bowers is, I can't guarantee you dud-free games ahead.

5. PHI QB Jalen Hurts (17.6% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming schedule: DET; @DAL; CHI
Last week's median price: $40
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $28
Charch says: This is a great opportunity to get a (normally) very safe player who also has big-game upside. Prior to Monday night's dud, he'd posted multiple scores in six straight games. With only eight (at most) teams left, you're probably already set at quarterback, but Hurts is a top-three option at the position, so I'd still spend some funds.

4. CIN WR Ja'Marr Chase (17.9% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 94/100
Upcoming schedule: @PIT; NE; @BAL
Last week's median price: $176
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $250
Charch says: Note the suspiciously low amount Chase went for last week, just $176. But he was heading into his bye week, which suppressed his value. You'll probably need to pay more than $176 to snare Ja'Marr Chase this week. At this point, I'm not sure how I feel about Joe Burrow's looming return in two weeks. Take your time, Joe! Chase has been dominant with Joe Flacco, finishing as WR5, WR1, WR9 and WR17. I love that Chase has two capable passers to help retain his fantasy value to the end of the season.

3. PHI WR A.J. Brown (18.1% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 67/100
Upcoming schedule: DET; @DAL; CHI
Last week's median price: $42
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $20
Charch says: The Eagles offense just can't find its rhythm (except against the Vikings, natch). But maybe this is a buy-low moment for AJB, a superstar last year. The Eagles have the second-easiest remaining schedule for wide receivers, including back-to-back glorious opportunities against the Lions and Cowboys.

2. IND WR Michael Pittman (18.4% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 68/100
Upcoming schedule: BYE; @KC; HOU
Last week's median price: $53
End game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $5
Charch says: Prior to last week's dud, Pittman had been a very safe Guillotine commodity, scoring at least 15 PPR points in six of the prior seven games. This is his first appearance in the top 10 list. Daniel Jones' play has dropped off, which is a contributor. Pay close attention to the schedule. He's on bye, and then faces two of the top-6 WR defenses, Kansas City and Houston. Brutal! Two weeks after that, he'll face Seattle. No bueno.

1. MIN WR Justin Jefferson (20% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 82/100
Upcoming schedule: CHI; @GB; @SEA
Last week's median price: $201
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $125
Charch says: We knew the Vikings offense would suffer some growing pains while onboarding J.J. McCarthy. In McCarthy's four starts, Jefferson has posted 13, 10, 14 and 6 fantasy points. Those aren't the numbers of a WR1. Last week's game was peculiar because Jefferson showed obvious lack of effort. I've never seen Jefferson look as disinterested as he did on Sunday. Fortunately, Jefferson is getting targets from McCarthy—9 and 12 the last two weeks—including deep passing. Last week, he had 206 air yards. The forthcoming schedule is a mixed bag. The Chicago secondary may be without Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson. But after that, it's tough matchups against two excellent pass-rushing teams, the Packers and Seahawks.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for Guillotine usage. They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

You may notice the list of players in this section is getting shorter. That's mostly because it's Week 11, and with the consolidation of rosters, the bar for rosterable players keeps getting higher.

ARI RB Emari Demercado—Charch recommends $5
It appears that Trey Benson is still a few weeks away from returning from his knee injury, making Emari Demercado a viable fill-in, even in a timeshare with Bam Knight. Demercado faces San Francisco's battered defense on Sunday. Over the past three weeks, we've seen No. 2 runners pile up solid games against the Niners: Woody Marks put up 111 yards, Tyrone Tracy posted 37 yards, and last week, Blake Corum gashed 'em for 56 yards. Demercado can catch, and the Niners have allowed the fifth-most running back receptions. He's got a favorable matchup the following week against Jacksonville, if Benson is still sidelined at that point.

HOU RB Woody Marks—Charch recommends $20
For a month, it's been a slow transition in the Houston backfield with Woody Marks eating into Nick Chubb's usage. But last Sunday, it looked like the transition is complete. In a close game, Marks dominated Chubb in snaps (54-10), carries (14-5) and routes (27-5). Notably, Marks was also used at the goal line, including a one-yard touchdown. Maybe last week will prove to be an outlier, but to my eyes, Marks is simply the better back, and we're going to see similar usage going forward. You can likely drop Nick Chubb.

TB WR Tez Johnson—Charch recommends $10
A lot of people dropped Tez Johnson over the Bucs' bye week, perhaps assuming that Chris Godwin would come back and put Johnson back on the bench. But, it looks like Godwin's fibula injury is going to sideline him for a few more weeks. And, for that matter, Johnson's play has been so good, there's a good chance Tez isn't going to yield his starting role even when Godwin returns. Tez has 4 touchdowns in the last four games. The Fantasy Life strength of schedule tool shows the Bucs with the second-easiest remaining WR schedule.

IND WR Alec Pierce—Charch recommends $1
It's consecutive big games for Alec Pierce, whose role has improved over the course of the year. From Weeks 1-6, Pierce was averaging just 4 targets per game. Since then it's doubled to 8 per game! That's bankable volume, critical in a Guillotine League. Pierce brings big-play upside with this staggeringly long ADOT of 20.4 yards, second longest in the league. I'm only bidding $1 because of Indy's schedule: The Colts are on bye this week and after that, it's tough matchups with the quality secondaries in Kansas City and Houston.

BUF TE Dawson Knox—Charch recommends $1
It looks like Dalton Kincaid could miss several weeks with his hamstring injury. That'll put Knox into a leading role in an offense that’s posted the fifth-most yards by tight ends, 68 per game! The Bills haven't been able to develop an alpha wideout, so their tight ends remain integral to their offense. Hopefully, Kincaid will heal quickly, but if he's out a month, give Knox some smash spots against the Pittsburgh and Cincinnati defenses in a few weeks.

Week 11 Guillotine Leagues™️ Bidding Advice: Is Justin Jefferson Still a Target?

Week 11 Guillotine Leagues™ Waiver Wire Bidding Advice

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Self-Evaluation: Do You Have a Short-Term or Long-Term Roster Problem?

Broad Bidding Strategies

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