Week 11 Guillotine Leagues™ Strategy: It's Time To Bench Derrick Henry
Matt LaMarca and Guillotine Leagues™ founder Paul Charchian break down their strategy for starts and sits in Week 11.
We’re officially in the home stretch. We’ve got just a handful of weeks left in the fantasy regular season, and things are only going to get tougher in Guillotine Leagues™. The waiver wire is going to be jam-packed with studs on a weekly basis, while start/sit decisions will become increasingly tougher.
Just look at some of the most-chopped players from Week 10—Ja’Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson and Brock Bowers are among the best players in fantasy at their positions, and they were all responsible for sending people home.
In other words, almost every player in fantasy needs to be put under the microscope in Guillotine Leagues™. Guys who were no-doubt starters early in the year can be the end of your season if you trust them in the wrong matchup.
That said, one bad start doesn’t necessarily have to put you under the executioner’s blade. If you make smart decisions with the rest of your roster, you can still overcome a poor showing at this point in the year.
That’s the focus of this piece. Each week, I’ll take a look at a few players who are risky starts in Guillotine Leagues™ and suggest a few potential alternatives. These guys might not have the same ceiling or grade out as well in our weekly rankings, but they hopefully make up for it with a safer floor. Guillotine Leagues™ founder and guru Paul Charchian will also weigh in with his thoughts on my selections.
Let’s dive into Week 11.
Guillotine Leagues™ Strategy For Week 11
Sit: Derrick Henry at Browns
Sitting running backs against the Browns has become sort of a chalk option for fantasy purposes. They’re second in the league in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the second-fewest PPR points per game to the position. Fading RBs against the Browns has become so obvious that Charch self-imposed a rule against picking those players in the “flex around and find out” segment on Thursday’s CHOP podcast.
However, benching Henry isn’t quite the same as benching some random RB against the Browns. This is one of the most productive runners in recent NFL history, and he’s coming off more than 2,100 scrimmage yards and 18 touchdowns just last year. Henry hasn’t been quite as productive this season, but he’s had to survive multiple weeks without Lamar Jackson. Now that his starting QB is back, Henry and the offense could be ready to get rolling.
That said, there have been some clear signs of decline. Look at how some of Henry’s metrics compare this year to last year:
- Yards per carry: 5.9 last year, 4.8 this season
- Broken tackles: 42 last year (first in the league), five this year (tied for 34th)
- Yards after contact per attempt: 2.4 last year (13th), 1.7 this year (77th)
Adding Jackson back to the mix at quarterback could result in more scoring opportunities, but it’s not going to magically fix everything wrong with Henry.
Additionally, Jackson was in the lineup when these teams squared off in Week 2, and Henry finished with just 23 yards on 11 carries. Henry also provides almost nothing as a receiver, so if he struggles as a runner again, Henry could send a lot of teams to the grave in Week 11.
Charch says: I’ll quote my waiver wire story from Tuesday: “Henry’s getting a lot of use lately, averaging 21 carries over the last month, generating three wins in four games. But on Monday, John Harbaugh said that he wants to get Keaton Mitchell more involved. And rightfully so. The ongoing problem for Henry is his lack of receptions. He hasn't topped 16 receiving yards in a game this year. And that's how Henry has posted dud games three times this year. Weirdly, he's not breaking tackles. It feels like a typo, but Derrick Henry ranks 65th in broken tackles, tied with teammate Justice Hill, who has 130 fewer carries.” He’s not immune to duds, and if there’s a time to bench Derrick Henry, this is it.
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Start: RJ Harvey vs. Chiefs
After a slow start to the year, the rookie RB class is finally getting to show its stuff. TreVeyon Henderson went off for a big game in Week 10, and Harvey could be poised for his breakout in Week 11.
Harvey has already provided a bit of fantasy value in recent games. He had three touchdowns vs. the Cowboys three weeks ago, and he had five catches, 51 receiving yards, and a score the following week. He struggled to get anything going last week vs. the Raiders, but he had minimal opportunities in that contest.
Now that starter J.K. Dobbins is out with an injury, the coast is clear for Harvey to take over as the team’s lead back. Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin will likely still work in the mix, but Harvey has the potential to handle 70% of the team’s carries. Harvey has also been targeted on 23% of his routes run this season, so more snaps should lead to production as a receiver as well.
The matchup vs. the Chiefs is also favorable. They’re 25th in the league in rush defense EPA, and they’re dead last in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate. The Broncos are an above-average run-blocking squad, so Harvey should be productive with his expanded workload.
Charch Says: I differ with Matt on this one, but I applaud the contrarian angle. The Chiefs have been a very tough fantasy defense for opposing runners, particularly since Week 5. Over the past five weeks, KC has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing runners, including just one touchdown! Matt’s right that Harvey’s got good pass-catching skills, but I worry that, as the starter, he’s going to be rested for Badie on passing downs. Harvey looks very promising, and I’m excited to see what he’ll do in his first start. But I’m worried about this matchup.
Sit: A.J. Brown vs. Lions
Don’t take this one from me, take it from the man himself:
The Eagles’ offense has taken a clear step back compared to last year. They’re down from seventh to 12 in points per game, and they’ve slipped from eighth to 23rd in yardage. Brown has also seen a pretty significant reduction in volume. The Eagles didn’t throw the ball often last year, but Brown made up for it with a massive 33% target share. This year, that figure has slipped to 25%. He’s fallen behind DeVonta Smith in that department, and he had just a 13% target share last week.
Brown has also been significantly less efficient with the opportunities he has gotten. He’s posting career-low marks in both yards per target (7.6) and catch rate (57.4%), and he’s also caught just three touchdowns.
The matchup vs. the Lions is also far from ideal. Their defense has gotten healthier in recent weeks, and they’ve shown significant improvement vs. the pass. They’re fifth in pass defense EPA since Week 7, so I’m heeding Brown’s warning.
Charch says: The squeaky wheel gets the grease! Philly OC Kevin Patullo is under incredible heat. Compared to last year, his offense has labored, looking fractionally as good, despite returning most of the same players. One of the obvious levers Patullo can pull is to get A.J. Brown the ball more often. Brown was integral in last year’s Super Bowl-bound offense. The Lions secondary has struggled all year, allowing multiple passing touchdowns to seven of nine passers, including J.J. McCarthy and Marcus Mariota, the past two weeks.
Start: Tez Johnson at Bills
Conversely, I have zero qualms about starting Johnson. Baker Mayfield has shown the ability to support multiple pass-catchers for fantasy purposes, and Johnson has moved into the No. 2 slot with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans out of the lineup recently. Godwin and Bucky Irving both remain without timetables to return, so they’re going to need Johnson to continue to carry some of the burden.
Johnson has posted an 83% route participation since Week 6, and he’s been at 87% or higher in back-to-back games. His 15% target share over that time frame doesn’t jump off the page, but the Bucs throw the ball at an elevated rate; 15% in Tampa is as good as 20% in other situations.
Additionally, Johnson has a 36% end zone share over that time frame, so he’s been a frequent option for Baker Mayfield around the goal line. He has four touchdowns in his past four games, including two last week vs. the Patriots.
Johnson has averaged 14.2 PPR points over his past four outings, and that’s enough to keep him relevant in Guillotine Leagues™.
Charch Says: Tez has the confidence of Baker Mayfield and that’s a great sign for his ongoing productivity, including this game. The Bills are a middle-of-the-pack pass defense, with some major upside for Tez if Buffalo cornerbacks Christian Benford and/or Taron Johnson don’t play.
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