Week 12 Guillotine Leagues™️ Bidding Advice: Jonathan Taylor, Ja'Marr Chase and More

Welcome to Week 12, Guillotine Leaguers! Some of you may know me from the weekly Guillotine Leagues™ Mailbag column. Moving forward, I’ll be stepping in for Charch here in the weekly Waiver Column.

I’d like to kick this off with an enormous thank you to Charch. Charch gave me my first opportunity in the fantasy football space, and has provided invaluable feedback, guidance, and, most importantly, kindness and positivity throughout my career. He’s a titan of the industry, and I have some Jordan Mailata-sized shoes to fill. I’ll be doing so by keeping much of the same structure and format for these columns each week. Thanks for everything, Charch!

Week 12 Guillotine Leagues™ Waiver Wire Bidding Advice

Over the course of this column, you'll see a lot of specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation.

Self-Evaluation: Do You Have a Short-Term or Long-Term Roster Problem?

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for the rest of the year.

Broad Bidding Strategies

How much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

End-game players: These are guys who’ll be in your roster for the rest of the year, even through December. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. I’m alright with bumping your max bid up to $250 on these players at this point (with one exception, see below).
Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another month or so. $10-$20. Be careful here. Throwing down $20 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $0-$5.

The 10 Most Chopped Players From Week 11

There are a couple tweaks to the data you’ll see below:

Utilization Scores will be limited to the last four weeks only. This gives us a better picture of how the player is performing right now.
Following in Dwain’s footsteps from the Utilization Report, upcoming schedules will include the opponents’ Fantasy Boost to their respective position in parentheses per our DvP tool.

10. BUF WR Khalil Shakir (17.44% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 52/100
Upcoming Schedule: @HOU (-6.0); @PIT(+3.1); CIN (+0.7)
Last Week’s Median Price: $6
End-Game Player: NO
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $5
The Jakedown: With Dalton Kincaid out, hakir is technically Josh freakin’ Allen’s top pass catcher. Awesome, right? Wrong! Shakir and the other four or five wideouts, plus the backup tight ends, are each a small beam of sunlight in the heliocentric system that is the Buffalo Bills offense. Especially over the last two weeks, the offense’s only method of consistently moving the ball is via Josh Allen scrambles and James Cook touches. Shakir could find success from the slot against Houston this week while the outside receivers get blanketed, but I wouldn’t count on it.

9. LV RB Ashton Jeanty (17.88% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 89/100
Upcoming Schedule: CLE (-4.5) ; @LAC (+0.9); DEN (+0.2)
Last Week’s Median Price: $101
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $85
The Jakedown: It’s hard to call a player with three RB1 outings in 10 attempts an end-game player, but I’m giving Jeanty one last chance. He should at least be on end-game rosters simply due to his high utilization. He could very well find himself on this list again next week after a bottom-five matchup with the Browns, though. If you can survive to the championship, Jeanty finishes against the Giants’ woeful run defense.

8. PHI WR DeVonta Smith (18.10% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 69/100
Upcoming Schedule: @DAL (+7.1); CHI (+3.3); @LAC (-2.6)
Last Week’s Median Price: $36
End-Game Player: NO
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $50
The Jakedown: I’m getting aggressive with DeVonta Smith this week due to his upcoming schedule and recent utilization. Eagles wideouts have the second-easiest strength of schedule for opposing wideouts the rest of the way, and Smith has surpassed A.J. Brown as the WR1 in Philly. While a Utilization Score of 69 is not quite end-game material, he’s almost guaranteed to keep you alive against the Cowboys and Bears if you need help at receiver the next couple of weeks.

7. CIN WR Ja'Marr Chase (18.20% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 82/100
Upcoming Schedule: SSPD; @BAL (+3.5); @BUF (-2.0)
Last Week’s Median Price: $176
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $160
The Jakedown: Ja’Marr Chase’s spitting suspension presents us with a sticky situation since you’re guaranteed to eat a zero burger the week you acquire him. By the time he returns in Week 13, he’ll have gone four consecutive weeks without a WR1 performance. He should return to his normal production thereafter, especially if Joe Burrow returns in Week 13 or 14 as expected. Burrow’s return partially hinges on Cincy’s playoff hopes, and these unknowns lead to a less aggressive bid this week.

6. LAC WR Ladd McConkey (19.10% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 65/100
Upcoming Schedule: BYE; LV (+1.8); PHI (-5.2)
Last Week’s Median Price: $45
End-Game Player: NO
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $20
The Jakedown: Heading into the bye, and with Justin Herbert coming off the single worst game of his career, it’s tough to be excited about any Charger, including Ladd McConkey. There are so many talented skill players in this offense, including the eventual return of Omarion Hampton, that somebody ends up getting squeezed. Most often, that’s one or both of Quentin Johnston or Keenan Allen, but it’s McConkey at times, too. The battered offensive line is sinking the whole ship.

5. IND RB Jonathan Taylor (19.89% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 86/100
Upcoming Schedule: @KC (-3.8); HOU (-3.3); @JAC (-3.4)
Last Week’s Median Price: $301
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $300
The Jakedown: Jonathan Taylor is on pace for the second-best fantasy season from a FLEX-eligible player since 2011. Coming off his bye, this may be your last chance to acquire him. This is why you saved your FAAB. I’m pushing most, if not all, of my chips in here, worst schedule the rest of the way be damned.

4. BAL QB Lamar Jackson (21.23% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming Schedule: NYJ (-1.2); CIN (+5.5); PIT (+2.1)
Last Week’s Median Price: $100
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $75
The Jakedown: Lamar Jackson hasn’t looked the part of an end-game player since returning from his hamstring injury; he’s failed to crack the top 6 quarterbacks the last three weeks. The massive rushing ceiling we’re used to may not be there right now, but I’m willing to bank on increased rushing down the stretch amidst a soft schedule. The Ravens have the second-easiest strength of schedule the rest of the way, including two matchups with the Bengals.

3. DET WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (22.42% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 80/100
Upcoming Schedule: NYG (+4.8); GB (-1.3); DAL (+7.1)
Last Week’s Median Price: $252
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $251
The Jakedown: Y’all were very aggressive in going after ARSB last week, and I’m right there with you. He’s an end-game player in a top offense with a top-5 schedule the rest of the way. Sam LaPorta’s stint on IR should funnel more looks to St. Brown, too. Jameson Williams has been the primary beneficiary of Dan Campbell’s play-calling takeover, but I’m not concerned about one down week from St. Brown.

2. LAC QB Justin Herbert (22.46% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming Schedule: BYE; LV (-0.9); PHI (-3.5)
Last Week’s Median Price: $18
End-Game Player: NO
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $1
The Jakedown: Justin Herbert is not an end-game player with this offensive line. I saw Herbert get taken down WWE style on multiple occasions last week. Josh Hines-Allen may have even brought out a chair. Herbert’s got a bye, plus matchups with Philly, Kansas City and Houston on the horizon. Everyone say a quick prayer for Herbert before spending your FAAB elsewhere.

1. GB RB Josh Jacobs (22.46% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 88/100—leading up to last week’s game, which he left with a knee injury
Upcoming Schedule: MIN (-2.9); @DET (-0.7); CHI (+3.9)
Last Week’s Median Price: $200
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $125
The Jakedown: The good news is that Josh Jacobs’ knee contusion, suffered during last week’s win, is not considered IR-worthy. He even has a chance to suit up this week according to Matt LaFleur, but I wouldn’t count on it. If Jacobs does return soon, there's a risk it could be in a limited capacity, especially if Emanuel Wilson and the stable of backups play well in his potential absence. I’ve baked these risks into the recommended bid amount, but make no mistake: Jacobs is an end-game player when fully healthy.

Waiver Advice for “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of players who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for Guillotine League usage. They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

GB RB Emanuel Wilson—Jake recommends $25, $40 if you own Josh Jacobs

Emanuel Wilson can almost be considered a 1:1 replacement for Josh Jacobs in weeks Jacobs sits. You’ll take even 80% of Jacobs’ production for $25, and if you own Jacobs, you need to be aggressive with Wilson to stay alive unless you’re hunting a bigger fish. Green Bay has three consecutive division games coming up, and they’ll want to stick to their rushing identity during the most important stretch of their season.

TB RB Sean Tucker—Jake recommends $10

The Bucky Irving injury situation continues to confound the wider football community, so continue to fire up Sean Tucker while Irving sits. This week’s matchup with the Rams is tough, but the schedule softens considerably after that.

PIT RB Kenneth Gainwell—Jake recommends $5

Jaylen Warren isn’t as much of a lineup linchpin as Jacobs, so I don’t think you need to be as aggressive pursuing his backup. Plus, it’s more likely Warren suits up this week. If he doesn’t, Gainwell will be in RB2 territory; Kaleb Johnson will siphon some carries, but not enough to warrant concern.

ARI WR Michael Wilson—Jake recommends $10

When you set the season high for receiving yards in a single game, you should be sprinkled with at least a little FAAB. The return timeline for Marvin Harrison Jr. is hazy, but Wilson is a low-end WR2 with upside as long as Harrison remains out. Matchups with Jacksonville and Tampa Bay aren’t show stoppers.

GB WR Christian Watson—Jake recommends $1

Christian Watson has been the antithesis of a Guillotine player throughout his career, with his high aDoT contributing to a boom-bust outlook. He’s emerged as the only true playmaker in this passing attack, though, which could earn him more designed looks. It’s just not something I’m willing to stake my season on at this point.

ATL WR Darnell Mooney—Jake recommends $5

Darnell Mooney suddenly finds himself as the de facto WR1 in Atlanta, who’ll now be quarterbacked by his old buddy Kirk Cousins. Mooney posted career highs last season, largely with Cousins behind center. The vibes are just off this year. Mooney reportedly broke his collarbone at the start of training camp and has dealt with a malady of injuries since then, and Cousins has looked downright awful in spot-start duty this season. Still, I’ll bet $5 that the pair can recapture the magic of 2024 down the stretch.