Week 12 Guillotine Leagues Rest-of-Season Rankings: Ja'Marr Chase, Trey McBride, and More

We’re more than halfway through the NFL regular season, but the grind for hardcore fantasy players never truly stops. That’s especially true in Guillotine Leagues. New leagues are still forming, so you need to constantly be thinking about how to value each player.

That’s where our Rest of Season Rankings come in handy. They can help highlight which players have risen and fallen in the ranks since the start of the year and, hopefully, help you identify some undervalued targets.

Let’s dive into a few interesting players from the updated ranks.

The X-Factors

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals (ADP: 1.48, ROS: 6)

The NFL has talked about expanding the schedule and adding a second bye week in the coming years. Turns out, Ja'Marr Chase is ahead of his time. He’s going to take an unscheduled bye week in Week 12 after earning a one-game suspension for his incident with Jalen Ramsey.

We all know what Chase is capable of when available. He’s one of the best receivers in fantasy, and he’s currently fourth at the position in PPR points per game. His target share has increased to a ridiculous 36% since Joe Flacco took over at quarterback, and he had at least 17.1 PPR points in five straight games before last week’s debacle.

There’s also the looming Joe Burrow question. On paper, getting back one of the best QBs in football is obviously a good thing. However, Chase has been such a target hog with Flacco under center that it’s possible it ends up being a slight downgrade. There’s also a chance that Burrow isn’t 100% in his first few games back.

With that in mind, how do you evaluate Chase in start-up Guillotine Leagues or on the waiver wire? It’s a hard question to answer, but it drops him out of the top tier of receivers at a bare minimum. In new leagues, you simply can’t afford to use a first or second round pick on a guy who won’t be in the lineup in Week 12. You can potentially look to scoop him up after his unofficial bye week and could be stashed in existing leagues if you already have a deep roster, but Chase is simply a luxury option at this point in time.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers (ADP: 19.06, ROS: 29)

Josh Jacobs is another potentially elite option who has some question marks at the moment. He suffered an injury in Week 11, which ultimately led to him being the most-chopped player in Guillotine Leagues. That means many people will face the question of how to approach him moving forward.

Jacobs doesn’t feel quite like the same game-changer that Chase is, but he still averaged 19.6 PPR points per game through the first 10 weeks. That’s the sixth-best mark at the RB position, trailing only some of the biggest names in fantasy. Jacobs has also been a clear workhorse, ranking sixth among running backs in Utilization Score through his first nine games. He’s not truly elite from a pass-catching standpoint, but he makes up for it with his work around the goal line. Only Jonathan Taylor has more touchdowns and more carries from inside the five-yard line.

Jacobs’s injury is ultimately not considered serious, with Matt LaFleur telling reporters he could “possibly” play in Week 12. Still, it seems like the most likely scenario is that he misses a week or two.

Like with Chase, Jacobs has to be dinged slightly in the rest-of-season rankings. He moves down to No. 29 overall, and he checks in 12th among RBs. The best ability is availability, especially in Guillotine Leagues.

The 1-of-1s

Josh Allen, QB, Bills (ADP: 15.42, ROS: 24)

Josh Allen is the absolute GOAT when it comes to fantasy quarterbacks. No one in NFL history has combined passing and rushing upside the same way that Allen does.

He reminded us of that fact in Week 11, racking up three passing TDs and three rushing TDs in a win over the Buccaneers. It was only the second game in history with three touchdowns through the air and on the ground, and the only other player to do it was … himself. He also pulled off the feat last year vs. the Rams. If we lower the criteria to games with at least two passing and two rushing TDs, Allen has pulled it off eight times in his career. No other QB has more than four such games, and no other active QB has done it more than twice.

At this point, it’s hard not to view Allen in a tier of his own at the position. Not only does he give you a strong weekly floor, but he has weeks where he single-handedly drags your team across the finish line. QB is the most replaceable position in fantasy, and Allen has a really tough remaining schedule, but I would argue that Allen is the end-game quarterback. He is Thanos, while everyone else is Ultron at best.

Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals (ADP: 27.42, ROS: 15)

The gap between the top player at the position and the field is arguably even wider at tight end. Trey McBride entered the year in conversation for the top spot with guys like Brock Bowers and George Kittle. Other players have emerged along the way (Tucker Kraft, Tyler Warren, Jake Ferguson), but no one can hold a candle to McBride at this point.

From a utilization standpoint, McBride is the clear No. 1 option. He has a 27% target share for the year; no other TE is above 24%. His 27% air yards share is also first at the position.

The big development is that McBride has shown newfound end-zone prowess with Jacoby Brissett under center. He has historically struggled to find the paint to start his career. He had just two touchdowns last year, and he had just one through his first five games this season. Since Brissett took over, McBride has scored in five straight games, and he has six total TDs over that stretch. He’s had at least 100 yards and a touchdown in back-to-back outings, and he’s finished as a top two scorer at the position in four of the past five weeks.

Ultimately, McBride might give you the single biggest edge in Guillotine Leagues. If you have him on your squad, your opponents are going to be playing catch-up at tight end. It’s not unreasonable to select him really early in new startups, potentially even in the top five.

Proceed With Caution

Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Jaguars (ADP: 153.01, ROS: 111)

Bhayshul Tuten was a popular sleeper coming into the season. He has game-changing speed at running back, with his 40-yard dash time putting him in the 100th percentile. His pathway to playing time only got clearer after the team traded away Tank Bigsby, and he responded with his best game as a pro in Week 11. He racked up 15 carries vs. the Chargers, which he turned into 74 yards and a touchdown.

That said, it’s important to keep things in context. The Jaguars absolutely crushed the Chargers, which is not going to happen every week. Fifteen carries may sound like a lot, but it still resulted in just a 33% share. Tuten has also shown minimal upside as a pass-catcher for the year (4% target share), so it’s hard for him to provide value in weeks where he doesn’t get double-digit attempts. Travis Etienne isn’t going anywhere, so that doesn’t figure to be the case very often.

At this point in the year, we’re down to just seven teams in standard Guillotine Leagues. That means just 98 players are being rostered, and at least 14 of them have to be quarterbacks and tight ends. Does Tuten deserve to be one of the other 80ish players on a roster? He has some appeal as a handcuff, but barring an injury to Etienne, the answer is probably no.

Sean Tucker, RB, Buccaneers (ADP: 223.35, ROS: 116)

It appears as though the Rachaad White Ponzi scheme may finally be coming to an end. He’s a running back who simply cannot run the football. He’s averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt for his career, and he’s at just 3.9 yards per attempt this season. He’s been better when allowed to work in a complementary role, but he has shown zero ability to carry the load as a starting running back.

Sean Tucker took over as the team’s primary early-down running back in Week 11. He had a season-high 19 carries, and he finished with more than 100 yards and two touchdowns. He added a third score through the air, propelling him to a No. 2 finish at the position for the week. Tucker has now averaged 4.6 yards per carry this season after logging 6.2 yards per attempt last year, so he has the potential to be a solid producer when given opportunities.

That said, we know that Tucker has an expiration date. When Bucky Irving eventually returns to the lineup, he’s going to operate as the team’s starting running back. White will also continue to mix in on passing downs, leaving Tucker with a questionable workload. Irving will reportedly see a larger workload at practice this week, so it’s possible he makes his return vs. the Rams. Even if he doesn’t, Los Angeles is not a particularly good matchup. It means that Tucker can pretty safely be avoided.

We’re Outta Time

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs (ADP: 64.7, ROS: 129)

Isiah Pacheco’s time is officially over. Maybe he can come back from his injury soon, but even if he does, are you ever going to feel comfortable starting him? Pacheco has averaged just over 40 rushing yards per game, provides very little as a pass-catcher, and isn’t even a lock for the goal-line touches. If you’ve been holding on to him, it’s safe to set him free.

Jayden Reed, WR, Packers (ADP: 112.07, ROS: 143)

Reed is a bit trickier. On paper, he at least has the potential to be a top-20 producer at his position. That said, we still don’t know when he’s going to return to the lineup. He also has to deal with plenty of target competition in Green Bay. They still have Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks, and rookie first-rounder Matthew Golden returned to the lineup last week. Reed is probably the best of those guys, but he still profiles more as a 20% target share type of player than a true game-changer. We’re searching for end-game players at this point, and Reed just doesn’t fit the bill.