Week 14 Guillotine Leagues™️ Bidding Advice: Spend Your FAAB On Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Welcome to Week 14, Guillotine Leaguers! It’s hard to believe we’re one week away from the endgame. Allow me to be the first to congratulate you on making it this far. It’s no easy feat. Now, we need to finish the drill. In traditional Guillotine Leagues™, including those on guillotineleagues.com, bidding on chopped players is not allowed beyond Week 14. In keeping with the traditional Guillotine format, this will be the final waiver wire column of the season.

Week 14 Guillotine Leagues™ Waiver Wire Bidding Advice

Self-Evaluation: Do You Have a Short-Term or Long-Term Roster Problem?

If you have a short-term roster problem due to the Week 14 bye or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks. Note that there’s only one more bye week remaining this week. Ensure to set your lineup for the remaining weeks in order to accurately self-evaluate.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for the rest of the year.

Broad Bidding Strategies

How much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

End-game players: These are guys who’ll be on your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. With this being the last week of bidding, you should go all-in on these guys if you have FAAB remaining.
Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another week or so. $10-$20. At this point in the season, you should not be chasing this level of player unless you are short on FAAB. Dream bigger.
Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $0-$5.

The 10 Most-Chopped Players From Week 13

Some things to note on the data you’ll see below:

Utilization Scores will be limited to the last four weeks only. This gives us a better picture of how the player is performing right now.
Upcoming schedules will include the opponents’ Fantasy Boost to their respective position in parentheses per our DvP tool.
There will not be any specific dollar amounts this week. By this point in the season, you either have a lot of FAAB left relative to your other four leaguemates, some FAAB or no FAAB. The median prices below are proof enough of that. So, I’ll be providing one of three general strategies:

Aggressive: You should look to outbid your leaguemates on this player.
Moderate: You should put a bid down, but for less than what your leaguemates have left.
Mild: It’s probably not worth spending FAAB on this player at this point in the season.

10. MIA WR Jaylen Waddle (18.43% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 69 / 100
Upcoming Schedule: @NYJ (-1.6); @PIT (+2.9); CIN (-1.4)
Last Week’s Median Price: $11
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Moderate
The Jakedown: Prior to Week 13, Jaylen Waddle had posted at least 14 PPR points in six of seven games. He has not done that since. Over the last four weeks, the Dolphins’ run game has exploded, ranking second in EPA/per rush and rushing success rate. Conversely, their EPA per dropback and dropback success rate have fallen back to the middle of the pack. Tua Tagovailoa has historically struggled in December, and Miami has a couple of cold-weather games coming up. Waddle is worth rostering through the end game, but should only be started when necessary.

9. BAL QB Lamar Jackson (19.55% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming Schedule: PIT (+2.3); @CIN (+4.9); NE (+1.6)
Last Week’s Median Price: $6
End-Game Player: NO
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Mild
The Jakedown: I have officially thrown my last straw away when it comes to Lamar Jackson. I’d rather be out too early than too late, and it’s unfortunately too late for 19.55% of you. Jackson has posted fewer than 10 fantasy points in three consecutive games, including two plus matchups. The schedule ahead is just as easy, but Jackson can no longer be trusted in this format. I won’t sway you from holding onto him through the end game in hopes he returns to form, but you absolutely need to have a better option available.

8. LAR QB Matthew Stafford (20.52% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming Schedule: @ARI (-1.3); DET (+1.1); @SEA (-0.8)
Last Week’s Median Price: $1
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Mild
The Jakedown: It would be hard for me to recommend anything more than a mild bid strategy for a quarterback without rushing upside, but I considered it for Matthew Stafford. He’s thrown at least two scores in six straight and has cleared 240 yards in all but two of those outings. There won’t be more than a handful of quarterbacks ranked ahead of Stafford each week the rest of the way, but keep an eye on alternatives for Week 16 when Stafford travels to Seattle.

7. DET RB Jahmyr Gibbs (21.14% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 94 / 100
Upcoming Schedule: DAL (+3.1); @LAR (-4.3); PIT (-1.4)
Last Week’s Median Price: $44
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Aggressive
The Jakedown: With Amon-Ra St. Brown week-to-week due to an ankle injury, the Lions are set to funnel even more touches to Gibbs in the coming games. Gibbs won’t leave your starting lineup the rest of the way, even through a couple of rough matchups. Go get him.

6. JAC RB Travis Etienne (22.48% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 69 / 100
Upcoming Schedule: IND (-0.6); NYJ (+0.3); @DEN (-1.0)
Last Week’s Median Price: $6
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Moderate
The Jakedown: Bhayshul Tuten reclaimed Jacksonville’s goalline role last week, which caps Travis Etienne’s ceiling through the end game. As such, Etienne should be rostered, but only started when necessary. He faces three neutral matchups and only one negative matchup (in Denver), so spot start duty is warranted. Just don’t go overboard. Jacksonville’s overall inconsistency will inevitably sink you.

5. BAL WR Zay Flowers (22.76% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 61 / 100
Upcoming Schedule: PIT (+2.9); @CIN (-1.4); NE (+5.2)
Last Week’s Median Price: $2
End-Game Player: NO
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Mild
The Jakedown: Zay Flowers was the perfect Guillotine player through the first 12 weeks of the season, and for that, I’m grateful. Across that stretch, Flowers scored between 10 and 15 fantasy points in seven of nine games, boasting one of the lowest standard deviations we’ve seen from a player. However, Flowers does not offer the ceiling we need for the end game. He hasn’t scored since Week 1 and isn’t likely to score again given Baltimore’s recent struggles on offense. It’s time to say goodbye.

4. MIN WR Justin Jefferson (22.88% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 63 / 100
Upcoming Schedule: WAS (+3.1); @DAL (+7.8); @NYG (+4.3)
Last Week’s Median Price: $12
End-Game Player: YES, but I don’t feel good about it
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Moderate
The Jakedown: Justin Jefferson has the best schedule of any wide receiver in fantasy football the rest of the way. That’s where the positives end. However, the schedule is so good that he’s still worth rostering through the end game in hopes that J.J. McCarthy and Kevin O’Connell can figure out how to effectively get their all-world receiver the ball. He should not be in starting lineups until we see at least one positive performance.

3. PHI RB Saquon Barkley (26.62% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 81 / 100
Upcoming Schedule: @LAC (-0.3); LV (+1.6); @WAS (+1.3)
Last Week’s Median Price: $47
End-Game Player: YES, but I don’t feel good about this one either
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Moderate
The Jakedown: Barkley has not posted an RB1 performance since Philly’s Week 9 bye, but is still worth an end-game roster spot thanks to his 81 Utilization Score. His schedule is very friendly down the stretch. The Eagles’ inconsistent offense may not be able to take full advantage, but Barkley is worth the chance given the other options at the position.

2. SEA WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (28.55% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 91 / 100
Upcoming Schedule: @ATL (+1.1); IND (-0.6); LAR (-4.3)
Last Week’s Median Price: $128
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Aggressive
The Jakedown: It took until the last eligible week of the season, but JSN has made this list for the first time. This is why you saved your FAAB. I’ll bet JSN bounces back against a Falcons defense that’s allowed monster games to Tetairoa McMillan and Adonai Mitchell the last couple of weeks. The current WR1 in Guillotine isn’t going to leave your starting lineup the rest of the way.

1. DET WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (31.85% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 82* / 100 (*excluding last week due to injury)
Upcoming Schedule: DAL (+3.1); @LAR (-4.3); PIT (-1.4)
Last Week’s Median Price: $106
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Moderate
The Jakedown: It’s unfortunate that Amon-Ra St. Brown went down just before a dream matchup with Dallas. Instead, St. Brown will either return against the most difficult matchup for fantasy receivers or you’ll eat two zero burgers ahead of a not-so-easy matchup with Pittsburgh. I would be wary of starting him in his first game back, too, so even a moderate bid strategy might be too much. Let your leaguemates waste their FAAB and grab somebody with a clean bill of health at present.

Waiver Advice for “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of players who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for Guillotine usage. They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

NYJ WRs Adonai Mitchell and John Metchie—Jake recommends $1 each

The Jets’ passing attack is barely productive enough to support one viable fantasy receiver, let alone two. Last week, it was Mitchell; the week prior, it was Metchie. Garrett Wilson may return next week—or not at all—so these two are only desperation dart throws during this last bye week.

DET WR Isaac TeSlaa—Jake recommends $1

Isaac TeSlaa was the primary playing time beneficiary after St. Brown went down last week. The rookie hasn’t shown us anything outside of a handful of highlight-reel catches that indicate he can be relied upon in ARSB’s absence, even in a potential shootout with Dallas this week.

NO WR Devaughn Vele—Jake recommends $1

This sicko Saints fan was in attendance at Saints-Dolphins last week to witness the greatness that is Devaughn Vele. He’s clearly emerged as a favorite target of Tyler Shough, but that should not mean much for us in this format. Hopefully he can propel my #SFB15 team to the quarterfinals with CMC on bye.

Players Mentioned in this Article

SaquonBarkley
RBPHI
PPG
8.53
JaxonSmith-Njigba
WRSEA
PPG
11.78
Proj
15.67
JahmyrGibbs
RBDET
PPG
12.49
Amon-RaSt. Brown
WRDET
PPG
11.78