Week 14 Guillotine Leagues™ Rankings: Lamar Jackson, Jameson Williams, and More

We have made it through another week of the NFL season. It was a long one, with three games on Thanksgiving, one on Friday, and a full Sunday/Monday slate, but there are now just five weeks left between us and the start of the playoffs. It should be an excellent finish, with only a handful of teams in each conference already eliminated from contention.

Just because the season is winding down doesn’t mean your fantasy season has to. Guillotine Leagues™ are still going strong, with new ones forming each week. We’ll also have contests for the postseason, so there are still plenty of ways to get your fantasy fix.

Let’s dive into some of the players who have moved up and down our Rest of Season Guillotine Rankings heading into Week 14.

The End of An Era?

Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (ADP: 22.8, ROS: 52)

What in the world do you do with Lamar Jackson at this point? At his best, we know what Jackson is capable of. He’s a two-time MVP winner, and he has led the league in fantasy scoring on multiple occasions. That includes last year, when he led all players with an average of 25.6 fantasy points per game.

But Jackson simply does not look like the same player at this point. He missed four games earlier this year with an injury, and he has not provided the same rushing potential since returning to the lineup. Over his past five outings, he’s averaged just 19.6 rushing yards and 6.2 carries per game.

The volume hasn’t been dreadful, but his efficiency has taken a massive hit. He’s averaged an insane 6.0 yards per carry for his career, but he’s at just 3.1 since returning from injury.

If Jackson isn’t going to provide his typical production with his legs, he doesn’t have the passing numbers to make up for it. Jackson has become an extremely efficient passer at this point in his career, but he’s rarely going to be a guy who goes for 300+ yards with multiple touchdowns. He did throw for four scores vs. the Dolphins in his first game back, but since then, he’s combined for just one touchdown vs. his past four opponents. He’s averaged just 192 passing yards per game over that stretch, and he ranks a mind-boggling 30th in PPR points per game at quarterback from Week 9 on.

Last week’s performance vs. the Bengals was the most concerning. Cincinnati has hemorrhaged fantasy points all year, yet Jackson managed just 7.5. It was his third straight game with fewer than eight, so he’s sent a lot of teams to the executioner over that time frame.

Jackson is still the consensus No. 6 QB in our ROS Guillotine Ranks, but that feels way too aggressive for me personally. If he can’t break out vs. the Bengals, why should things be any different vs. the Steelers?

At this point, Jackson feels like an ideal QB2 stash on your bench. Hopefully, he’ll show some signs of life over the next few weeks, and maybe you can feel comfortable starting him in Week 16 or 17. That said, the idea of starting him currently is absolutely terrifying.

Time to Shine

Jameson Williams, WR, Lions (ADP: 64.5, ROS: 32)

For most of his career, Jameson Williams has been the prototypical “boom-or-bust” fantasy receiver. He’ll have weeks where he goes off for 100+ yards and a touchdown, and he’ll have others where he fails to catch a single pass. That’s been on display recently, with Williams going for at least 19.7 PPR points in back-to-back games before dipping to zero in Week 11.

However, the injury to Amon-Ra St. Brown changes things. We’re still not 100% sure what St. Brown’s status will be vs. the Cowboys, but he appears to be trending toward sitting. He did not practice on Tuesday, and the fact that this game will be played on Thursday doesn’t give him much time to turn things around.

With St. Brown exiting early last week, Williams moved into an alpha role for Detroit. He racked up a 40% target share vs. the Packers, and he finished with a season-high 26.9 PPR points. That kind of workload would make him a clear WR1 for fantasy purposes if St. Brown had to sit vs. the Cowboys. It’s also possible that St. Brown is forced to miss multiple weeks or rushes back too soon and suffers another injury.

That makes Williams a potential league-winner. He could be a high-end WR1 if St. Brown misses multiple games down the stretch, and he won’t cost that type of price tag to acquire. If St. Brown does return, you can simply move him to the bench. It’s all upside with minimal downside, which sounds pretty appealing to me.

Handcuffs Only

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots (ADP: 48.8, ROS: 41)

The TreVeyon Henderson bandwagon hit a major speed bump on Monday Night Football. He managed to hold off Rhamondre Stevenson last week, but it was much more of a committee in Week 13. Henderson played on 48% of the snaps and handled 44% of the carries, while Stevenson was at 61% and 48% respectively. Stevenson also had the clear edge in passing down and short-yardage opportunities, just like he has for most of the year when healthy.

It’s possible that part of that was game-script related. The Patriots jumped out to a big lead vs. the Giants, so maybe they wanted to use that contest to get Stevenson reacclimated. However, it’s also possible that he was simply limited in Week 12 because it was his first game back. Now that he’s multiple weeks removed from his injury, maybe he will be the Patriots’ RB1 down the stretch.

All of it is enough to make Henderson purely a bench player in standard Guillotine Leagues. He would have immense appeal if Stevenson were to suffer another injury, but unless that happens, he shouldn’t be anywhere near your starting lineup.

Rico Dowdle, RB, Panthers (ADP: 150.3, ROS: 49)

Everything said about Henderson goes doubly for Rico Dowdle. The two players look almost identical on paper, even down to the fact that they’re both on bye in Week 14.

Dowdle had some huge games earlier this season with Chuba Hubbard sidelined, and the team officially named him the starting running back heading into Week 9. He massively outpaced Hubbard over the next four contests, finishing with 76% of the snaps and 79% of the carries.

That said, the split was a lot more even in Week 13. In fact, Hubbard was on the field for more snaps, and the carry share was split nearly down the middle. Hubbard brings more to the table as a pass-catcher, so he logged a 78 UR Score vs. the Rams. Dowdle was at merely 57.

The fact that all that production came in a huge upset win can’t be good for Dowdle’s outlook. Unless Hubbard suffers another injury, it’s hard to imagine Dowdle going back to being the workhorse in Carolina.

Abandon Hope All Ye Who Enter Here

Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles (ADP: 4.3, ROS: 35)

Saquon Barkley has sent more Guillotine Teams to the executioner’s blade than anyone in football this season. He’s appeared on the “most-chopped” section of the CHOP podcast at a ridiculous rate.

That is the danger of stud players like Barkley when they underperform. He’s being started almost universally, so his bad weeks have more impact than the typical player. He’s also earned the benefit of the doubt in the eyes of most fantasy players, who are willing to believe that this could be the week when things turn around.

No one should believe that at this point. The Eagles’ offense is a hot mess, and Barkley is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. That’s down nearly two full yards compared to last year. It’s not entirely his fault, with the Eagles’ offensive line regressing compared to last season, but Barkley also isn’t doing much on his own, either. All of his advanced metrics are down, ranking 96th in yards after contact per attempt and 35th in broken tackles.

Now, the Eagles head to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers in Week 14. On paper, it’s not the worst matchup. The Chargers are 17th in rush defense EPA, and they’ve surrendered some big games to opposing RBs. But how can you have any faith that Barkley will turn things around now? I’d rather he be someone else’s problem.

A Bridge to the Finals

Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders (ADP: 43.7, ROS: 54)

At this point in the year, the focus typically shifts to “end-game players.” These are guys who you feel comfortable starting in the fantasy championship, almost regardless of the matchup.

Of course, you actually have to make it there first. With four teams on bye this week and a handful of potential end-gamers sidelined with injuries, you’re still going to need some guys to help you get to the finish line.

Terry McLaurin stands out as an ideal option. He returned to the lineup in Week 13, and he was limited to just a 60% route participation in his first game back. However, he was targeted on a whopping 42% of his routes run, and he finished with a 30% target share overall. He ultimately came up just short of 100 receiving yards, but his 22.6 PPR points still made him the eighth-best receiver in Week 13.

The Commanders could be getting Jayden Daniels back any week now, but their offense has remained competent even with Marcus Mariota under center. They hung tough with an elite Broncos defense on Sunday Night Football, and their schedule gets much friendlier from here on out. Week 14 vs. the Vikings isn’t a great matchup, but it’s also not terrifying. After that, McLaurin has a date with the Giants in Week 15, and he could possibly even be considered against the Cowboys in Week 17.

Christian Watson, WR, Packers (ADP: 192.3, ROS: 84)

The Packers’ receiving corps has a ton of depth, and they could get a bit deeper in Week 14. It’s possible that Jayden Reed makes his return to the lineup, which would give them five legit options at the position (including Matthew Golden).

However, Christian Watson has started to separate himself a bit from the rest of the pack. He’s had a target share of at least 34% in back-to-back games, and he finished as WR12 in Week 13. Watson has always been an excellent big-play threat, so adding a more consistent diet of targets would be extremely appealing for fantasy purposes.

The Packers’ remaining schedule isn’t quite as appealing as the Commanders', ranking as the 15th-best for receivers. Still, games vs. the Bears in two of the next three weeks stand out as above-average. Watson can definitely be used as a bridge option in those contests.

Players Mentioned in this Article

LamarJackson
QBBAL
PPG
13.63
JamesonWilliams
WRDET
PPG
8.02
Amon-RaSt. Brown
WRDET
PPG
11.78
TreVeyonHenderson
RBNE
PPG
8.93
Proj
7.35