Week 2 Guillotine Leagues™ Risk Profiles: Sit Jauan Jennings Or Face The Chop

We're on to Week 2, and we're introducing a new series for our Guillotine Leagues™ community where Paul Charchian and Matt LaMarca go back and forth on players' risk profiles heading into the upcoming games. They will measure the risk for starting certain players for their upcoming matchups, as well as examining trends that are developing around the league. Occasionally they'll agree, and at others they won't, but each will offer their assessments for their arguments. All being done in the name of helping you avoid the chop.

Well, that didn’t exactly go as expected. There are always some surprises in the first week of the NFL season, but it seems like we got more than usual in 2025. A few quick takeaways for your Guillotine Leagues:

1. Stud RBs > Stud WRs

We’ll see if this holds true all season. It almost certainly won’t, but for one week at least, running backs ruled the day. We saw some massive letdown performances from the top receivers in fantasy, with Nico Collins, A.J. Brown and Ja'Marr Chase all among the most chopped players in Week 1. Brian Thomas Jr. also could’ve very easily found himself on that list, catching just one of his seven targets, but he managed to salvage his fantasy stock with a rushing touchdown.

Meanwhile, all of the highly drafted RBs provided some semblance of value. Some were better than others, but drafting a running back in the first round meant you almost certainly advanced to Week 2.

2. Scoring was down overall

Before the two primetime contests on Sunday and Monday Night Football, points were at a massive premium. The under went 12-2 through the first 14 games of the year, before the Ravens and Bills combined for more than 80 points and Vikings-Bears eclipsed 50. Ironically, the highest-scoring game on the Sunday main slate came from the Jets and Steelers, which had the lowest over/under of the day.

This isn’t exactly a new development. For one reason or another, scoring has been down to start the year in previous seasons as well. The under was 27-20-1 through the first three weeks of the season last year, and it was 57-37 through six weeks the year prior. Scoring picked up from that point on, so hopefully, we’ll see something similar in 2025. Otherwise, it could be a long year.

3. Tight end could be brutal

We knew tight end wasn’t going to be great heading into this season. However, we didn’t know it was going to be this bad. George Kittle landed on IR, taking a top-three option at the position off the table for the next four weeks at a minimum. Mark Andrews was absolutely invisible for the Ravens, despite the team being without Isaiah Likely. Colston Loveland failed to make much of an impact in his first professional game, while T.J. Hockenson was among the 10 most-chopped players in Week 1.

Ultimately, guys like Brock Bowers and Trey McBride could be worth their weight in gold, though we’re monitoring Bowers’ knee injury heading into his Week 2 game against the Chargers. If they become available at some point, it could be worth getting a little more aggressive than usual.

With Week 1 in the books, let’s fully shift our attention to Week 2. We’ve got another full 16-game slate, which means plenty of decisions to make about the back end of your starting lineup. Standard Guillotine LeaguesTM still feature 17 teams at this point, so there are plenty of “questionable” players who are going to have to be started.

That’s the focus of this series. Let’s sift through some guys right on the fringes and try to identify which players are start-worthy and which carry too much risk. 

Sit: Dylan Sampson and Quinshon Judkins at Ravens

The Browns’ backfield looks like a headache heading into Week 2. They had a pretty even split at the position in Week 1, with Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford each playing between 45% and 52% of the team’s offensive snaps. Sampson handled the majority of the rushing attempts, while Ford handled the passing-down responsibilities. Sampson ultimately finished with 17.3 PPR points against the Bengals, which was good for a top-10 finish at the position.

However, the potential addition of Quinshon Judkins complicates things. He was the Browns’ second-round pick in 2025, and he just recently signed a fully guaranteed contract. Judkins’ status is still up in the air, but if he’s able to suit up on Sunday, it would make this backfield very crowded.

The matchup against the Ravens only makes things worse. The Ravens’ offense looked unstoppable for 55 minutes against the Bills in Week 1, rattling off 40 points with relative ease. They were one of the best offenses in football last year as well, so there’s no reason to expect much different moving forward.

If Baltimore performs at the same level in Week 2, it’s hard to imagine the Browns keeping up. They’re currently the biggest underdogs on the board at +10.5 points, which means the running game could have to be abandoned pretty quickly. With Ford playing on 86% of the long-down-and-distance snaps and 100% of the two-minute snaps last week, he could be the biggest beneficiary of a trailing game script. It makes the other two guys in the backfield much too risky.

Charch says: I differ from LaMarca in that I’d be shocked if Judkins gets on the field at all, let alone for a meaningful number of snaps. But that doesn’t change my outlook for Sampson this week, which isn’t great. The Browns’ run blocking was dreadful last week against an inferior defense, Cincinnati. Cleveland ranked 22nd in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate metric. And it ranked 29th in PFF’s run blocking metric. The Ravens just held James Cook to 3.4 yards per carry.

Start: Rhamondre Stevenson at Dolphins

We’ll see how long Rhamondre Stevenson can hold off TreVeyon Henderson in the Patriots’ backfield. Henderson is an explosive athlete, and the Patriots are pretty desperate for playmakers. They struggled to get much going on offense vs. the Raiders, so it’s possible that Henderson gets a bit more involved in Week 2.

That said, Stevenson held a pretty solid edge at the position in Week 1. He played on 66% of the team’s offensive snaps, compared to just 34% for the rookie. He also had the clear edge in designed rushing attempts, and he dominated the opportunities in the most important areas. Stevenson played on 78% of the short-yardage snaps, and he had 100% of the carries from inside the 5-yard line. He also played on the majority of third downs, so he still had plenty of opportunities.

Stevenson didn’t make the most of his chances in Week 1, but there’s no reason he can’t put together a better showing in Week 2. A matchup vs. the Dolphins could certainly help. They allowed a Colts’ offense led by Daniel Jones to score on all seven of their possessions in Week 1. They were 27th in rush defense EPA, so expect a much more productive day from Stevenson and the Patriots’ offense overall.

Charch says: If you’re not going to start Rhamondre Stevenson in this situation, why is he on your roster? Miami ranked 28th in ESPN’s Run Stuff Win Rate. And as LaMarca notes, his Week 1 usage was very promising. 

Sit: Jauan Jennings at Saints

This is a tricky one. On one hand, the 49ers really need Jauan Jennings at this point. They were already pretty thin at receiver, with Jennings and Ricky Pearsall earning the only targets at the position last week. With George Kittle now joining Brandon Aiyuk on the sidelines, the coast is clear for Jennings to take on a larger role.

Unfortunately, Jennings is dealing with an injury of his own at the moment. He suffered a shoulder injury in Sunday’s win over the Seahawks, and while his MRI came back clean, he’s still listed as day-to-day and did not practice on Wednesday. Playing injured players in Guillotine LeaguesTM is even riskier than in traditional formats. If you start Jennings and he’s forced to exit early due to an injury, there’s a possibility you’re looking at a big fat goose egg in your lineup and starting down the executioner.

Additionally, Brock Purdy is also dealing with a left shoulder and toe injuries. Early reports were that he’s going to miss 2-5 weeks, and it’s possible that the team has to go with backup Mac Jones.

Finally, even with only two receivers seeing targets for the squad in Week 1, they weren’t particularly busy. Jennings ran a route on just 67% of the team’s dropbacks, and he had just a 15% target share. Christian McCaffrey absolutely dominated the work in the passing game, earning a target on 34% of his routes run.

Add it all up, and there’s just too much risk for me here. Remember, all you have to do to survive in a Guillotine League is not be the lowest-scoring team. I’d rather play a “worse” receiver with a higher floor than potentially risk a bagel from Jennings.

Charch says: There’s no bigger Jauan Jennings fan than me, but with Mac Jones at the helm, I can’t advocate starting him in Guillotine Leagues, where the room for error is so slight. Even at full health, Jennings would be a risky move.

Start: Kayshon Boutte at Dolphins

Is it possible that Kayshon Boutte is just a good receiver? That wouldn’t have felt like a hot take when he was coming out of high school. He was a five-star prospect, who landed at “Wide Receiver University” in Baton Rouge. Unfortunately, injuries and off-field concerns caused him to flame out at LSU, and he ultimately fell to the sixth round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Boutte has had to earn his way on the field in the pros, but he’s done exactly that. He saw more responsibilities down the stretch last season, and he finished with at least 95 yards and a touchdown in two of his final three games. He followed that up with a 103-yard performance in Week 1 vs. the Raiders, and his underlying utilization looks good. Boutte led the team’s receivers with an 81% snap share and 83% route participation, and his 8 targets were tied for the most on the team.

Boutte is someone who was either drafted very late or is still available on the wire in most Guillotine Leagues, and he could provide some flex value to start the year. He’s clearly developed some chemistry with Drake Maye, and he doesn’t have a ton of competition for targets in New England. I wouldn’t expect 100+ yards every week, but there’s enough here to feel comfortable putting him in your starting lineup.

Charch says: Week 1 wasn’t a fluke. In his last four games, going back to last year obviously, Boutte has posted these lines: 

• Week 16, 2024: 5-95-1
• Week 17, 2024: 4-28-0
• Week 18, 2024: 7-117-1
• Week 1, 2025: 6-103-0

If I told you those were Ja’Marr Chase’s last four boxscores, you wouldn’t blink twice. As LaMarca correctly pointed out, Boutte has very little competition for targets. And Drake Maye is only going to get better.

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