Week 3 Guillotine Leagues™ Bidding Advice: Josh Allen, Derrick Henry And More

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your Guillotine Leagues™ bidding.

We spent a lot of time on the CHOP Podcast throughout the preseason talking about the necessity of having good tight ends.

The tight end position is a disaster, somehow even worse than last year. By my count, there are only six reliable tight ends: Tucker Kraft, Tyler Warren, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, Zach Ertz (yes, Ertz), Juwan Johnson (still available in some leagues!) and hopefully Sam LaPorta.

I say "hopefully" for LaPorta, because his problem is exactly what you saw last week: 52 points by the Lions, but only 3-26-0 for him. There's so many weapons in Detroit, sometimes he gets lost.

If you gambled on a Tier 2 or Tier 3 tight end, you're probably getting chills every Sunday. Almost every non-elite tight end we'd hoped would perform well … isn't. We've gotten one or two disastrous games from Evan Engram, Brenton Strange, Dalton Kincaid, Colston Loveland, T.J. Hockenson and David Njoku.

Compounding matters, normally safe tight ends like George Kittle and Dallas Goedert are hurt.

One of the key drafting differences in Guillotine Leagues™ is drafting a lot of tight end depth. If you'd drafted three tight ends, the later rounds could have netted you Ertz or Johnson or Harold Fannin Jr.

So, this week, you'll want to shape your tight end bids to reflect your need at the position, but also knowing that half your league is also desperate for tight end help.

Some modest self-promotion: You can find the video version of CHOP on the Fantasy Life YouTube channel.

Self-Evaluation For Guillotine Leagues Bidding Strategy

You now have two data points with which to evaluate your roster, so hopefully you can easily identify your degree of bidding need. At this early stage of the season, you're hoping to stockpile FAAB.

But if you're desperate, especially due to injury, you'll need to open the coffers.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months.

As a personal note, I'd rostered Austin Ekeler in many Guillotine Leagues™ because his PPR chops gave him a high floor. Even though Ekeler wasn't part of my end-game strategy, I was counting on his 10 PPR points to keep me going through Halloween.

In some of those Ekeler leagues, I don't have a suitable replacement and will need to spend some cash.

Broad Bidding Strategies

There’s no single way to win a Guillotine League. But I can safely say, the clearest path to a Guillotine League championship is to survive until midseason and have a lot of FAAB left. In short, save your FAAB. Except for the truly desperate, your goal is to conserve cash.

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

Elite players: These are guys who’ll be in your starting lineup for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Max your bidding on elite players at $100-$200. No more, unless you’re already truly desperate.
Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another month or so. $10-$20. Be careful here. Throwing down $20 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$5.

The 10 Most Chopped Players in Week 2

Note: I've removed Joe Burrow from the list since he's not worth a roster spot due to his December recovery timeline.

10. ARI WR MARVIN HARRISON (11.5% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 63/100
Upcoming schedule: @SF; SEA; TEN
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $5
Note: After Week 1, we'd hoped that Marvin Harrison's reliability has jumped dramatically as a sophomore. But here we are, just one week later, and his connection with Kyler Murray looks scattershot. In Guillotine Leagues, the primary directive is to avoid dud games. He's now posted single-digit PPR points in 10 of his 20 NFL games. That's horrifying. And in those 10 games, he's averaged 5 (!) PPR points.

9. BAL TE MARK ANDREWS (11.8% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 40/100
Upcoming schedule: DET; @KC; HOU
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $0
Note: It's been two brutal games for Mark Andrews, both without Isaiah Likely. Andrews did this last year and rebounded nicely. But that might be providing false hope at this point.

8. MIN RB AARON JONES (12% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 49/100
Upcoming schedule: CIN; @PIT; @CLE
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $0
Note: The Vikings' offense is in disarray, with Carson Wentz under center and two backups across the offensive line. I'm sure Kevin O'Connell will want to minimize Wentz by running the ball copiously, but the Bengals know that, too.

7. BUF WR KHALIL SHAKIR (12.4% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 44/100
Upcoming schedule: MIA; NO; NE
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $5
Note: Last year, Shakir was an incredibly dependable Guillotine asset, just like he was in Week 1, with 6 catches for 64 yards. Typical Shakir. But last week's matchup with the Jets saw him get only one target, in part because the Bills were in command throughout the game. Unless his recovery from his August high-ankle sprain is still a problem, Shakir should return to form in three easy home matchups.

6. NYJ QB JUSTIN FIELDS (12.5% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming schedule: @TB; @MIA; DAL
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $1
Note: We're just one game removed from Justin Fields playing, arguably, the best game of his career. But even before his concussion, Fields' passing looked brutal, and I was starting to fret about his chances of a dud game. Had he finished on the same trajectory, his rushing might have saved the day. And that remains the best reason to roster Fields. Coming off a concussion, I have some worries that Aaron Glenn will chose not to give Fields designed runs for a while.

5. ATL WR DRAKE LONDON (13.6% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 69/100
Upcoming schedule: @CAR; WAS; BYE
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $75
Note: We're already starting to sweat bye weeks! The Falcons are just two games removed from their Week 5 bye. I'm surprised to be talking about Drake London, considering his 15 targets in Week 1, and a very favorable matchup against an injury-ravaged Vikings defense. He wasn't charged with any drops, but he misfired on one catchable pass. He remains, by a wide margin, the safest Falcons receiver.

4. LV RB ASHTON JEANTY (14.1% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 69/100
Upcoming schedule: ; @WAS; CHI; @IND
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $100
Note: I spend much of the preseason pleading with Guillotine players to be careful with rookies. I'd hoped that Ashton Jeanty would be different, but after two bummer games—2.7 yards per carry!—and very little role in the passing offense, I'm starting to worry that Jeanty won't be the exception to the rule. Working against him has been some awful pass blocking, which might limit his third-down reps.

3. DEN WR COURTLAND SUTTON (15.2% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 60/100
Upcoming schedule: @LAC; CIN; @PHI
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $75
Note: Until Troy Franklin exploded last week, Courtland Sutton had been an incredibly reliable "alpha" receiver for Sean Payton's offense. Franklin will probably continue to ascend (see below), but Sutton should still be reliably effective in the Broncos offense. He's the only starting receiver who isn't built like a toothpick, so he'll continue to get the lion's share of end zone targets. Last year, Sutton finished tied with the second-most end zone targets.

2. BUF QB JOSH ALLEN (17.8% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming schedule: MIA; NO; NE
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $175
Note: Josh Allen almost never lands on this list. And he represents a brutally tough decision for Guillotine League players. He's great, as you know, with the upside that can carry an entire roster of underperformers. And his schedule couldn't be easier, with three straight home games against bottom-tier defenses. There's plenty of reason to bid high on Allen. But, as savvy Guillotine players know, quarterback is the most replaceable position. Just one month from now, pretty much every team will have a dependable starting quarterback, and you won't need to pay Allen's hefty price for one.

1. BAL RB DERRICK HENRY (22.3% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 62/100
Upcoming schedule: DET; @KC; HOU
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $190
Note: Because Derrick Henry doesn't catch, he's capable of these kinds of dud games. It's why Henry isn't on the same level as dual-threat runners like Jahmyr Gibbs, CMC and Bijan Robinson. Still, his mega-bust games are few and far between—his 2.3 PPR point performance was his worst in two years.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for Guillotine usage. They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

IND QB Daniel Jones—Charch recommended bidding: $10
In the opener, Daniel Jones cruised past Miami, which left me optimistic, but still cautious. Then last week, Jones looked similarly good against an elite Denver defense. I'm convinced that Jones is on pace to win Comeback Player of the Year (even though he didn't suffer an injury last year, which remains the stupidest guideline in the awards process). He'll travel to face the Texans and Rams the next two weeks.

CIN QB Jake Browning—Charch recommended bidding: $2
Facing off against a tattered Vikings defense, Jake Browning is potentially startable as soon as this week. Through two weeks, Minnesota has managed to hold both of its opposing quarterbacks in check, but with Minnesota potentially missing 10 starters on both sides of the ball, this game could be a drubbing. Browning has thrown at least one touchdown in all seven of his career starts. And he's got enough mobility to run for four scores in his last eight games. Lastly, and obviously, he's got two great targets at wide receiver, too.

WAS RB Chris Rodriquez—Charch recommended bidding: $5
With the tragic loss of Ekeler, the Commanders will need to push Chris Rodriguez (and to a lesser degree Jeremy McNichols, the best receiving back left on the roster) into a bigger role. In his two years, Rodriguez has been an effective runner for the Commanders, averaging 4.8 and 4.9 yards per carry. He's a big-bodied bulldozer, with some goal-line utility.

WAS RB Jeremy McNichols—Charch recommended bidding: $0
Stylistically, Jeremy McNichols is the closest match for Ekeler. He's the only running back on the Commanders who has NFL-level receiving chops. And much of what we liked about Ekeler was his safe PPR floor.

TEN WR Elic Ayomanor—Charch recommended bidding: $15
Kids, never throw a pass across your body, particularly from one sideline to the far side of the field. Unless it's Elic Ayomanor on the other end of the pass. The kid looks special and even the dim-minded Brian Callahan knows it. Through two weeks, he's already running 75% of the team's routes, second only to Calvin Ridley. And he's turned into Tennessee's deep threat, averaging 16 yards per pass and 104 air yards per game, more than any other rookie.

GB WR Romeo Doubs—Charch recommended bidding: $25
Doubs isn't special, but he's the safest of the Packers wideouts, especially now with Jayden Reed expected to miss 6-8 weeks. To this point, Dontayvion Wicks and Matthew Golden have only gotten spot duty—although both will see more action with Reed out. If he's going to see an uptick to, say, 7-8 targets per game, he could be a legit Guillotine asset.

DEN WR Troy Franklin—Charch recommended bidding: $15
Understandably, many of you have been cautious with the Troy Franklin-Marvin Mims combo, particularly after Week 1 when the their utilization was similar. But last week, Franklin made a major move, separating himself from Mims, dominating him in every category, including snaps, routes, targets and air yards. He's now the team leader in targets. This looks like a great opportunity to buy low on a player with years of chemistry with his quarterback.

NO TE Juwan Johnson—Charch recommended bidding: $45
Juwan Johnson is the No. 1 tight end in utilization score, and it's not close. His 97 score is nine points higher than the second highest, Trey McBride. He's run 80 routes already, more than any tight end. He also leads all tight ends in catchable passes, which is a credit to Spencer Rattler, who's looked shockingly competent. Smart fantasy managers nabbed him last week, but he's a priority add for any league that was asleep at the wheel.

GB TE Luke Musgrave – Charch recommended bidding: $0
Luke Musgrave is my favorite sneaky tight end add this week. With Reed out, the Packers are short a slot receiver. Wicks probably gets some of those reps, but Doubs and Malik Heath don't run from the slot. So, Musgrave could get a lot more looks. It's a longshot, but we're all desperate at tight end at this early stage of the season.

Week 3 Guillotine Leagues™ Bidding Advice: Josh Allen, Derrick Henry And More

Self-Evaluation For Guillotine Leagues Bidding Strategy

Broad Bidding Strategies

The 10 Most Chopped Players in Week 2

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

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