Week 4 Guillotine Leagues™ Bidding Advice: Save FAAB or Spend on Chase Brown, Malik Nabers and Others?

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding.

It was a brutal Sunday, with catastrophic injuries that almost surely shaped the outcome in your Guillotine Leagues™. There's no real positive outcomes from a vast swath of injuries, but at least you're not alone.

Anyone who rostered CeeDee Lamb, Najee Harris, James Conner or Tyrone Tracy likely spent Monday night clinging to hope for survival.

We all know injuries are inherient in football. And we accept that our Guillotine League fate will be tied, to some degree, to dodging injury. There's an element of luck to every fantasy league, and injuries are the biggest X-factor in Guillotine Leagues™.

For the survivors, we'll react to the injury news and try to find opportunities to strengthen your roster so you can survive a similar situation, should it arise.

My weekly side note: be sure to listen to the Chop Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decisions.

Self-Evaluation Ahead of Week 4 for Guillotine Leagues™

Because of the rash of injuries, there's going to be a lot of desperate bidding this week. Some of it justified.

If you weren't affected by Sunday's many injuries, it's a great week to lay in the weeds and save your FAAB. This week, you're going to make money by not spending money, putting you in a better spot down the road.

If you were affected by the injuries, and you've suddenly got a CeeDee-sized hole in your roster, first, look at your backups. At this still-early stage of the season, do you have a backup who can provide 10 PPR points, enough to help you finish second-to-last or better? And not just this week, but for multiple weeks.

If not, you'll need to spend some money. And that's OK. You can still win your league, even if you're forced to strengthen your roster now with some big-name purchases. Sure, this wasn't the plan, but stubbornly refusing to change tactics is a worse decision.

Broad Bidding Strategies

There’s no single way to win a Guillotine League. But I can safely say, the clearest path to a Guillotine League championship is to survive until mid-season and have a lot of FAAB left. In short, save your FAAB. Except for the truly desperate, your goal is to conserve cash.

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

Elite players: These are guys who’ll be on your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Max your bidding on elite players at $200. No more, unless you’re truly desperate.
Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another month or so. $10-$20. Be careful here. Throwing down $20 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$5.

The 10 Most Chopped Players in Week 3

10. LAC WR Ladd McConkey (10.6% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 61/100
Upcoming schedule: @NYG; WAS; @MIA
Last week's median price: $200
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $60
Note: Ladd's a victim of the success of his fellow receivers, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston. Both Allen and Johnston are dramatically outperforming expectations, and McConkey isn't getting the workhorse role he enjoyed last year. Among LA receivers, McConkey ranks third in all these critical categories: utilization score, targets, target percentage, air yards, end zone targets (he has none) and PPR points scored. Obviously, McConkey is a very good player and he'll have good games. But the Chargers' diversity of targets could be a season-long problem.

9. CIN RB Chase Brown (10.8% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 72/100
Upcoming schedule: @DEN; DET; @GB
Last week's median price: $225
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $50
Note: I entered the season nervous about the Bengals offensive line, but not nearly enough. They're awful. Among starting runners, Chase Brown is seeing the fewest yards before contact, -.06. Ashton Jeanty is the only other runner seeing negative yards before contact. PFF ranks the Bengals offensive line 32nd in run blocking. Teams are running on the Broncos, so maybe it gets better this week, but for now, Brown doesn't look like the End-Game player I expected.

8. KC TE Travis Kelce (10.9% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 66/100
Upcoming schedule: BAL; @JAC; DET
Last week's median price: $75
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $10
Note: Last year's most-chopped tight end is back, shortening Guillotine seasons. There's real reason for worry with Kelce, who simply isn't catching passes downfield. His ADOT has shrunk to 6.5 yards, his shortest number in 11 years! Over the past two seasons, spanning 22 games, including playoffs, Kelce has scored single-digit PPR fantasy points 11 times. That's brutal. Also a concern, Kelce ranks 58th in tight end pass blocking per PFF, second to last! If he can't pass protect, his playing time could wither. We saw a lot of Noah Gray last Sunday night.

7. BAL WR Zay Flowers (12.1% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 71/100
Upcoming schedule: @KC; HOU; LAR
Last week's median price: $150
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $45
Note: This one stings. Flowers was highly utilized in the first two Ravens games. But on Monday night, he saw bracket coverage by the Lions, and Lamar Jackson simply found other open receivers, namely Mark Andrews and Rashad Bateman. And that's been the problem throughout his career: too many dud games when he simply doesn't get enough targets. Flowers remains an excellent player—there are few guys with his skill set. I'd hoped that OC Todd Monken would manufacture looks for his best receiver, but it didn't happen last week. And Baltimore faces three-straight good secondaries.

6. PHI RB Saquon Barkley (13% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 89/100
Upcoming schedule: @TB; DEN; @NYG
Last week's median price: $503
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $190
Note: Sure, Saquon Barkley couldn't possibly repeat last year's level of success. But few expected his 2025 dropoff to be this severe. In Guillotine Leagues, he's RB14, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and negative yards over expectation. Hopefully Lane Johnson returns for this week's game against Vita Vea and a good Tampa run defense. Obviously, Barkley remains an Guillotine elite asset, but not one that you'll break the bank for.

5. NO RB Alvin Kamara (14.6% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 79/100
Upcoming schedule: @BUF; NYG; NE
Last week's median price: $178
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $75
Note: As Adam Ronis adroitly pointed out on today's Fantasy Life Sirius XM show, Kamara's moribund fantasy outings are tied directly to his baffling lack of use in Kellen Moore's passing game. In two of his three games, Kamara has had 1 or 2 catches. He hasn't had a receiving drought this bad since the end of the 2022 season. Moore had Barkley at his disposal last year, so we know the New Orleans HC can scheme the passing game to his runners.

4. NYG WR Malik Nabers (14.6% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 87/100
Upcoming schedule: LAC; @NO; PHI
Last week's median price: $301
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $110
Note: Jaxson Dart looked promising in the preseason, but he was mostly throwing short passes against vanilla, second-string defenses. Nabers is an elite talent, but I don't like the idea of risking my Guillotine season on the learning curve of a rookie passer. Look what J.J. McCarthy did with Justin Jefferson for two weeks, as an example. Ideal scenario: Dart will heave a ton of passes at his first-read receiver, Nabers.

3. CIN WR Tee Higgins (15% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 50/100
Upcoming schedule: @DEN; DET; @GB <-- Brutal
Last week's median price: $81
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $20
Note: I'd love to tell you, "things will get better for Tee Higgins," but I'm not sure I can. The Bengals offensive line is a wreck (see Chase Brown, above). Higgins is catching passes from a backup quarterback. And his upcoming schedule is brutal. The Broncos are allowing the sixth-fewest PPR points to wideouts. And the Packers are allowing the fourth-fewest points. The Lions rank 24th, but they gave up most of their fantasy points in garbage time to the Bears two games ago. Higgins feels like a flex player for the next few weeks.

2. WAS QB Jayden Daniels (15.1% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming schedule: @ATL; @LAC; CHI
Last week's median price: $101
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $30
Note: Daniels is an oddball player to appear on this list, but sometimes non-starting players appear here. Sometimes it's because users were asleep at the wheel and left him in lineups. But more often, it's because of the failure rate of the backup quarterbacks who got inserted into lineups. People who pivoted to Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud, Jake Browning, Jordan Love, Bryce Young, Spencer Rattler or Michael Penix … may have gotten chopped. I don't love the next couple of games on the schedule for Daniels, and I worry about whether he'll be able to run on his gimpy knee when he returns.

1. DAL WR CeeDee Lamb (21% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 70/100
Upcoming schedule: GB; @NYJ; @CAR
Last week's median price: $401
End game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $25
Note: In Guillotine Leagues, where every week could be your last, we don't have the luxury of time. So, there aren't many players I'd dare carry for a month waiting for a high-ankle sprain to heal. But Lamb's an elite player, and I'll throw out a few bucks, and hope I can wait out his return. At only a $25 bid, even if I have to drop him before his return, it's not a major drain of my cash.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for Guillotine usage. They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

LV QB Geno Smith—Charch recommends: $1
To my eye, Smith hasn't looked great, but he's a strong Week 4 streaming option for anyone looking for help at the position. He'll face the injury-ravaged Bears defense, dealing with injuries to T.J. Edwards, Kyler Gordon, Jaylon Jones and Jaylon Johnson. They've allowed a league-worst 8 passing touchdowns (5 to Jared Goff).

MIN QB Carson Wentz—Charch recommends: $0
Carson Wentz wasn't asked to do too much in the Vikings drubbing over the Bengals last week. He threw just 20 passes, many of them pretty safe. He'll get back Jordan Addison in time to face an injury-battered Steelers defense. The Steelers have allowed multiple touchdowns to quarterbacks in every game. The Vikings are 8-0 in Europe games.

ARI RB Trey Benson—Charch recommends: $175
With James Conner's tragic season-ending foot injury, Benson moves to a workhorse role in the Cardinals offense. Coming out of college, I really liked Benson. He's a power back with some wiggle and decent speed. He's looked markedly improved this year, getting more work and averaging six yards per carry.

And he can catch a little.

Benson's got the upside to provide nearly the same production as Conner, which makes him an RB2 going forward. He's going to be expensive, and very possibly worth it.

HOU RB Woody Marks—Charch recommends: $20
It's only been three weeks, and rookie Woody Marks is already getting meaningful work in Houston. In fairness, Nick Chubb has looked pretty good, and I'm not suggesting that Marks is going to pass Chubb on the depth chart. But Marks has better hands than Chubb and he could become an Austin Ekeler-style Guillotine contributor, chipping in 10ish PPR points every week. He's got a very favorable matchup this week against a Tennessee defense that's allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs. His Utilization Score has steadily increased every week.

HOU WR Christian Kirk—Charch recommends: $5
Last Sunday, Christian Kirk finally made his return from a month-long hamstring injury. He didn't do a lot, but his playing time (and 8 targets!) firmly cemented his status as the team's No. 2 receiver. He'll face the Titans this week. They've got a solid slot corner, Roger McCreary, so I don't know that you'll want to start him immediately, but it's easy to envision Kirk as routine 10 PPR-point producer.

SEA WR Tory Horton—Charch recommends: $1
Horton is coming off a big game, but as you already know, in Guillotine Leagues, it's wise to be skeptical of rookies. He's sharing snaps with Cooper Kupp, which I don't love. But at this stage of Kupp's (previously terrific) career, Horton might be better than Kupp. Maybe a lot. Guillotine Leagues don't give you the luxury of time, but maybe it won't take long before Horton is Seattle's true No. 2 receiver.

DAL WR Jalen Tolbert—Charch recommends: $1
CeeDee Lamb is expected to miss over a month, which should provide starter's minutes to Tolbert. He won't be more than a third receiving option for Dak Prescott, but he's got some downfield juice that the always-trailing Cowboys need. I wouldn't start him this week against Green Bay, but with starter's minutes coming, he might be worth a speculative add.

LAC TE Oronde Gadsden—Charch recommends: $0
In a do-or-die format like Guillotine Leagues, I can't really advocate for a rookie tight end coming off his first start. But I like to offer at least one cheap tight end each week, and Gadsden looked really promising last week, filling in for Will Dissly. He's athletic and mobile, effectively a heavy wide receiver playing tight end. As we've learned this year, if there's one position that needs depth, it's tight end.

Week 4 Guillotine Leagues™ Bidding Advice: Save FAAB or Spend on Chase Brown, Malik Nabers and Others?

Self-Evaluation Ahead of Week 4 for Guillotine Leagues™

Broad Bidding Strategies

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

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