Tight End Rankings for Week 1: David Njoku, A.J. Barner and More Freedman's Favorites
Stuck at tight end and looking for some Week 1 magic? (already??) Here's why Matthew Freedman is taking a deeper look at A.J. Barner (and four more tight ends to consider)
This is my 10th season writing the weekly piece now known as Freedman Favorites, which this year will be split into four separate positional breakdowns (QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs).
In the olden days, my articles were intentional tomes. I tried to cram into them every actionable insight I could find.
Now, I strive for brevity—for the sake of my readers, editors, family, and sanity. I enjoy beating dead horses, but not everyone shares my sickness.
For the past few years, not unlike a '90s rock band playing an unplugged set, I've steadfastly endeavored to strip everything down to its essential purple core. (Yes, that's a Stone Temple Pilots reference.)
Instead of talking about all the players in a slate, I now focus on the guys I like. And instead of giving you 5-8 data points on a player, I now give the 2-3 most important.
The older I get, the more valuable I realize time is—and I don't want to waste it for anyone with a piece longer than necessary.
With that in mind, let's get into the Week 1 QB edition of Freedman's Favorites. You can also find these other Week 1 Freedman's Favorites:
But first, as always, some notes.
Week 1 Tight End Rankings
In this piece I highlight some TEs I expect to perform better than they usually do. Basically, these are guys I'm upgrading this week.
Rankings, Projections & Newsletter: I think of this piece as a companion to my weekly rankings and my weekly projections, which is where any updated opinions will manifest after article submission. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life Newsletter.
Access: To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Schedule: I plan to abide by the following rankings and projections schedule this season.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better. Not bad.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Cohesion: While my positional breakdowns are published separately, I think of them as comprising one larger whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 1 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).
Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Freedman's Favorite Week 1 TEs
David Njoku (Browns) vs. Bengals
I've been talking about David Njoku for months as my favorite TE pick in fantasy drafts.
I selected him in both of my recent mocks (via our Gopuff Draft Champion Simulator).
I had an aggressive outlook on Njoku this preseason—but my gut agrees with his projection.
Over the past two seasons, he has played 18 games without former QB Deshaun Watson (Achilles). In these Watson-less contests, he has 107-1,085-9 receiving on 167 targets.
And in his six previous games with QB Joe Flacco in 2023, he had 37-483-4 receiving on 56 targets and a position-best 95 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
So I'm high on Njoku anyway: With little proven pass-catching depth behind No. 1 WR Jerry Jeudy, the Browns could funnel 10+ targets to Njoku in any given game.
And I especially like him this week against the Bengals, who last year were No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+4.1).
A.J. Barner (Seahawks) vs. 49ers
This one is gross, I know. But if you're in a really deep league or play with TE-premium scoring, A.J. Barner might be a streaming option if you're already desperate at the position.
Rookie Elijah Arroyo is the Seahawks TE that fantasy drafters fancy most, but—based on Barner's preseason usage—he's the clear No. 1 TE in the offense.
And that's now an offense without former WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and No. 1 TE Noah Fant. An offense that just cut WR Marquez-Valdes Scantling. An offense starting Day 3 rookie WR Tory Horton. An offense with injury-addled Cooper Kupp.
In some games this year, Barner could be the No. 2 target earner on this team behind No. 1 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
It's possible.
Why not this week—when he's got such a great matchup?
This offseason, SS Talanoa Hufanga left the 49ers in free agency, and FS Malik Mustapha (knee, PUP) is out with an injury.
As a result, the 49ers are rolling with SS Jason Pinnock and FS Marques Sigle as their Week 1 starters.
Oh baby.
Last year with the Giants, Pinnock allowed 10.0 yards per target and had a 45.5 coverage grade (per PFF). And Sigle is a Round 5 rookie.
I'm not saying Barner will go off in this game.
I'm saying that if he's ever to go off, this is the spot for it to happen.
The Hot Route
Brock Bowers (Raiders) at Patriots: You don't need me to tell you to start Bowers, but the 2024 first-team All-Pro could get 2025 started with a bang. The Pats just cut FS Jabrill Peppers, and last year they were No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.183, per RBs Don't Matter). Their Week 1 starters are SS Craig Woodson (Day 3 rookie) and FS Jaylinn Hawkins (journeyman with 56.3 coverage grade last year).
Hunter Henry (Patriots) vs. Raiders: Last year Henry was the No. 4 TE in share of air yards (21%), and the Raiders were No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (11.9). Given that they retained DC Patrick Graham, I don't expect to see radical improvement from their secondary. Their Week 1 starters are exploitable: SS Chris Smith is a special teamer with 13 NFL coverage snaps, and FS Isaiah Pola-Mao last year had a 45.1 coverage grade and allowed 11.0 yards per target.
Darren Waller (Dolphins) at Colts: Maybe Waller will be fresh in Week 1 after taking a year away from the NFL, and he's at least stepping into the role that gave Jonnu Smith a career-best 88-884-8 receiving campaign last season. New DC Lou Anarumo's Bengals defense last year allowed the largest fantasy boost to TEs (+4.1) … and the Colts were No. 2 (+3.7).
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
