The Safest Picks In Every Round of a Guillotine Leagues™ Draft for 2025

My daughter is attending college to become an actuary, so maybe risk management is baked into our DNA. But even if you're not a member of the Society of Actuaries (or their rival association, the Casualty Actuarial Society—the hate runs deep between those two, I assure you), you should be drafting your Guillotine League™ roster with risk management at the top of your mind.

In your Guillotine Leagues™ draft, you're looking for safe, reliable, every-week producers. High-risk, high-variance players work against that goal. Yes, you can take a few high-risk players. But you have to balance those players against the safe weekly producers.

Last week, I talked through the most dangerous picks you could possibly make in every round of your Guillotine League™ draft.

Today, you get the other side of the coin. Drafting from roughly the middle of each round, I'm going to identify the safest possible picks in every round.

Safest Picks For A Guillotine Leagues™ Draft In 2025

Round 1's Safest Player – BAL RB Derrick Henry (ADP 15)

The last time anyone regretted drafting Derrick Henry was 2017, when he was locked into a (absurd, in retrospect) timeshare with DeMarco Murray. Since then, he's been as reliable as any player, rarely missing games, and helping Guillotine League™ drafters with workhorse usage and touchdowns.

Last year, Henry proved even safer as a Raven than he'd been as a Titan. In 19 Ravens games, including playoffs, Henry topped 10.5 PPR points 18 times. Incredible.

Henry's lack of receiving gives him a smidgeon of risk, but the rest of his usage is so dependable, he's a highly safe selection in the middle of the first round.

Round 2's Safest Player – LAR RB Kyren Williams (ADP 32)

If Kyren Williams caught more passes, he'd be a first-rounder. But even with a career average of two receptions per game, Williams has proven to be an incredibly safe Guillotine League™ point provider. Over Williams' last 26 games, he's managed 10+ PPR points 24 times. Unreal. And he hasn't had a single game with fewer than 8.0 PPR points since 2022, when he was a backup.

Not that there was much doubt, but two weeks ago, the Rams cemented his status with a fat new three-year contract extension.

Round 3's Safest Player – PHI QB Jalen Hurts (ADP 44)

I consider myself a chronicler of Guillotine League™ history, and Jalen Hurts is probably the single safest selection in the history of the game.

His rushing touchdowns give Hurts both an ultra-high floor and a top-heavy ceiling. In 18 full games last year, including playoffs, Hurts had zero chop-worthy games. Zero.

Excepting Week 14, when he got knocked out in the first quarter, Hurts never finished a game below QB19 all year. And he finished as a top-four fantasy quarterback seven different times. Amazing.

Round 4's Safest Player – CLE WR Jerry Jeudy (ADP 71)

Last year, once Deshaun Watson was finally out of the way, Jerry Jeudy exploded, despite the inconsistent quarterbacking of Jameis Winston, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Bailey Zappe. From Week 8 forward, Jeudy was WR8 in PPR points and WR10 in Utilization Score! Exclamation point warranted!

Kevin Stefanski announced Joe Flacco as the team's starter, a boon for Jeudy, since he won't have to absorb the learning curve that Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders would likely entail.

Round 5's Safest Player – MIN TE T.J. Hockenson (ADP 86)

J.J. McCarthy is an X-factor, adding some risk to Hockenson's 2025 evaluation, but it's hard to envision him flopping in a Kevin O'Connell offense. I was already feeling confident about Hockenson's prospects of a big season, but with Jordan Addison's three-game suspension, Hockenson feels even safer, particularly in Guillotine Leagues™, where the first month of the season is critical.

Often, we see young quarterbacks dump off passes to their tight ends when the first reads are covered or when the pocket breaks down. I see a lot of targets coming Hockenson's way.

Now in the second year off his torn ACL, Hockenson should resume the form of 2023, when he scored 10 PPR points in 14 of 15 games before suffering his injury.

Round 6's Safest Player – NYG RB Tyrone Tracy (ADP 96)

In Round 6 of 18-team Guillotine League™ drafts, it's hard to find any team's clear No.1 runner. Fortunately, Tracy is available and comfortably atop the Giants depth chart.

In his second year, Tracy could/should be improved, particularly when you remember, he's a converted college wide receiver who only had 146 career rushes in college and 192 last year. He spent last year learning the running back position on the job. Even with those disadvantages, he averaged a respectable 4.4 yards per carry despite negative quarterbacking and a broken offensive line.

Yes, Cam Skattebo will vulture all the short touchdowns. But, with his receiving chops, Tracy should see a jump in receptions from last year, when he (weirdly) averaged just 2.6 receptions and 19 receiving yards per game. I can see Tracy chipping in six to eight PPR points per game through his receptions alone.

Round 7's Safest Player – HOU WR Christian Kirk (ADP 120)

There are few NFL starting wideouts less exciting than Christian Kirk. But my exercise eschews star players for safety, and Kirk should bring reliable points to your Guillotine Leagues™ roster. Kirk is the clear-cut No. 2 wideout for a competent (and sometimes explosive) Houston passing game. If you think C.J. Stroud will finish around his two-year average of 3,900 passing yards and 22 touchdowns, even when you subtract Nico Collins' numbers, there's a lot of productivity left for Kirk as the clear second man in the pecking order.

Round 8's Safest Player – NE RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP 129)

Everyone's fixated on rookie TreVeyon Henderson, and understandably so. He looks fantastic. But, in all probability, the Patriots are going to employ a timeshare. In Josh McDaniels' 18 years as a head coach or offensive coordinator, he's employed a timeshare in 17 seasons. The only exception was his first year, when he inherited Steven Jackson.

Stevenson labored through a difficult season last year, but he was playing hurt and running behind the league's worst offensive line. Everything about the Patriots offense looks better this year, and Stevenson should get enough carries to help you avoid the chopping block.

Round 9's Safest Player – NE WR DeMario Douglas

I'm not going to try to foist any sizzle into this pick, but we're already 150 picks deep into our draft, and I'm just looking for guys who can score 10 PPR points and keep me alive in September. And this roster needs a wideout.

The case for DeMario Douglas looks like this:

He's a third-year receiver, a point in many career arcs when receivers blossom.
Drake Maye played gallantly last season and figures to get better as a sophomore.
The Patriots offensive line was the league's worst last year and is likely to be much improved thanks to the addition of first-round left tackle Will Campbell and two more non-awful starters, Garrett Bradbury and Morgan Moses.
In the second half of 2024, Douglas started grooving with Maye, averaging 4 catches and 40 yards per game. That's 8 PPR points per game, a number that's likely to improve to 10-12 PPR points this season.

Round 10's Safest Player – WAS RB Austin Ekeler (ADP 167)

Austin Ekeler's 10th-round ADP represents an absurd misunderstanding of the Guillotine League™ scoring system by the drafting public. Last year I drafted Ekeler in nearly all my leagues and he was pivotal in keeping me alive in September and October, after which I replaced him with higher upside guys.

Because he can catch, Ekeler is a very valuable PPR asset, quietly chipping in 6-10 PPR points every game just with his receiving. Throw in 30ish rushing yards, and Ekeler will help your team avoid the chopping block for two months.

Players Mentioned in this Article

DerrickHenry
RBBAL
PPG
10.03
JalenHurts
QBPHI
PPG
11.36
KyrenWilliams
RBLAR
PPG
12.14
Proj
11.83
JerryJeudy
WRCLE
PPG
5.66