Week 13 Guillotine Leagues™️ Bidding Advice: Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor and More

Welcome to Week 13, Guillotine Leaguers! Every Thanksgiving, my family puts a paper table cloth down, and after dinner we each write down the things for which we’re thankful. We’ll then re-use that tablecloth year over year, reminiscing on how times have changed, and often how they’ve stayed the same. Last year, I wrote Lamar Jackson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase and Brock Bowers. This year, I’ll write Josh Allen, Christian McCaffrey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Trey McBride. What, you expected me to write "family" or something? No, winning my Guillotine Leagues™ is more important. So, let’s get into how we’ll do that this week.

Week 13 Guillotine Leagues™ Waiver Wire Bidding Advice

Self-Evaluation: Do You Have a Short-Term or Long-Term Roster Problem?

Over the course of this column, you'll see a lot of specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks. It’s worth noting that there’s only one more bye week remaining, but quite a few key players have a Week 14 bye. Ensure to set your lineup for next week in order to accurately self-evaluate.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for the rest of the year.

Broad Bidding Strategies

How much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

End-game players: These are guys who’ll be in your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. I’m alright with bumping your max bid up to $250 on these players at this point.
Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another week or so, possibly through the Week 14 bye. $10-$20. Be careful here. Throwing down $20 twice a week will drain your funds in short order. At this point in the season, you should not be chasing this level of player unless you are short on FAAB. Dream bigger.
Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $0-$5.

Double-check your league’s settings, too. If your league, like many, does not allow bidding on chopped players ahead of Week 15 and onwards, you should mostly drain your budget ahead of that deadline.

The 10 Most Chopped Players From Week 12

Some things to note on the data you’ll see below:

Utilization Scores will be limited to the last four weeks only. This gives us a better picture of how the player is performing right now.
Upcoming schedules will include the opponents’ Fantasy Boost to their respective position in parentheses per our DvP tool.

10. MIA RB De’Von Achane (18.74% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 98
Upcoming Schedule: NO (-1.3); @NYJ (-0.1); @PIT (-2.1)
Last Week’s Median Price: $100
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $230
The Jakedown: Over the last four weeks, De’Von Achane’s 98 Utilization Score trails only Brock Bowers, Trey McBride and Christian McCaffrey. He’s a quintessential end-game player, with a secure, valuable role and relatively soft schedule. The Dolphins have been heating up, too; over the last four weeks, they’ve posted 0.13 EPA/play and a 45% success rate compared to -0.21 and 40.2% respectively prior to that stretch. With head coach and play caller Mike McDaniel’s job security guaranteed through the end of the season, you can confidently start Achane the rest of the way.

9. TB WR Emeka Egbuka (18.77% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 75/100
Upcoming Schedule: ARI (+1.0); NO (-1.3); ATL (+1.4)
Last Week’s Median Price: $50
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $40
The Jakedown: While I consider Emeka Egbuka an end-game player purely based on role, I would not be as aggressive as I normally would this week given Baker Mayfield’s shoulder injury. Should Mayfield miss any time, backup Teddy Bridgewater should be able to keep the offense afloat. However, Bridgewater is not nearly as aggressive down the field, which will cap Egbuka’s ceiling. The quarterback concerns combined with the recent string of lackluster boxscores limit my excitement about seeing Egbuka on the waiver wire this week.

8. BAL QB Lamar Jackson (20.42% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming Schedule: CIN (+5.2); PIT (+2.8); @CIN (+5.2)
Last Week’s Median Price: $25
End-Game Player: YES, unless he flops this week
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $10
The Jakedown: I am down to my last straw with Lamar Jackson, who’s clearly hobbled by the myriad maladies he’s accrued through the season. So, he’s getting the mid-tier player bid treatment. If he cannot come through with a big outing against the Bengals, who allow the most fantasy points to literally everybody, I’m done. That is, until I check the schedule and see he gets the Bengals again in a couple of weeks. Then, I will cut my last straw in half and say that I am still down to my last straw.

7. IND RB Jonathan Taylor (20.54% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 88/100
Upcoming Schedule: HOU (-1.8); @JAC (-2.8); @SEA (-2.1)
Last Week’s Median Price: $221
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $250
The Jakedown: “Process over results!” I scream to myself as the wife and kids I don’t have pack their metaphorical bags and leave me. I’m coming down a little from last week’s bid amount; there aren’t eight running backs you’d start over Jonathan Taylor down the stretch, but there may be four. Maybe I shouldn’t have shrugged off Indy’s challenging schedule so easily as teams start to figure out the Daniel Jones and Shane Steichen tomfoolery. Still, this is JT, and he’s not going to be on this list every week.

6. CHI RB D’Andre Swift (20.73% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 63/100
Upcoming Schedule: @PHI (-0.8); @GB (-2.2); CLE (-3.7)
Last Week’s Median Price: $7
End-Game Player: NO
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $5
The Jakedown: Kyle Monangai seemingly took the 1A role from Swift last week, pacing the Bears backfield in snaps rate, rush share and route participation. You can’t start a 1B in your Guillotine League at this point, especially not against arguably the three most talented front sevens in the league in Philly, Green Bay and Cleveland. Swift is purely a desperation FLEX option.

5. HOU WR Nico Collins (21.74% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 87/100
Upcoming Schedule: @IND (+4.0); @KC (-4.3); ARI (-2.4)
Last Week’s Median Price: $53
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $75
The Jakedown: DeMeco Ryans was noncommittal on Monday when asked if C.J. Stroud would clear concussion protocol in time for this week’s matchup in Indy, which raises some question marks about the severity of his injury. Teams around the league have been very shady with injury news this season, so I’ve baked some trepidation into the recommended bid. What doesn’t concern me is last week’s season-low 14% target share. I’m chalking that up to our old friend, Variance, and focusing on the high utilization.

4. LAR RB Kyren Williams (22.35% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 71/100
Upcoming Schedule: @CAR (+1.7); @ARI (+1.0); DET (-3.7)
Last Week’s Median Price: $75
End-Game Player: YES, barely
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $70
The Jakedown: Kyren Williams is still the lead back in Los Angeles, but is not worth an aggressive bid. He’s a touchdown-dependent back, finishing as RB30 or worse in games in which he does not score. That’s bad news for a player who’s at best the team’s third option at the goal line behind Davante Adams, and now, Blake Corum. Corum has out-snapped Williams inside the 5-yard line each of the last three weeks.

3. NE WR Stefon Diggs (23.80% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 62/100
Upcoming Schedule: NYG (+5.1); BYE; BUF (-0.6)
Last Week’s Median Price: $16
End-Game Player: NO
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $2
The Jakedown: Stefon Diggs is not a good Guillotine asset; his role is far too inconsistent. He’s run 75% or more of the Patriots routes in 4 of 12 games, and predictably finished as a WR2 or better in those games. In all other games, he’s finished as a WR3 or far worse. Last week’s season-low 54% route participation is more in line with a WR4. This is the type of player that will sink you ahead of the end game. Will he be on the field enough to take advantage of this week’s plus matchup? Who knows. Even if he does, you’ll eat a zero burger with the bye next week.

2. DET WR Jameson Williams (23.86% chop rate)

Utilization Score: doesn’t matter
Upcoming Schedule: doesn’t matter
Last Week’s Median Price: doesn’t matter
End-Game Player: ABSOLUTELY NOT, STOP DOING THIS TO YOURSELF
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $0
The Jakedown: Jameson Williams being this high on this list means many of you fell for it again. I’m with you. We must be stronger. Just don’t do it anymore. I don’t even want to give you stats to tell you why not to believe anymore. I’ll let last week’s 0 speak for itself. I promise you’re going to see the Cowboys on the schedule in Week 14 and want to do it again. Just. Don’t. Do. It. It’s not worth it. If you ever want to start Jameson Williams in your Guillotine League at any point, I will personally recommend another WR for you to start on Twitter: @jakenagy98.

1. BUF QB Josh Allen (27.34% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming Schedule: @PIT (+2.8); CIN (+5.2); @NE (+2.5)
Last Week’s Median Price: $55
End-Game Player: YES
Jake’s Recommended Bid Amount: $50
The Jakedown: Josh Allen has popped up on this list more than I’d have thought this season, but the Houston Texans will do that to you. Thankfully, Allen’s next three opponents all offer top-10 fantasy boosts to quarterbacks, so we’ll be back to our regularly scheduled Josh Allening. It’s worth noting his last two matchups against Cleveland and Philly are tough ones, so I’d have a backup plan with softer matchups for those weeks in place.

Waiver Wire Advice for “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of players who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for Guillotine usage. They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

NO RB Devin Neal—Jake recommends $5

Devin Neal is going to be at the top of a lot of waiver wire columns this week, but I’m a Saints fan and I’m here to tell you to pump the brakes. I’m one of the few sickos who’s watched every Saints game this season, and at this point, Taysom Hill has to have naked pictures of the entire front office. Hill, not Neal, led the Saints backfield in carries after Alvin Kamara went down last week. I doubt Kamara returns this season, but he might. Even if not, the New Orleans offense doesn’t offer enough scoring opportunities for Neal to be a legitimate Guillotine asset.

CIN WR Andrei Iosivas - Jake recommends $3

Due to the concussion Tee Higgins sustained last week, Andrei Iosivas will serve as the Bngals’ de facto WR2 for the second consecutive week. He’s never flashed any sort of ceiling, but could spot start for you. The return of Joe Burrow could help him improve upon his 4-catch, 61-yard outing last week.

TEN WR Chimere Dike—Jake recommends $1

This guy’s just fun to watch, isn’t he? I appreciate that he’s going to get the Tennessee Titans a first-team All-Pro nod as a returner. With Calvin Ridley done for the year and Elic Ayomanor nursing a hamstring injury, Dike is the only game in town for Cam Ward, who flashed brilliance against a tough Seattle defense last week.

NYJ WR John Metchie—Jake recommends $1

Similar to Dike, John Metchie is one of the worst WR1s of all time. Don’t expect much, but Tyrod Taylor can at least push the ball downfield.

STASH THIS GUY: CHI WR Luther Burden—Jake recommends $1

Luther Burden has overtaken Olamide Zaccheaus as Chicago’s WR3, and has also forced a bit of a rotation with top wideouts Rome Odunze and DJ Moore. Burden has the draft pedigree and athletic profile of a late-season breakout.