Why It's Time To Start Adjusting Your FAAB Bidding Strategy In Guillotine Leagues
Now that we're in Week 7, how should your FAAB strategy change? Plus, what should your bench look like if you're a top 4 team every week?
Hey Guillotine Leaguers! After a quick in-season vacation, I’m back answering questions from you, the readers. If you have a specific Guillotine-related question you want answered in this column, shoot me a tweet @jakenagy98 on the former Twitter. If you have questions about my trip to Munich, Germany, for Oktoberfest, the answers are yes, the beer was really good and yes, I accidentally ripped a hole in the crotch area of my rented lederhosen and the nice ladies at the rental store laughed at me. What, you weren’t asking about that? Oh, my bad. Anyway…
Hey Jake, you haven’t shut up about saving your FAAB in any of your columns thus far. Have you adjusted your bidding strategy now that bye weeks have started?
Great question, overly aggressive reader! Bring that energy to the league chat. In fact, I have adjusted my FAAB habits. While I was away, I spent over 40% of my FAAB on Josh Jacobs in my home league for my team that was a consistent bottom feeder due to the loss of Malik Nabers. Why? Jacobs has already had his bye! I now have a rock solid RB1 for the rest of the season, barring injury (**furiously knocks on wood**).
Charch often reduces his bid recommendations for certain players based upon their bye week, especially if it’s within the next four weeks. The inverse is also true for us here at Fantasy Life. I will inflate my bids and get aggressive for top-tier guys that have already had their byes, even at this point in the season if it makes sense for my team. Matthew Freedman penned a concise summary of endgame Guillotine strategy a couple weeks back, summating that you need eight of the top 32 players in fantasy football at the end of the season to win your league. The bottom ~25% of that pool usually doesn’t become clear until season end, but guys like Bijan Robinson, Josh Jacobs, and Justin Jefferson will obviously be in that pool come Weeks 14-17. If they’re available in your league and you want or need them real bad, go get them.
Go FantasyLife+
Your league is unique. Your advice should be too. Get personalized tools, rankings, and projections tailored to your fantasy football league settings.
If you’re playing in a standard 18-team Guillotine League, there are now 12 teams remaining. If you would not feel comfortable bringing your starting lineup into your regular old 12-team home league, you should open up the FAAB budget and spend some to shore up your soft spots. This is also a nice even number that can help you put your team into one of three buckets based upon your scoring average relative to your leaguemates:
- Strong Starters: if you’re in your league’s top four, you should ideally have 80-95% of your FAAB remaining. Don’t get greedy unless you have an important looming bye. Stack your bench with priority handcuffs like Jaydon Blue and Tyler Allgeier.
- Middling Managers: if you’re in your league’s middle four, you should have 65-80% of your FAAB remaining. Go after some guys with late byes, or some cheaper players that have already had theirs, like Jordan Addison or Tucker Kraft.
- Basement Bozos: This is a term of endearment - it applies to me, after all! If you’re in your league’s bottom four, I would not blame you if you had around 50-65% of your FAAB remaining. The aforementioned Robinson, Jacobs, and Jefferson would be great targets for you.
How are you preparing for the Tight End Byepocalypse next week?
Great question, astute, forward-thinking reader! There are six teams on bye next week, and three of them deploy a tight end that’s likely been a fixture of your starting lineup: Arizona (Trey McBride); Detroit (Sam LaPorta); and Las Vegas (Brock Bowers). Now, the Bowers drafters and scoopers among us that have miraculously navigated their way to Week 8 are used to working the waiver wire. For the rest of us, it can’t hurt to be prepared. Looking ahead to next week, here are some bargain bin tight ends you should pick up this week, based upon the Fantasy Life DVP Tool (which uses PPR, by the way).
- Dalton Kincaid was the sixth-most chopped player this week and his bye week likely drives his price down. Carolina allows the second-most points and the highest fantasy boost to opposing tight ends.
- Mason Taylor gets a Bengals defense allowing the most fantasy points and the highest fantasy boost to opposing tight ends. Garrett Wilson likely misses this week and next, leaving Taylor as the top target earner alongside Breece Hall, for whatever that’s worth in Jets land these days.
- On the other side of that matchup, you could probably pick up Bengals Tight End Noah Fant for $0 today. Much to Ian’s dismay, Mike Gesicki will miss significant time, leaving Fant as the TE1 in Cincy, again, for whatever that’s worth. The Jets allow the fifth-most points per game and the third-highest fantasy boost to opposing tight ends.
- Hear me out: Kyle Pitts! Miami allows the seventh-most points per game and sixth-highest fantasy boost to the position.
How can I apply the Utilization Report to my Guillotine League?
Great question, Definitely Not Dwain! If you want the full utilization breakdown, check out Dwain’s musings over at the full Utilization Report. In my opinion, it’s the best mid-week breakdown in fantasy football. We’re focused on how to apply Dwain’s points to our Guillotine Leagues.
This week, I’d like to circle back to Freedman’s point on that 32-player endgame pool. In terms of Utilization Score, you’re going to want as many players at 80 or higher for the Guillotine League endgame. Coincidentally, around 25-30 players finish the season at or above the 80 mark, so that’s a great place to start identifying endgame talent, especially players that can be snagged for cheap right now, such as:
- Ashton Jeanty, D’Andre Swift, and Saquon Barkley are hovering around 80, but all have clear paths to elite production. Jeanty and Barkley in particular are probably the cheapest they will be all season on the waiver wire.
- Chris Olave has an 80 Utilization Score and is going to be substantially cheaper than other guys in that range. He’s also been the center of trade speculation on Saints Twitter. It’s a dark time for us.
- There are usually four or five tight ends that clear 80 each season. Those are your endgame tight ends. Right now, those players are Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goedert, and Tyler Warren. Now, which one is the polar bear in Arlington, Texas? Trick question, geography nerds, it’s Goedert. I’d bet Brock Bowers replaces him in that group by season end. I usually don’t advocate for holding injured players, but if you can get Bowers for cheap, he’s worth it.
