Week 14 NFL DFS Picks and Strategy: Bills, Colts WRs and More Targets

We are running out of main slates as this year slips away, so let's dive right in.

Here are ten tips for the Week 14 slate on Underdog. These are mostly geared for the large-field Battle Royale contest with 40,200 entrants and a $30,000 top prize, but obviously, the player takes can be applied to other contests as well.

Let's dig in …

1. A Bounce-Back Slate?

In Week 13, we didn't have a single game with a total over 45. The oddsmakers nailed it, too. It ended up being the week with the fewest fantasy points per offense of the entire year. Woof.

The winning Battle Royale team only needed 117.4 points to get it done (Jacoby Brissett > Trey McBride, Ladd McConkey + Kimani Vidal, Bijan Robinson and Nico Collins). Spoiler alert: it wasn't mine.

I would bet on more scoring this week, though (even if once again we are losing the best game to TNF). Bills/Bengals (52.5), Rams/Cardinals (48), Colts/Jaguars (47.5) all look very points-friendly to me.

2. Some Things Never Change

The Bills won the weekly raffle for who gets to torch the Bengals for a bunch of fantasy points. Cincinnati remains league-worst against RBs and TEs and second-worst against QBs. There's no sneaking James Cook (ADP 4.2) and Josh Allen (6.8) past anyone, but I do really like Dalton Kincaid (ADP 32.8) in this spot even off the extended absence.

As Freedman notes here, he's been sneaky good this year when healthy (12.4 yards per target, 11.1% TD rate). He'll be paired frequently with Allen (especially after Khalil Shakir flopped last week), so don't hesitate to play him as a one-off. Even if he doesn't return this week, the swaps at TE are solid this week (I'm going to share another TE sleeper below).

3. Learn to Love Again?

The Packers passing offense finally got going on Thanksgiving as Jordan Love threw for 234 yards and 4 TDs. Now he's back home vs. a Chicago team that gives up the third-biggest fantasy boost to opposing QBs:

The Packers have the fifth-highest point total on the slate (25.5), and Love is cheap, too. He's currently the QB9 with an ADP of 36.

Christian Watson (ADP 33.5) is getting drafted some, but the rest of the pass catchers are completely free. We might even get Jayden Reed back this week to further boost the ceiling. If you can't find a direct stack you like, I don't mind the idea of Love + Chicago RB either. Speaking of which …

4. The Bears RBs Are Being Overlooked

It's not the greatest matchup in the world, but it's impossible to ignore 1) how good the Bears RBs are playing and 2) how surprisingly jacked Ben Johnson is with his shirt off. With D'Andre Swift the more expensive of the two (ADP 35.2; RB13), I like the idea of clicking a completely discarded Kyle Monangai (ADP 35.9; RB18). He's scored a TD in four straight games and has only one game below 10 fantasy points in the last five weeks. The Packers are also very banged up right now and could be without EDGE Lukas Van Ness (foot), DTs Devonte Wyatt (ankle) and Karl Brooks (ankle), and LB Quay Walker (neck).

NOTE: Keep an eye on Monangai's health; he missed practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury.

5. Can lightning strike twice in the same offense?

The fourth-place team in Week 13 rolled out the sicko stack of Tyrod Taylor (1.07% owned) to Adonai Mitchell (0.88%). I've previously talked about not chasing waterfalls, but I think you can go back to this particular well in Week 14 contests.

For one, the Dolphins rank No. 32 in defensive dropback success rate (52.7%), per Freedman. Taylor, who is QB20 on the week, also has shown a solid rushing floor (21-111-1 across three starts).

Pair that with a red-hot Mitchell (ADP: 35.1; WR17) with an elite role (92% route participation and 32% target share as a starter), and you have the ingredients for an encore. Mitchell feels a lot like Michael Wilson did during that two-game stretch without Marvin Harrison. Hop on the bandwagon now before it gets crowded.

6. The Week 14 Q-tag meta game

There's a lot of enthusiasm right now for Jordan Mason, and rightfully so. If Aaron Jones doesn't go, he'll get all of the base work against a bad Commanders defense, which gives up the fourth-most .5 PPR points per game.

With that said–you absolutely can't select him in drafts until Aaron Jones is ruled out. Jones is currently listed as day-to-day (he got in an LP on Wednesday) and would ruin the Mason volume thesis if he plays. Instead, simply click Jones as a placeholder for the Vikings backfield. If he plays, nice, you just got a sleeper at a good price. If he doesn't go, you can swap him to Mason.

REMINDER: If you are unfamiliar with these swap dynamics, I have an entirely free course on how to execute them.

7. To The Window, To The Wall-er

If you are rolling out a Taylor-to-Mitchell stack, or just in need of a unique piece in your lineup, can I interest you in everyone's favorite oft-injured rapper turned geriatric TE? That doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement, but Darren Waller has been legitimately great whenever he's on the field. In his five games, he's No. 5 TE in air yards share (aka nice downfield role) and No. 2 in endzone target share (aka he's Tua's go-to target when they get in scoring range).

As the TE10, he looks like an awesome scroll-down target in a solid matchup (Jets are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs).

8. Brissett to Wilson encore?

I'm kind of shocked by how little interest there is in Jacoby Brissett (ADP: 34.6; QB7) and Michael Wilson (ADP 34.4; WR16) this week, considering how good/consistent Brissett has been and how good Wilson has been without Marvin Harrison Jr. in the lineup (he missed practice Wednesday with a heel injury).

It's not the greatest matchup on paper, but we just saw Bryce Young put up a solid fantasy day against the Rams, and you know the volume will be there. Feel free to treat this spot like the Vikings and select Harrison Jr. for now.

9. Bam Bam

Speaking of lack of Cardinals enthusiasm, how about a round of applause for Bam Knight (ADP: 36; RB32)? Over the past three weeks, he's …

Scored a TD in every game
Caught at least 3 balls
Averaged 13 fantasy points per game

Those numbers would look even more impressive if a penalty had not been called on this monster TD run vs. San Francisco.

TLDR: Bam has some juice, and it's like no one even cares. With Trey Benson more of a concept than a tangible thing at this point, I love taking stabs on Knight at the end of drafts this week.

10. Take stabs on Colts WRs

I think there's a pretty clear way to play the Colts right now:

Jonathan Taylor
OR: one of Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, or Michael Pittman Jr.

With Daniel Jones not rushing at all right now (and no longer a threat for rushing TDs), his upside is extremely capped. However, he's still chucking the ball downfield and can support a 20-point score from a pass catcher.

Via the UR: Over the last four games, Pierce has averaged 6.3 targets versus 6.5 for Michael Pittman Jr. However, Pierce's Utilization Score is 70 versus 59 for Pittman because his targets have led to 111.5 air yards per game, dwarfing Pittman's 56. Pierce is a WR3 with WR2 upside.

Both Pierce and Pittman Jr. are free in drafts this week, and I'll be rotating through them on various builds. I like the idea of one of them opposite Trevor Lawrence—a QB who can still generate points on the ground.

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Good luck this week, everyone. I'll be in Kansas City this weekend for Underdog's Dawg Bowl live final. I'll have a couple of shows from the venue, including a full Week 14 preview.